The fantasy football playoffs are one week away, hopefully, your team is still alive for them. If not thanks for still being a dedicated fantasy manager. The longer the season goes on the more we realize how wrong we all were entering the preseason. Some that stand out to me are that Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, and Marcus Mariota are all top 12 quarterbacks this season. Their preseason average draft positions s were QB35, QB25, and QB31. The main takeaway from that is that Geno Smith is really good and running quarterbacks are a valuable asset for fantasy football. Nonetheless, good luck with the waivers this week and good luck in this last fantasy regular season week. Here is the Week 14 fantasy football starts and sits as the fantasy football playoffs come into view.
Week 14 Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 14
Quarterback Starts: Jared Goff
Jared Goff is coming off a 340-yard passing game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Detroit Lions have won four of five games with the one loss coming against the Buffalo Bills on a game-ending field goal. The Lions have a divisional matchup against the Minnesota Vikings here in week 14. Goff’s home and road split numbers have been a night and day difference. Goff averages five more passing attempts and over 40 yards per game at home compared to on the road. 17 home passing touchdowns and three turnovers at home compared to two touchdowns and seven turnovers on the road. Goff is set up as a strong option to stream against a Minnesota Vikings defense that is dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed and yards per attempt.
Quarterback Sits: Tom Brady and Joe Burrow
Tom Brady was saved by two late touchdowns in week 13 against the New Orleans Saints. A game in which the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had three points through three quarters. Brady leads the NFL in passing attempts but is only sixth in yards and 10th in touchdown passes. Brady has one touchdown or less in eight out of twelve games this season. The Buccaneers will play the number one defense in the NFL against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers allowed two 50+ yard touchdown passes in week 13 to the Miami Dolphins. The Buccaneers are not a big-play offense like the Dolphins so those types of plays can’t be expected. Brady loves targeting the middle of the field but that will be difficult this week against a 49ers defense led by Fred Warner.
certified Fred Warner moment pic.twitter.com/jVcds9E4Cd
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) December 5, 2022
Warner does a great job of eliminating the deep middle of the field and he will look to do that against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Joe Burrow has been hot as of late, with nine touchdowns and two interceptions in his last four games, including out-dueling Patrick Mahomes in week 13. Burrow’s last bad game was against the Cleveland Browns in week 8, a game with three turnovers and only 13 points scored. Burrow has a suspect career against the Browns, with seven turnovers in four games against Cleveland. Burrow is QB4 on the season so sitting him is difficult to do, do not expect a big game from Burrow this week. Burrow’s horrible history against the Browns is a real thing.
Joe Burrow is 3-0 vs. Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs
Joe Burrow is 0-4 vs. Kevin Stefanski's Browns
This is beyond messed up.
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) December 6, 2022
Running Back Starts: Ezekiel Elliott and Isaiah Pacheco
Since week 10 Ezekiel Elliott is RB8 in points per game. The Dallas Cowboys running game has been dominant as of late between Elliott and Tony Pollard. They rank seventh in the NFL in rushing yards and are second in the league in rushing touchdowns. The Cowboys are 17-point favorites this week against the Houston Texans. With that type of number, Zeke should see plenty of work early and late. Pollard breaking out hasn’t affected Zeke’s fantasy numbers. Elliott still leads the Cowboys in red zone carries and has eight rushing touchdowns on the season. The Texans allow 169 yards and over one rushing touchdown per game.
Since taking over as the lead back for the Kansas City Chiefs Isaiah Pacheco is averaging 96 yards on 18 touches per game. Pacheco was out-snapped by Jerick McKinnon in week 13 but that is nothing to worry about. Last week the Chiefs were in a back-and-forth game that required minimal running, with McKinnon being the passing downs back that type of snap share was expected. The previous week Pacheco had a 51 to 34% snap difference with McKinnon. The Chiefs should not be expected to pass much this week, their opponent the Denver Broncos averages 13.8 points per game. That is dead last in the NFL, the Broncos are also 31st in the NFL in the pace of play while trailing. The Broncos punts an average of six times per game which is number one in the NFL. The Chiefs average 30 points per game with a regular amount of possessions. The extra possessions that the Broncos inept offense will give up should help Pacheco get back to that 20-touch number.
Running Back Sits: Rachaad White
Leonard Fournette returned in week 13 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rookie Rachaad White had taken over as the lead back during Fournette’s absence, but White was out-snapped by 15 snaps to Fournette.
Both RBs caught 6 passes, with White earning one more target (8 vs 7) which happened to also be the game-winning touchdown.
But Fournette played a higher percentage of snaps (60% vs 41%) and ran more routes (32, 58% vs 21, 38%)
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 6, 2022
16 of White’s 19 fantasy points in week 13 came as a receiver. Fournette had been the main back in the passing game, will he get that role back? Only time will tell but White losing any snaps to Fournette can’t be good in the immediate future for White in fantasy. What also isn’t good for White or Fournette for that matter is the matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers only allow 75 rushing yards per game.
Wide Receiver Starts: Amon-Ra St Brown
Amon-Ra St Brown has been the best slot receiver in the NFL this season. 22 targets and three touchdowns in the last two weeks. Along with his quarterback, St Brown is on a hot streak. The perfect team to play while on a hot streak is the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings are last in the NFL in passing yards. St Brown has six games with double-digit targets and nine games with at least eight targets. He is an obvious start and has WR1 potential this week against a soft Vikings zone defense.
Wide Receiver Sits: Diontae Johnson
In the last two seasons with Ben Roethlisberger Diontae Johnson averaged 10 targets per game and over 300 in a two-year span. Going into this season the question was how would Johnson do without Big Ben feeding him targets. It has been pretty mixed this season. In two full games where Mitchell Trubisky plays the entire game, Johnson averages 11 targets per game. In every other game, Johnson averages 8 targets per game. Eight is still a good number but the lack of targets doesn’t help Johnson’s lack of big plays. Johnson is outside of the top 20 in yards per catch. Johnson is under 50 yards in six games this season and has only finished with 65+ yards in one game this year.
Tight End Starts: Hunter Henry
Finding reliable tight ends in fantasy has been extremely difficult this year. Unless you drafted Travis Kelce, even then Kelce was TE14 in week 13. Hunter Henry is a good streamer this week if you are desperate at the position. Henry has been mainly disappointing this year for the New England Patriots, for fantasy at least. Henry has passed 40 yards just four times this season. Brevin Jordan was a top-12 tight end in week 13 with only 46 yards so you do not need much to get a good week out of a tight end. Henry and the Patriots will play the Arizona Cardinals in week 14. The Cardinals allow 63 yards on eight tight end targets per game. Both are dead last in the NFL, Henry is a solid option this week.
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