Monday Night Football Prop Bets: Patriots vs Bills

Monday Night Football Prop Bets
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NFL Sunday is over, but there is still time to make some prop bets for Monday Night Football. The New England Patriots travel up to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a game that will undoubtedly have a massive impact on the AFC East race. This should be a great game, and there is an opportunity to make some money on various betting platforms. 

Five Best Monday Night Football Prop Bets – Patriots vs Bills

Underdog Fantasy – Rhamondre Stevenson: OVER 44.5 Rush Yards

The New England Patriots are a run-first team, and they’ll probably try to establish the crap out of the ground game. The Buffalo Bills have one of the best overall defenses in the league, but their rushing defense is a bit weaker than their passing defense. With high winds and cold temperatures expected throughout the night, it’s very safe to project a run-heavy attack for New England. 

In terms of actually dividing up the touches, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have had essentially the same workload over the last few weeks. With that in mind, it makes sense to bet the over on whichever running back has the lower prop. In this case, that’s Stevenson with 44.5 rushing yards. 

Underdog Fantasy – Jakobi Meyers: UNDER 43.5 Receiving Yards

Monday night is not looking like a good day for former undrafted free agent Jakobi Meyers. In addition to the previously-discussed weather and gamescript issues, the Buffalo Bills have perhaps the best pass defense in football. Their -0.11 EPA/dropback is second to only the Arizona Cardinals, which means the Patriots will probably have trouble moving the ball through the air on the rare occasions they actually throw the ball. 

Meyers has the highest receiving prop of any Patriot, which is a good reason to fade him in the first place. However, he’s also clearly been outplayed by Kendrick Bourne in recent weeks. If I’m noticing this, then you can bet Bill Belichick has as well. Bourne will probably eat into some of Meyers’ opportunities moving forward, which makes Meyers’ odds of reaching 44 receiving yards even lower. 

Josh Allen: OVER 36.5 Rushing Yards

The New England Patriots have one of the best passing defenses in the league, and the wind will only help New England stop Josh Allen from beating them through the air. It could, however, encourage the mobile quarterback to make plays with his legs. Allen is one of the most dangerous rushers in the league, and New England’s linebackers aren’t exactly the fastest grouping in football. When factoring in Kyle Dugger’s absence, this makes Allen hitting the over on this prop bet all the more probable. 

Pickup – UNDER 45.5 Total Points

Two great defenses playing each other in extreme winds is not a recipe for a high-scoring game. The Bills and Patriots both have the firepower to put up big numbers in perfect conditions, but these will not be perfect conditions. Even if both teams are able to move the ball better than I expect, they’ll probably have to do it via the run. Running the ball effectively leads to longer drives, which means fewer points over the course of the game. 

Pickup – Mac Jones: Higher Completion Percentage

Mac Jones spent his collegiate years in Alabama, which means he doesn’t have that much experience with playing in bad weather. Truthfully, his only real experience in this area came during last week’s win over the Tennessee Titans. While it wasn’t his best day at the office, the quarterback still managed to complete an impressive 71.9% of his passes. 

Jones is a very accurate passer, and his safe style of play naturally lends itself to a higher completion percentage. Allen, meanwhile, is more willing to pass up the easy completions for big plays downfield. For the sake of this bet and this bet alone, that style of play is not what you want in a quarterback. 

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