Just like that, we already have twelve weeks of NFL football in the books. One of my favorite parts is fantasy football. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 14 DraftKings plays.
READ MORE: Week 14 Starts and Sits | NFL MVP Leaders
Week 14 DraftKings Plays
Week 13 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do, and that also goes for fantasy football. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but it also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
For full transparency each week I'll recap my #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week in cash builds!#FantasyFootball#NFL#NFLTwitter #DFS@BlazedRTs@MyFantasyLeague
— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) December 5, 2022
Looking back at Week 13, it was another great week for recommendations. This week 60% of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time the quarterback group led the way at an 80% success rate. Meanwhile, the tight end group brought up the rear at a 20% success rate. Personally, it was another profitable week. We’ll look to get it going even better with the picks and get more profits in the Week 14 DraftKings plays.
- Week 13 – $216 → $286 ($70 PROFIT)
- Year Total – $2,800 → $3,219 ($419 PROFIT)
Joe Burrow (CIN) – $7,000 v CLE
It’s been an awesome year for Joe Burrow so far in 2022. He’s averaging 24.7 DraftKings points per game and has topped the 30-point threshold four times this year including two of his last three games. Only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes are averaging more DraftKings points per game this season. Burrow just got Ja’Marr Chase back last week as well and he looked like his normal self.
The Cleveland Browns have had Burrow’s number to this point in his career but this time things might be different. The Cincinnati Bengals have a 26-point implied team total which is one of the top numbers on the slate. The combined total in this one currently sits at 46.5 points which is the second-highest on the slate. The Browns are not a defense to fear so Burrow should be able to have a nice day here.
Highest Passer Rating since Week 3
Joe Burrow 111.4
Jalen Hurts 110.7
Tua Tagovailoa 110.3 pic.twitter.com/SYc95lLSyu
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 8, 2022
Jared Goff (DET) – $5,600 v MIN
The Detroit Lions playmakers are getting healthier again much to the benefit of Jared Goff and his fantasy outlook. Early in the season, Goff started the season out on fire. Over the first four games, he was averaging 23.7 DraftKings points per game before things fell off a bit. After that point, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift were dealing with injuries and it completely derailed the entire offense, including Goff. Both are healthy and productive once again and so it’s no surprise that Goff was able to put up 24.6 DraftKings points last week.
This week he should have a chance to keep things going as he has an extremely juicy matchup. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year. On top of that, this game has the best game environment by far on the entire slate. With a 51.5-point combined total, the next closest game is five points less. The Lions have a 26.5-point implied team total which is one of the best on the slate. This game will also be played in a dome which boosts both passing offenses. All of this combined with his cheap salary make Goff one of the very best Week 14 DraftKings plays.
Others to Consider: Kirk Cousins (MIN) – $6,100 @ DET, Tyler Huntley (BAL) – $5,500 @ PIT, Geno Smith (SEA) – $6,200 v CAR
Joe Mixon (CIN) – $6,900 v CLE
The Bengals running back position is one of the most fantasy friendly in the NFL. The usage and expected fantasy points are absolutely insane for whoever starts. Look at what Samaje Perine has done in the past three games as an example. He’s averaged more than 24 DraftKings points per game in that span. A lot of it has been incredible usage in the passing game.
Perine has 18 targets over the last three games including seven in each of the past two. Joe Mixon was heavily involved as a pass catcher before sustaining a concussion as well. He’s averaging 5.3 targets per game in 2022 which is the fifth-most among all running backs this season. Mixon is also averaging 4.1 receptions per game which is sixth-most among all running backs this season. Those 17-game paces would put him on pace for around 90 targets and 70 receptions. Throw in the fact he’s on one of the best offenses in the league and handles a big workload of carries as well and it’s easy to see why he’s so enticing.
This week’s matchup against the Browns is a juicy one. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to running backs this year. As previously mentioned, the game environment is great as well with a 46.5-point combined total and the Bengals 26-point implied team total. Should Mixon step back into his normal role, this salary is simply too cheap making him one of the best Week 14 DraftKings plays.
D’Andre Swift (DET) – $5,800 v MIN
D’Andre Swift, like teammate Goff, has taken a similar rollercoaster path to the season so far. The difference for Swift is that he has actually been banged up himself. Swift had a monster 29.5-point performance to open the season and followed up with a 16.7-point performance before getting hurt after that. He missed about a month or so but still didn’t look fully healthy when he came back.
Coach Dan Campbell and Swift himself even admitted as much when they mentioned that he may not be fully healthy until next season. That seemed to be the case with how small his workload and production had been. That was until last week when he saw double-digit carries for the first time since the season-opener. Swift came through as well as he scored more than 20 DraftKings points for the first time since the opening week as well. This week he gets a great matchup against the Vikings. The Vikings are easier to beat through the air than on the ground but Swift is a huge weapon in the passing game. As previously mentioned, this is by far the best game environment so everything is pointing up for Swift.
