Through six weeks, things aren’t going so well for my bankroll. There’s still a lot of season to turn it around though. One of my favorite aspects of fantasy football has become playing on DraftKings. Every week is like a new puzzle to figure out. Whether you are more of a cash game player or a tournament player, each presents a unique challenge. Let’s take a look at my favorite Week 7 DraftKings plays.
Week 7 DraftKings Plays, Including Kyler Murray
Week 6 Recap
It’s always good to be completely transparent and demonstrate accountability. That’s what I like to do with everything I do and that goes for fantasy football as well. Whether it’s bold takes or DraftKings recommendations, I always like to keep track of wins and losses. It’s not only good for the readers to know, but also helps me learn from mistakes moving forward.
🚨RECAP THREAD🚨
For full transparency each week I'll recap my suggested #DraftKings plays to see if they hit the 2.5x we generally shoot for each week!#FantasyFootball#Fantasy#FantasyFootballAdvice#NFL#NFLTwitter#MondayMorning@MyFantasyLeague
https://t.co/cDA6Ttd9JE— ✴️Rob Norton✴️ (@norton0723) October 19, 2020
Looking back at Week 6, it was my worst yet. Only 36.7 percent of my recommendations hit the 2.5x value we look for in cash game lineups. This time quarterback was the best group at an 83.3 percent success rate. Meanwhile, the tight end group dipped to last down at a 16.7 percent success rate. For me personally, it was another rough week as I’m on a cold streak. We’ll look to get back on track with the Week 7 DraftKings plays.
- Week 6 – $375 → $83 ($292 LOSS)
- Year Total – $2,007 → $898 ($1,109 LOSS)
Week 7 DraftKings Plays
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray (ARI) – $7,100 v SEA
Fresh off a thrashing of the hapless Dallas Cowboys, Kyler and the Cardinals will welcome Russell Wilson and the undefeated Seattle Seahawks to town. This should be one of the most fun games on the slate. Both teams are high scoring teams with awesome quarterbacks and Arizona is also a very fast-paced team. Kyler currently is the QB2 on the season in fantasy points and hasn’t scored less than 23 points in any game this year. The rushing floor he brings is insane. Murray is leading the NFL in rushing yards (370) and rushing touchdowns (6) among all quarterbacks. This is also a matchup in which he’s going to need to throw and score more than usual to keep up with Russ. I was surprised to see his price wasn’t more expensive but that’s what happens to guys that play on Monday night. This is a perfect matchup and game environment for Murray to put up another 30-burger and is a great play this week if you have the salary.
Kyler Murray’s weekly finishes this year: QB5 > QB5 > QB10 > QB6 > QB5 > QB3
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 20, 2020
Joe Burrow (CIN) – $5,500 v CLE
I don’t understand why Burrow’s price is so low this week. He’s only had one bad game so far in his rookie season and that was against a great Baltimore Ravens defense. Burrow currently leads the NFL in pass attempts so the volume is there. He’s attempted at least 30 passes in every game this year. The last time Burrow played against the Browns he had his best fantasy game of the year with 27.54 points and threw 61 passes. Obviously, we aren’t going to expect 61 pass attempts, but this should be a higher scoring, faster-paced game in which Burrow will have to sling it to stay in the game. He’s hit the 300+ yard bonus in four games so far as well. The cherry on top is that he has the eighth-most rushing attempts among all quarterbacks this year as well. It all sets up for Burrow to return great value at this price point.
Deshaun Watson (HOU) – $6,800 v GB
It’s interesting to me that Watson’s price actually dropped slightly after a 35-point game in his last game and a 29.9 point game the week before. Watson is a great talent at quarterback that can get it done through the air or with his legs. He hasn’t been running quite as much this year but it’s certainly in his repertoire. The firing of Bill O’Brien has almost been like the lifting of a huge weight and Watson and the Texans have played better since. I expect that to continue this week against the Packers. This is a spot where Watson is playing at home, in a dome, and in a good game environment where they should be competitive or trailing. Expect Watson and company to put up numbers this weekend.
Others to Consider: Gardner Minshew (JAX) – $5,900 @ LAC, Kyle Allen (WAS) – $5,200 v DAL, Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) – $5,800 @ NO
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (NO) – $7,900 v CAR
Alvin Kamara in a full PPR scoring format for less than 8k? In this economy? Sign me up regardless of the matchup. He’s only scored less than 20 points once this year and that was 19.9. The floor is extremely high and he also has a lot of touchdown equity on a high scoring Saints team so that gives him a nice ceiling as well. This play is much better if Michael Thomas sits as we can expect him to see an elevated target share. This matchup is also one of the best you can have for a running back against the Panthers. The Saints are also at home and in a dome which is even more reason to jam him in.
