Sunday, Jan 18
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears 6:30 p.m. EST
Now, to the make-or-break game. Many will have a lot of ownership in this game, and since it’s the last game on the slate, we should know where our lineups stand. Will you be on pins and needles needing a big game from QB Matt Stafford, WR Puka Nacua, or TE Colston Loveland? Many of you will be hoping for all to have huge games, so in many instances, this game may be the most important. It’s going to be extremely cold with some wind, but don’t let that get into your head. Play this game as you normally would.
I know many want to start with the Rams passing game, but I think they want to run the football against a Bears defense that allows 5 yards per carry. I know the Bears stuffed the Packers’ run game last week, but the Packers’ offensive line is a mess. Don’t let recency bias fool you. The problem with the Rams’ running game is picking the right running back, as Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are splitting carries. I would be shocked if the Rams do not score a rushing touchdown, so I will be playing one of the backs in many of my lineups, leaning on Williams, as he is the veteran with the better track record.
As for the Rams’ passing game, we know Matt Stafford can throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, so he will make many lineups where I don’t have the Rams’ running game. He has arguably two of the top three receivers on the slate with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. I’m not worried about the weather because Nacua is a do-it-all receiver. I don’t think it’s going to affect him, and we’ve seen Adams play in Green Bay for years, and the weather does not bother him either. I am leaning on the vet Adams, as I think he will score from in close because I think Stafford will trust him in the red zone. Don’t forget about tight ends Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee. It may just take a few catches and a touchdown to be the winning tight end. Let’s lean on Parkinson as he has had double-digit points in three straight games.
I think the Bears would love to run the ball, too, because their passing game doesn’t seem to pick up until it’s needed. RB D’Andre Swift is getting more volume than RB Kyle Monangaiand has bigger boom potential. I don’t know how effective he will be, but the Rams can be run on at times. As for the passing game, it’s hard to know what to expect because QB Caleb Williams has been flat to start three straight games, then it just picks up in the late 3rd, early 4th quarter. If they fall behind and rely on that against the Rams, they will be in big trouble because the Rams can rush the passer much better than most teams.
My interest in Williams and that passing game is low, aside from TE Colston Loveland. Loveland has three straight 20-plus games, and he is far and above the best tight end on the slate. As for the receivers, it’s been inconsistent, but DJ Moore has had the better games over the past several weeks. I know many like WR Luther Burden, but he had only two games with more than 15 points all season. Sure, he has the ability, but I can’t rely on that. Same with WR Rome Odunze, who has been hobbled with injuries.
In conclusion, we’ve seen both teams play high-scoring games last week, but I have a feeling this game won’t live up toexpectations. I think the Rams will win, so I like the running game and Adams in the receiving game. I think their defense could make some big plays. As for the Bears, I’m very uncomfortable playing them outside of Loveland. They are just too inconsistent, and I could see the Rams really pressure them into turnovers. Maybe you aren’t like me, and you think the Bears are going to win. If you think the Bears win, you have to look at all aspects of their offense, because they will need to score in the mid- to upper-20s to win this game. I would be inclined to stack Williams with Loveland and either Swift or Moore.
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