Trying to set expectations for an NFL rookie is never an easy task. A lot goes into the equation. First, it depends on what position the rookie plays. History has proven it is more difficult for a wide receiver in their first year. While running backs have a better chance of contributing immediately. Then, you have to add in which round the rookie was selected. The higher the pick, the higher the expectations are. These are all factors we thought about for the expectations of 2023 Green Bay Packers first-round pick Lukas Van Ness this season.
The Expectations in Year One for Lukas Van Ness
In 2022, five edge pass rushers were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Those players were Travon Walker (Jacksonville Jaguars), Aidan Hutchinson (Detroit Lions), Kayvon Thibodeaux (New York Giants), Jermaine Johnson (New York Jets), and George Karlaftis (Kansas City Chiefs). Each one’s contribution was different, which makes gauging the expectations of Lukas Van Ness more difficult.
Out of the five rookies, Hutchinson registered the most sacks. He posted nine and a half sacks for the Lions. His ability was a big factor, but not the only factor. The Lions had a major hole at defensive end. Hutchinson was an immediate starter and started all 17 games. The case was the same for Karlaftis. While he was the last of the five rookies to be drafted, he started 17 games for the Chiefs. He posted six sacks, the second most out of the five.
Walker and Thibodeaux started 15 and 14 games for their respective teams, posting three and a half sacks and four sacks. Johnson played in 14 games but didn’t start any. In a part-time role, he finished with two and a half sacks.
So, knowing this, trying to forecast how much Van Ness will play in 2023 isn’t cut and dry. At this point, only a week into training camp, nobody really knows how many snaps Van Ness will get in 2023.
Proven Contributor as a Part-Time Player
The Packers received some exciting news this week when top pass rusher Rashan Gary was activated off the PUP list. Having Gary, who suffered a season-ending injury in 2022, back in the fold is a big addition to the Green Bay Packers defense.
But just because Gary is off the PUP list it doesn’t mean that he will be ready to step in immediately as a full-time player. There is no doubt that Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur will take it slow with him. Gary is a game changer and with being just 25 years old he has a lot of good football in his future. They aren’t going to gamble his future just for this season.
One possible plan for Gary would be to use him in obvious passing situations. This would still allow Joe Barry to utilize Gary in what he does best, getting to the quarterback. The plan would force Van Ness into a part-time role, but Van Ness has a history of being successful in that type of role.
In his redshirt sophomore season, his last at Iowa, Van Ness was part of a defensive line rotation. He was one of the better defensive linemen at Iowa, but the Hawkeyes implemented a multi-player rotation. Even with playing a part-time role, Van Ness posted numbers that would make most full-time players envious. He posted 17 solo tackles, 11 tackles for loss, and six and a half sacks.
Asking Van Ness to play a part-time role won’t be foreign to the rookie. It’s also a role that he has proven to thrive at.
Ability to Play Multiple Positions
If Barry does end up playing Gary and Preston Smith on the edge in passing situations it doesn’t mean Lukas Van Ness will be standing on the sidelines. One of the reasons Gutekunst grabbed Van Ness in the first round was his ability to line up all along the defensive line. It’s something that Barry could, and should, utilize this season.
TJ Slaton, Kenny Clark, and Devonte Wyatt are expected to be the starters on the defensive line. Clark is a proven interior pass rusher. While Wyatt showed promise as a pass rusher in his rookie season in 2022. Out of the three, Slaton is the weakest pass rusher out of the group.
If Barry wants to put his best pass rushers on the field at the same time, inserting Van Ness for Slaton would be the best call. Van Ness had success lining up inside at Iowa and his experience could end up benefitting the Packers defense.
Forecast for 2023
Unlike Jordan Love, who had the benefit to sit behind Aaron Rodgers for two years, Lukas Van Ness will see a lot of playing time in his rookie season. While some didn’t think a pass rusher was a need leading up to the draft, selecting Van Ness could turn out to be a very important selection.
We expect Van Ness to see a lot of snaps this season. If Gary is brought along slowly to start the season, fans should expect Van Ness to be the starter opposite of Smith. Even when Gary returns as a full-time starter, we believe that you could see Van Ness lined up next to him on passing downs.
Packers fans should expect at least four sacks from Van Ness this season, with maybe several of them coming as an interior pass rusher. He will start at least a handful of games but most of all, he will be a big part of the Green Bay Packers defense in 2023.
Main Photo: Tork Mason-USA TODAY NETWORK
