Sunday, Jan 18
Houston Texans at New England Patriots 3:00 p.m. EST
This game scares me. It’s a game I don’t want to play, but I feel like everybody doesn’t want to play this game. Both teams have excellent defenses, and I think everyone will want to play under the 41 Vegas total, which always leads me to the over. Another scary feeling I have is that there is nobody from the Texans I want to play, yet they are only three points underdogs on the road vs. the 1 seed. Something isn’t adding up, but then again, I don’t want to overthink it either.
I can’t imagine the Texans running the football as effectively as they did Monday night against the Steelers. I can’t get behind RB Woody Marks as a runner. Can he do enough in the passing game? He hasn’t had many receptions of late, but he can. He is a good pass catcher, and against this defense, he may be needed more in the passing game, especially since the Patriots like to blitz. I can see a scenario where they get a big play or two on screen passes.
Outside of that, where is the production coming from? I don’t think WR Nico Collins will play, as he was wobbling as he went off the field from a concussion. So, do we see WR Christian Kirk explode like he did last week? At his price point, he doesn’t need to, but he hadn’t done anything all year until Monday, so I don’t know if I can play him. At the same time, he could be the go-to guy. I hate being wishy – washy on a player, but that’s the category I have to put Kirk in.
TE Dalton Schultz is my logical candidate because he is more reliable than young receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. I think I’m more apt to play the Patriots defense because the Texans’ offensive line isn’t very good, and we saw QB CJ Stroud struggle last week. He fumbled the ball, had trouble holding onto snaps, and he will throw into coverage. He was lucky the Texans dominated on defense and on the ground. If they had to rely on his arm, they would have been in big trouble, and it doesn’t get better this week vs. a very good Patriots’ pass defense. I think the Patriots’ pass defense may score a touchdown to break the slate. They are expensive, but their ownership is lower because of it.
I don’t want to play the Patriots’ offense, but I’m going to make a case for QB Drake Maye. The Patriots are so well coached and spread the ball around that Maye can find some open spots. Who will get open? I don’t know, and that’s not a good answer, but I can see him spreading balls to eight different receivers. Another case I will make for Maye is his legs. He may have to take off running more than he is accustomed to, and if he can get 50 yards and a touchdown, he’s on his way. Not that I’m banking on it, but that’s how he can make the winning lineups, plus his ownership is projected at only 15%. As for the running game, the backfield is split between Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, which cancels them out. Both will have to be used in the passing game, but if I had to choose, it would be Henderson for his ability to score from anywhere on the field.
In conclusion, on paper, this should be a low-scoring game, but luckily, it’s not played on paper. I like both defenses, but I can see a scenario where they set up short fields for the offense. It’s difficult to endorse the offensive players fully, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see TE Dalton Schultz or QB Drake Maye in a winning lineup alongside either defense.
