The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off an excellent season in which they surprised everyone with a 13-4 record, just one year after going 4-13. They are expected to make the playoffs once again in 2026, but sustained success in the NFL is extremely difficult, and every year, there are teams that fall below expectations. Here are the five biggest reasons the Jaguars could make or miss the playoffs.
Five reasons the Jaguars could make or miss the playoffs
Turnover dropoff
In 2025, the Jaguars’ defense improved dramatically due to its ability to force turnovers, forcing the second-most in the NFL with 31. Not only did this allow the offense extra scoring chances, but it also granted them the best average field position. Chances are, this level of turnover creation will not repeat. The offense will have to sustain longer drives on fewer possessions, and the defense will have to get off the field more consistently.
Trevor Lawrence’s ascension
Through five years, Trevor Lawrence has been extremely up and down, learning multiple systems and having a revolving door at wide receiver. Once he became comfortable in Liam Coen’s system, he had the best stretch of his career, and the Jaguars were unstoppable. Lawrence’s confidence, footwork, and accuracy all came together last season at the right time. In his second season under Coen, he should be able to get off to a faster start, which will only help the Jaguars’ playoff chances.
Pass rush
The Jaguars’ defense was able to mask a lot of their problems through turnovers in 2025. One of those problems was the lack of a consistent pass rush. They recorded just 32 sacks on the season, which ranked 29th in the NFL. Defensive end Travon Walker dealt with injuries throughout the season, and the interior pass rush was a lackluster unit.
While they have made moves to address the pass rush by bringing in Ruke Orhorhoro and Albert Regis, they are still unknown commodities and are not yet a formidable unit.
Strength of schedule
A team’s strength of schedule varies every year. In 2025, the Jaguars faced multiple elite opponents, but also faced some bottom-feeders that they were able to capitalize on. 2026 is expected to look much different as they will face eight opponents who won at least 10 games the previous season. Teams such as the Cowboys, Titans, Bengals, and Commanders are also expected to improve drastically as well, and there may not be many easy games for the Jaguars this season.
Good teams win enough games to make it to the playoffs regardless of their strength of schedule, but higher expectations mixed with a very difficult slate of opponents will make it much more difficult for the Jaguars to string wins together.
New additions
The Jaguars were not very active in free agency, signing just one outside free agent. However, they improved in some key areas that affected their play last season. These moves went under the radar from the national media, but can help the Jaguars along the margins and elevate some areas where they are weaker.
Travis Hunter will replace Greg Newsome II as the full-time outside cornerback and immediately improve the starting secondary. Chris Rodriguez Jr. will be alongside Bhayshul Tuten at running back, offering a different dynamic as a tackle-breaker that will give the Jaguars options in the running game.
The tight end group saw some major changes, selecting Nate Boerkircher and Tanner Koziol in the 2026 draft. Boerkircher will give the offensive line a boost in the run and pass blocking, and Koziol’s massive frame and contested-catch ability give the Jaguars another pass-catching option.
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