D'Andre Swift is a league winner
21 fantasy points in Week 13
Week 14 vs MIN: Allow 5th most RecYds/game to RBs
Week 15 vs NYJ: Allow 8th most RecYds/game to RBs
Week 16 vs CAR: Allow 9th most fantasy points to RBs
Week 17 vs CHI: Allow 6th most fantasy points to RBs
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) December 5, 2022
Others to Consider: Christian McCaffrey (SF) – $8,500 v TB, Tony Pollard (DAL) – $6,700 v HOU, Derrick Henry (TEN) – $7,900 v JAX, James Cook (NYJ) – $4,600 v NYJ, Latavius Murray (DEN) – $5,200 v KC
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) – $7,800 v MIN
Starting to sense a theme here? The main three guys for the Detroit Lions are going to be extremely chalky and rightfully so. Amon-Ra St. Brown has put to rest any questions that people had from last season about whether his production was a fluke. He’s been incredible this year. St. Brown’s target-per-route-run rate of 33.8% is second in the NFL among all wide receivers this year. He’s averaging the seventh-most receptions per game (6.9), 11th-most targets per game (9.1), 13th-most receiving yards per game (75.5), and eighth-most DraftKings points per game (19.6) as well this year.
These numbers also include games he left early and played through injuries as well. A truly remarkable season, especially considering how much doubt surrounded him heading into the year. St. Brown has scored at least 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four games including at least 30 DraftKings points in two straight games now. The matchup here is nearly as juicy as it gets. The Vikings have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to wide receivers in 2022. As previously mentioned multiple times, the overall game environment is incredible as well considering the spread, the combined total, and the dome factor. Add it all up and St. Brown is easily one of the best Week 14 DraftKings plays.
Amon-Ra St. Brown last 17 games:
1,534 total yards
Even includes two games from this season where he played just 21 and 10 snaps due to injury. Pretty, pretty, pretty good.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 7, 2022
DJ Moore (CAR) – $5,500 @ SEA
Apparently, DJ Moore can get it done with any quarterback not named Baker Mayfield. Luckily Mayfield is no longer on the Carolina Panthers and Sam Darnold is back at the helm. Darnold is not very good either but at least he’s been able to enable Moore for fantasy purposes. Moore was on bye last week but the previous week he put up 23.3 DraftKings points. That was his second-best output of the season with the highest coming with P.J. Walker at quarterback.
Despite only averaging 11.7 DraftKings points per game this season, a deeper dive shows some encouraging signs for Moore. He still has a 27.2% target share which is 13th among all wide receivers. Moore’s 98.2% route participation is ninth-most among all wide receivers. He actually leads the NFL in both snap share (96.8%) and air yards share (44.6%) this year. This week should be a solid matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have been easier to beat on the ground but aren’t a matchup to be avoided either. Ultimately, Moore is simply too cheap for the combination of talent and volume he brings to the table.
Others to Consider: Phillip Dorsett II (HOU) – $3,000 @ DAL, Zay Jones (JAX) – $4,700 @ TEN, Justin Jefferson (MIN) – $9,000 @ DET, Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) – $7,900 v CLE, Garrett Wilson (NYJ) – $5,900 @ BUF, Stefon Diggs (BUF) – $8,300 v NYJ
Travis Kelce (KC) – $7,600 @ DEN
It looks more like a week to spend down at tight end but when paying up, there aren’t many options better than Travis Kelce. Kelce is enjoying another monster season in 2022. He’s averaging 21.6 DraftKings points which is the most among all tight ends this season. Not only is it the most, but the next closest tight end is Mark Andrews who averages seven points less than Kelce.
That’s a ridiculous feat making Kelce arguably the biggest difference-maker in all of fantasy football. This week Kelce is taking on the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are a good defense in general but are just middle-of-the-road against tight ends. The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 26.5 points. Kelce is the clear-cut alpha target for Patrick Mahomes and should be a big part of them moving the ball and putting points on the board as usual.
Greg Dulcich (DEN) – $3,400 v KC
On the other side of that game, Greg Dulcich is going to be the chalkiest tight end of the week. Three weeks into Dulcich’s career and he was being crowned as the next big thing. Then he put up three straight clunkers and was brought right back to earth very quickly. A lot of that has more to do with the offense as a whole and how bad Russell Wilson has played this year.
Last week Dulcich showed why everyone was so excited about his start. He turned eight targets into six receptions for 85 yards. It’s the second time in his seven-game career that he’s topped 85 yards. This week he should have ample opportunity to turn in another nice game. The Broncos are likely to be without Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy just returned from an injury. They are also 9.5-point underdogs so they should be throwing early and often in this one. The Chiefs aren’t a team to target for tight ends but not one to avoid either. This is simply too cheap for Dulcich with the type of volume he could be in line for in this one making him one of the best Week 14 DraftKings plays.
Greg Dulcich had a 38% target share and 42% air yardage share in Week 13.
He is just the second TE under the age of 23 to record a target share above 35% in a game over the past 10 years.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 5, 2022
Others to Consider: T.J. Hockenson (MIN) – $5,100 @ DET, Austin Hooper (TEN) – $2,900 v JAX, Pat Freiermuth (PIT) – $4,500 v BAL
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I aim to target the heavily favored teams, who usually play with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. My advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Jared Goff
- RB – Derrick Henry
- RB – Joe Mixon
- WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown
- WR – DJ Moore
- WR – Adam Thielen
- TE – Greg Dulcich
- Flex – D’Andre Swift
- DST – Carolina Panthers
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 14 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 15. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!