Kareem Hunt (CLE) – $6,800 at CIN
The last time the Browns played the Bengals, it turned into a high-scoring shootout. That was also Hunt’s best game of the season and Nick Chubb was active in that one. The Browns ran all over the Bengals in that one. Hunt hasn’t been as good as most people were hoping since Chubb went down but he’s been used as a three-down workhorse in that time, seeing the majority of the snaps and touches in context neutral situations. This is a game where the Browns should be playing from ahead and against a soft run defense. This should be a really nice game for Hunt and makes a great play at his current price.
Kareem Hunt dealt with cramps in the fourth quarter Week 5; entire Browns offense was basically out for last 15 minutes of Week 6.
Browns RB usage post-Chubb in quarters 1-3 during the last two weeks:
Hunt: 70% snaps, 27 carries, 6 targets
Johnson: 27%, 5, 2Next up: Bengals🚀
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 20, 2020
Justin Jackson (LAC) – $4,900 v JAX
If you’re paying down at the position this week, Jackson looks like the best cheap option. As always, we are always looking for a running back to check as many boxes as possible and with Jackson, he looks like he checks most of them. Before the bye week, Jackson handled 15 carries and five receptions (on six targets) on his way to 14.4 PPR points. He was able to gain 94 total yards on those 20 touches and looks like he’s become more of the main guy over teammate Joshua Kelley. This week he’s coming off a bye and gets to face a bad Jacksonville Jaguars defense that is giving up the fifth-most points to running backs. There is some risk involved as the Chargers could very easily lean on Kelley in this one. Down at this price range though and likely to see double-digit touches in a nice matchup, that’s a risk you should be willing to take even if it’s just having him in your GPP player pool.
Mike Davis (CAR) – $6,600 at NO
Davis is still too cheap. I get it, he’s coming off a bit of a down game but still managed 12.5 points. He was still heavily involved and his 92 percent snap count share was the highest of any running back last week. Even still, since he didn’t smash, his price dropped and I’m taking advantage again. The matchup itself isn’t great but it isn’t bad either. It’s one of those that I’m not worried about one way or another. This play is all about the volume. Getting a guy in a good game environment, in a dome, that dominates snap count and sees a ton of work in the passing game for this price is B-E-A-Utiful.
Others to Consider: Aaron Jones (GB) – $7,200 @ HOU, Chris Carson (SEA) – $6,400 @ ARI, Giovani Bernard (CIN) – $4,500 v CLE, Antonio Gibson (WAS) – $5,000 v DAL
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen (LAC) – $6,200 v JAX
Allen has 50 targets in five games so far. That includes the last game when he left the game in the second quarter and only had two targets. Since Justin Herbert took over, he’s locked been locked on to Allen. In his full games, Allen hasn’t seen less than eight targets in a game and that was Week 1 with Tyrod Taylor as the starter. He’s been double-digits in every other game, including a 19 target game in Week 3. This week, the Chargers are coming off a bye week so he had an extra week to rest up. The matchup is also juicy. Allen gets to take on a Jacksonville defense that is near dead last in terms of efficiency against the pass. Allen should see a minimum of eight targets in this one against a bad and banged up secondary making him a great play at this salary.
Terry McLaurin (WAS) – $5,800 v DAL
McLaurin is probably my favorite wide receiver play on the entire slate. We’re talking about a guy that is fifth in the NFL in total targets (58) which is nearly 10 per game. McLaurin has seen at least seven targets in every single game so far. He’s also faced a gauntlet of great cornerbacks so far as he’s had to take on Darius Slay, Patrick Peterson, Denzel Ward, Marcus Peters/Marlon Humphrey, Jalen Ramsey, and James Bradberry. YIKES! Somehow he’s still been able to score double-digit PPR points in every game but one so far. Now he finally gets an amazing matchup and his price is still this low? McLaurin is a stone-cold lock to be in my cash lineups and I’ll probably be overweight relative to the field in GPPs.
Imagine Terry McLaurin with a good QB…
No.5 in targets
No.4 in routes
No.8 in Target Rate
No.2 in Air Yards Share
No.2 in YAC➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
No.68 in Target Accuracy
No.72 in Target Quality
No.76 in Catchable Target Rate— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) October 22, 2020
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) – $8,200 v SEA
If you’re paying up at the position this week, Hopkins is as good as it gets. He’s the cream of the crop or the soup du jour. Last week was the first game in which he had less than 11 PPR points and only the second time he had less than 20 PPR points. His eight targets from last week were also a season-low but Kyler Murray only threw 24 passes as the Cardinals jumped out to a big lead so it was still a massive 33 percent target share. Hopkins is currently third in the NFL with 61 targets and will continue to get fed in this one. The matchup against the Seahawks is also juicy. Seattle is giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers on the year. This should also be a spot where Arizona will likely either be trailing or in a competitive game so they should need to continue to throw all game. Double-digit targets in a great game environment and a great matchup make Nuk an awesome option if you can afford him.
