After being the most consistent tight end in fantasy football for over a decade, Chiefs legend Travis Kelce started to slow down last year. Starting and appearing in 16 games, the veteran finished his age-35 season as the TE5 with 97 receptions for 823 yards and three touchdowns – good numbers for most tight ends, but this was easily his worst season since the 2015 campaign. Now another year older, does the future Hall of Famer have anything left, or should you avoid him in all formats?
Note: all ADP data assumes one-quarterback, PPR scoring without a tight end premium.
Fantasy Football: Travis Kelce 2025 Outlook
It feels strange to say that someone who finished the season with 97 receptions had a disappointing season, but that’s how high Kelce set the bar over the past decade. While his raw numbers are solid, we know Father Time is undefeated, and the underlying numbers suggest Kelce’s time is coming to an end. Despite being the only consistent target for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, Kelce finished last year with 1.67 yards per route run (YPRR), the 21st-best mark in the league. By comparison, he recorded 2.01 YPRR in 2023 and 2.44 YPRR in 2022. This is a discouraging downward trend that suggests a decline, and the film confirms that analysis.
According to Pro Football Focus, Kelce concluded 2024 with a 71.7 PFF grade, the 13th-best mark out of 74 eligible players. Again, this isn’t a bad thing, and nobody is saying Kelce should be out of the league. However, this is the first time since 2015 he’s finished outside the top four at his position, which once again suggests he’s slowing down. Maybe this is a one- or two-year skid, but players generally don’t improve in their mid- to late-30s.
Target Projection
Volume is king in fantasy football, and even if his physical skills drop off, Travis Kelce will be a viable fantasy football option if he receives another 133 targets. Unfortunately for Kelce, that probably won’t happen. The Chiefs suffered injury after injury at the wide receiver position last year, leaving Kelce as the only healthy option for most of the season. In the three games Rashee Rice started and finished, Kelce recorded just eight receptions for 69 yards and zero touchdowns on 12 targets. When extrapolated to a full 17-game season, Kelce was on pace to finish with just 45 receptions for 391 yards.
Making rash decisions on three-game samples can be dangerous, and nobody should expect Travis Kelce to completely disappear in fantasy football. However, seeing that Rice probably won’t face a suspension in 2025, nobody should be surprised if an aging Kelce becomes the third or fourth option in this passing attack. He’s still capable of being a good role player and an above-average real-life tight end, but his days of fantasy dominance are probably over.
Travis Kelce Fantasy Football ADP
As of this posting, FantasyCalc has Travis Kelce going off the board as the TE5 in fantasy football with the 67th overall pick. This puts him in the same general range as tight ends like T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta, and receivers like Chris Godwin and Courtland Sutton. He may finish as the TE5, but taking him at this point in drafts is not a wise investment.
Anyone who’s played fantasy football for a while knows that the position is generally a barren wasteland. Unless you have one of the elite players at the position, the difference between the TE5 and the TE14 usually comes down to dumb luck. This year, the elite players are Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and arguably George Kittle. Kelce probably won’t get you that many more points than someone like David Njoku, and he’s going much later in drafts. If you miss out on one of the elite tight ends, just grab a dart throw at the end of the draft and use the middle rounds to fortify your roster with running backs and wide receivers.
Main Photo: Sam Navarro – Imagn Images
