9) Courtland Sutton vs. Raiders
Sutton has been up and down, and his teammate, Troy Franklin, has actually been more involved in the Broncos’ pass attack over the last eight games, drawing 58 targets to Sutton’s 53. Franklin has also been the lead target for Bo Nix in six of those eight games, so it’s quite possible that opposing defenses may start to game plan more for the second-year player going forward. In this matchup against the Raiders, it shouldn’t matter too much, as their secondary is ranked 21st against the pass, and that number is actually helped by the number of games the Raiders have lost. Teams have been less pass-heavy in the second halves of games while they lean on their run game to grind out the clock. Sutton still has number 1 receiver talent, and I expect this to be a big game for him. We just need to hope that Bo Nix can come out throwing from the start, rather than wait for the 4th quarter as has been his habit lately.
10) Ladd McConkey vs. Steelers
The matchup is about as good as it gets this week for Justin Herbert and his pass catchers as they take on a Pittsburgh team that is ranked 32nd overall against the pass. The matchup just couldn’t be better, but we do have to worry slightly that the Chargers are just too loaded at receiver right now. McConkey is the default alpha in most of our minds, mostly because he had the best season of the group last year and was the highest drafted in all of our fantasy leagues.
He has been amazing over the last five weeks after a sluggish start, but we did see his opportunities drop a bit last week. His 6 targets were tied for the team lead along with Quenten Johnston, with Oronde Gadsden and Keenan Allen right behind with 5 apiece. I think that’s how it’s going to be every week for the Chargers receivers. Those 4 players are going to chop up about 75-80% of Justin Herbert’s pass attempts. If he chucks it up 55 times like he did against the Colts, then there’s room for Ladd to get 15 targets, while Allen gets 14 and Gadsden and Johnston combine for another 15. How much do we expect Herbert to have to throw it this week against Pittsburgh? That’s the question we will need to answer before we can figure out what share of that will go to Ladd. I expect Ladd to get closer to 10 looks this week, and that should be plenty enough to do damage against the Steelers and their “old timers day” pass defense.
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