Amazon Prime Video couldn’t have asked for a more entertaining matchup for their debut as the exclusive rights holder for Thursday Night Football. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers aren’t just fierce division rivals with Super Bowl aspirations; they’re also two of the most explosive offenses in the National Football League over the last two seasons. Naturally, bettors should be targeting overs in their Thursday Night Football prop bets, right?
Not so fast.
Just because two juggernauts are locking horns doesn’t mean the game is automatically Over City as far as the sports books are concerned – quite the contrary. Their reputations precede them as much in Vegas as they do on your Prime App. The current total of 54.5 is the highest on the board in this week’s full slate of sixteen games, and the prop bets reflect that anticipation.
How should bettors approach the potential shootout? A balanced portfolio might be the best option:
Thursday Night Football: Top Five Prop Bets to Consider
Austin Ekeler OVER 95.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-125)
The dynamic Chargers running back stumbled to a mere 72 total yards in the ‘Bolts season-opening win against the Las Vegas Raiders. But with 14 rushing attempts producing only 2.6 yards per carry, it should be treated as an outlier at this point and not a harbinger of a massive drop in production.
The dual-threat back cleared 72 in all but three games last season and broke the 95.5-yard barrier ten times. The Arizona Cardinals averaged 4.7 yards per carry in Week 1 against the Chiefs – if the Chargers end up in that range, Ekeler should surpass this total with time to spare.
Take the over.
Travis Kelce Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-150)
Kelce failed to find the end zone only once in the last eight times he suited up – and that was in the Pro Bowl. A two-touchdown game against the same Chargers last December is included in that seven-game streak. Don’t just take him to score Thursday night. Take him to score each week until he doesn’t.
Take Kelce to score.
Mecole Hardman Under 3.5 Receptions (-105)
This could look very bad Friday morning, but time is running out for Hardman to establish himself as a reliable weapon in the Chiefs aerial attack. JuJu Smith-Schuster was Mahomes’ top wide receiver target in their Week 1 win in Arizona, and while Hardman was targeted six times, he only pulled in three of those. Add the aforementioned Kelce, and it’s not a stretch to see Hardman making little to no impact in Arrowhead Thursday.
Take the under.
Justin Herbert Over 283.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Herbert’s passing totals have much more variance than many people likely realize. And this week’s number is a tick over the 279 yards he dropped on the Raiders last week. But while it’s a small sample size, Herbert has reached or exceeded 300 yards in his young career’s first two trips to Kansas City.
Take the Over.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Edwards-Helaire topped this total once in his last six games – the thrilling 42-36 AFC Divisional Round shootout against the Buffalo Bills back in January. Much like Mecole Hardman, the clock is ticking on Edwards-Helaire to be the impact player Andy Reid and company expected him to be when they used a first-round pick on him in 2020. Consider him the opposite of Kelce’s touchdowns – routinely play his under until he stops hitting under.
Take the Under.