The Los Angeles Chargers entered the legal tampering period in salary cap hell. Desperate to clear money, they had no choice but to release Mike Williams and restructure the deals of pass rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. With the money settled, most believed that wide receiver Keenan Allen was safe. That assumption turned out to be false, as Los Angeles dealt their longtime star to the Chicago Bears in a shocking trade. At first glance, the Bears appear to have won the Keenan Allen trade, but there are a few stats to justify the Chargers decision.
6 Stats That Explain the Shocking Keenan Allen Trade
1,243 – Receiving Yards
At the end of the day, a wide receiver’s job is to catch the ball and pick up yards, and these stats show that Keenan Allen was remarkably good at getting that done in 2023. Starting and appearing in 13 games, the wideout finished the season by catching 108 passes for 1,243 receiving yards. Despite missing four games and catching passes from Easton Stick down the stretch, the former third-round pick still finished with the 11th-most receiving yards in the league. While Herbert force-fed him targets due to the lack of reliable options, the fact he was able to deliver this type of production shows that he’s still got something left in his tank.
2.48 – Yards Per Route Run
Volume is great, but the efficiency stats are what make Keenan Allen shine. Not only did Allen receive a massive target share, but he made the mots of his opportunities. Allen’s 2.48 yards per route run ranked 11th in the league, an impressive figure for a receiver who refuses to let age catch up to him.
86.3 – PFF Grade
Keenan Allen put up great numbers last year, but stats only tell a part of the story. To get a glimpse of how good the wide receiver was, you need to look at the film. Seeing as we don’t have time for a full-season tape breakdown right now, we’ll have to rely on Pro Football Focus. According to their film-based analysis, Allen’s 86.3 grade was the 11th-best in the league. By just about every meaningful metric, Allen was a borderline top-10 receiver last year, and the Bears should be praised for using the trade market to surround Caleb Williams with playmaking talent like D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen.
$34.7 Million – Cap Hit Before Trade
The salary cap is not a myth, and every single player runs the risk of their production no longer matching their price. Before the trade, Keenan Allen had the highest cap hit among wide receivers at $34.7 million. Allen is good, but he’s not worth that. Now entering the final year of his deal, the Chargers made the tough decision to send him off to a new home. While Los Angeles took a $11.6 million dead cap hit to send him away, they cleared up plenty of money to build the team in Harbaugh’s image.
32 – Keenan Allen’s Age
Some teams are willing to overpay for talented players if said player is a part of the long-term vision. However, given the fact that Keenan Allen is entering his age-32 season, he probably wasn’t long for the Chargers anyway. Stats show that wide receivers tend to slow down once they hit 30, so Keenan Allen was already playing on borrowed time. While he was only under contract for one more season, it’s clear Harbaugh would rather have a draft pick in a loaded wide receiver class instead of one season of an aging veteran.
40.2% – Michigan’s Pass Rate
The Chargers could’ve parted ways with a few veterans to clear up salary cap space. However, Jim Harbaugh chose to move on from Keenan Allen and Mike Williams because the stats show he’s just not a big fan of the forward pass. You could excuse his low pass rate during his stint with the 49ers, as his quarterbacks were the unremarkable Alex Smith and the mobile Colin Kaepernick. What can’t be excused, however, is his low pass rate with Michigan.
According to Denny Carter, Michigan’s 40.2% qualifying pass rate in 2022 was the 121st out of 130 eligible teams. Things didn’t improve too much in 2023, as the team finished 117th out of 130 in the same metric. This all happened despite having J.J. McCarthy under center, a passer likely to be a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Even though he has Justin Herbert now, Harbaugh will likely continue to operate a run-heavy offense. While one could certainly question the logic behind such a decision, the stats show that this philosophy makes Keenan Allen expendable.
Jim Harbaugh's 49ers
2011: 31st in pass attempts
2012: 31st
2013: 32nd
2014: 29thJim Harbaugh's Michigan in 2023 was 117th out of 130 qualifying teams in pass rate (40.2%). In 2022, they were 121st out of 130. https://t.co/4syZDtsBAe
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) January 26, 2024
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck – USA Today Sports
