The Minnesota Vikings have officially parted ways with running back Dalvin Cook, which means that Alexander Mattison has a chance to be a major player in fantasy football. After spending the first four years of his career as one of the NFL’s elite handcuffs, the former third-round pick is finally ready to lead his backfield. Is he up for the challenge, or will he fall short of expectations?
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Fantasy Football: Alexander Mattison Projections Without Dalvin Cook
Alexander Mattison Himself
Running back production has more to do with blocking and scheme than the actual runner themselves, which is why handcuffs can be effective in short stretches. However, a player needs talent to consistently earn those opportunities, and is Alexander Mattison good enough to earn a massive workload in fantasy football?
One of the best things about Dalvin Cook was his ability to produce a fantasy-relevant week on just one or two touches. While the running back’s large workload always ensured a safe floor, Cook had the breakaway speed to blow past defenses and put up huge plays. Mattison and his 4.67 40-yard dash time do not have that same ability, but his 75th-percentile burst score shows that he has the minimum athleticism required to play the position.
While he has yet to earn a high workload at the NFL level, it’s worth noting that Boise State trusted him to handle a high percentage of the touches. According to PlayerProfiler, he finished his collegiate career with a 28.7% dominator rating and a 59th percentile target share. Again, nobody is saying he’s the second coming of Ladanian Tomlinson, but all of these metrics imply that he can handle starting duties on an NFL team.
Of course, all of these predictive metrics don’t mean anything if he’s not actually good on the football field. Last year, Mattison averaged a disappointing 3.8 yards per carry, but advanced metrics suggest he was better than that number might suggest. The running back finished the 2022 season with a 71.3 PFF grade, which ranked 35th out of 60 eligible players, and his 31.5% juke rate and 2.56 yards created per touch are both respectable values.
Reminder that Alexander Mattison is 24 years young pic.twitter.com/Z8lBnvKPm3
— c (@WoIIin) June 8, 2023
All of this is one long way of saying that Alexander Mattison probably has what it takes to be an average to below-average starting running back in the NFL. Players like that can succeed in the right environment, so now we need to see if Minnesota will provide that optimal situation.
The Situation
From the outside looking in, it seems like the Minnesota Vikings believe that Alexander Mattison can be their unquestioned starting running back, which is great news for fantasy football. After all, the team re-signed him to decent money, released Dalvin Cook, and didn’t add any notable competition during the loaded 2023 NFL Draft. The job is Mattison’s to lose, and Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, and Kene Nwangwu aren’t exactly the type of players that are too good to keep off the field.
The #Vikings re-signed RB Alexander Mattison with the plan for him being the starter. While there have been trade talks surrounding Dalvin Cook, no deal materialized. He'll be free, with several teams — including the #Dolphins — set to inquire.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 8, 2023
Anyone that drafted Chase Edmonds last year knows that former backups signed to big-money deals don’t always produce in fantasy football. However, Mattison’s odds are higher than most, as he re-signed with his original team. Once again, using Edmonds as an example, it should have been a red flag that Arizona prioritized re-signing James Conner over the younger Edmonds, as that meant the team didn’t believe in his ability as a starting running back.
Mattison has spent his entire career with the Vikings, so everyone within the organization should be aware of what he can do in a starting role. While Mattison still needs to justify the organization’s belief, the fact that trust exists in the first place is a good sign.
Ultimately, Mattison is probably the 20th to 25th best running back in the NFL with no real competition on the roster. He plays in a good offense that should provide plenty of scoring opportunities, which means he has a relatively safe floor.
It’s too early to say what Alexander Mattison’s average draft position will be in fantasy football, as the Dalvin Cook news only broke yesterday. So, he’ll probably finish in the RB15-20 range, and should be drafted as such.
Main Photo: Daniel Bartel – USA Today Sports