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) – $5.900 v BUF
Speaking of the target volume, nobody sees more targets on a per-game basis than Jamison Crowder. Part of it comes from the fact that the Jets are always losing and throwing and the other part is that they don’t have many other playmakers to throw the ball to. Crowder always offers such a high floor because of his 11.5 targets per game. He’s seen double-digit targets in all four games so far this year. Crowder has scored at least 11 PPR points in every game as well, including at least 20 PPR points in all three out of four games. This matchup doesn’t seem great at first glance, but Buffalo is getting torched by slot wide receivers so far. Lockdown corner Tre’Davious White is generally able to eliminate the top outside threat, so teams look to attack Buffalo via the slot. Crowder should be fed all the looks he can handle in this one.
Others to Consider: Davante Adams (GB) – $7,900 @ HOU, Tyreek Hill (KC) – $6,400 @ DEN, Tyler Lockett (SEA) – $6,600 @ ARI, Tyler Boyd (CIN) – $5,400 v CLE, Diontae Johnson (PIT) – $4,200 @ TEN, Brandin Cooks (HOU) – $5,200 v GB
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) – $6,300 @ DEN
Tight end has been absolutely brutal this year. If you don’t want to mess around with the dumpster options, paying up for Kelce is a safe option. He currently leads all tight ends in targets (53), receptions (37), yards (470), and touchdowns (5) this year. He has nearly 30 more PPR points than the next closest tight end. This guy is truly a difference-maker at a position that lacks difference makers. The matchup isn’t anything special but you can always bank on a healthy target share and double-digit PPR points every time you lock Kelce in your lineup.
YAC leaders by position:
RB: Alvin Kamara – 343
WR: Terry McLaurin – 265
TE: Travis Kelce – 213 pic.twitter.com/7QSgxGS9Bi— PFF (@PFF) October 21, 2020
Hunter Henry (LAC) – $4,500 v JAX
In a year where the tight end position has been so unpredictable, Henry has been a steady contributor. He’s scored double-digit PPR points in every game except one this year and has also seen at least seven targets in every game besides one as well. His production has remained steady with Justin Herbert at quarterback. The matchup is solid as well as they are taking on the Jaguars. Jacksonville is one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the pass. They are also one of the worst defenses in the NFL against the run, however, which is one of the biggest concerns here. If the Chargers are able to grab a lead and lean on the run game, it could limit the volume of the passing game. It’s only a small concern, however, considering the state of the tight end position.
Dalton Schultz (DAL) – $3,900 @ WAS
Schultz has been decent since taking over for Blake Jarwin early in the year. He’s been a bit up and down, but we are talking about the tight end position. Schultz has seen at least five targets in every game except one and has also caught at least four passes in every game besides one. That’s pretty consistent considering the tight end landscape we are working with. This matchup is nothing to worry about either. Washington has been allowing some of the most production to the tight end in the NFL so far. This also projects as the fastest-paced game on the entire slate so extra plays are always nice. The only worry is if the Cowboys can grab an early lead and lean on Zeke but they haven’t shown that ability yet and at this price, it’s a minor concern.
Others to Consider: Hayden Hurst (ATL) – $4,400 v DET, T.J. Hockenson (DET) – $5,000 @ ATL, Jonnu Smith (TEN) – $4,700 v PIT
Defense/Special Teams
In terms of choosing a defense/special teams, it’s the last spot I fill in every week. It’s pretty random but there are a few areas to gain an advantage. I look to target the heavily favorited teams as they usually are playing with a lead. This forces their opponent to throw it more often which can help lead to extra sacks and turnovers and hopefully a touchdown. Another aspect to target is turnover and sack-prone quarterbacks. With that being said, my advice is to fill out the rest of your lineup first and then pick your favorite D/ST out of the remaining money.
My Tentative Cash Game Lineup
- QB – Kyler Murray
- RB – Alvin Kamara
- RB – Giovani Bernard
- WR – Davante Adams
- WR – Diontae Johnson
- WR – Terry McLaurin
- TE – Logan Thomas
- Flex – Mike Davis
- DST – Washington Football Team
Make sure to tune in next week to see the results from my Week 7 DraftKings plays and to see the best picks for Week 8. Best of luck to everyone and let’s all enjoy some football and win some money!
