The NFL released their schedule in May, and win totals have been available for betting across the market for the last two months. Last week we looked at the AFC, now let’s take a look at my top three favorite NFC win totals.
Click here to see my favorite AFC win totals.
Top Three Favorite NFC Win Totals
1) New York Giants Under 6.5 Wins
Las Vegas has set the win total at 6.5 for Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. For the Giants to eclipse that 6.5 win mark they would have to see a three-game improvement from 2019. While Saquon Barkley is the face of the franchise, the success of the team is going to be based on how well second-year quarterback Daniel Jones plays in the upcoming season. Jones had a very inconsistent rookie year has he finished 35th among quarterbacks with at least four starts in yard per attempt (6.6 yds) and 30th in completion rate (61.9%). Not all his starts were bad, he did show signs of great play as he is only the second rookie quarterback to have three games of four or more touchdown passes and also had five 300-yard passing games.
With that being said Jones did benefit from playing a below-average slate of pass defenses in 2019. That will not be the case in 2020. The Giants face the 10th toughest opposing pass defenses and start off the season with four top-10 pass defenses. Not only do the Giants have a tough schedule ahead of them they have a new Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and Defensive Coordinator, and with limited preseason practices there be some bumps along the while trying to learn a new system. Take the under.
2) New Orleans Saints Over 10 Wins
You can make a case the New Orleans Saints should have been back-to-back-back NFC Champions, and even potentially Super Bowl Champions. Three years the Saints have suffered heartbreaking playoff losses and every year after they seem to be on a revenge tour to get Drew Brees one last ring. Well, 2020 is no different. After losing to the Minnesota Viking is in the closing seconds of the Wild-Card game, I believe Sean Payton, Drew Brees, and the rest of the team are on a mission.
We all know that the Saints offense is a well-oiled machine and should be able to carry over their success and 37 ppg from 2019 to the 2020 season. Alvin Kamara underperformed last year and the team expects him to fully healthy and ready to have a bounce-back season. A big factor key for the Saints 2020 run is their defense. In 2018 the Saints ranked 31st in EDSR (early down success rate), last year the Saints made a huge step forward in that department and ranked fourth in 2019. The NFC South still belongs to Drew Brees and the Saints despite Tom Brady signing with Tampa Bay. Saint will win more than 10 games with ease.
3) Dallas Cowboys Over 10 Wins
The Dallas Cowboys are like the ex-girlfriend you keep going back to even though they break your heart over and over again. Every year there are high expectations for the Cowboys and no matter the situation or the guys they bring in, they fail to live up to those expectations. 2020 will be no different for “America’s Team”
Dallas, on paper, has one of the most talented offenses in the league with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and rookie CeeDee Lamb. With added depth to the defensive side of the ball and a new Head Coach, Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys look to finally fulfill those expectations.
Dallas will face the ninth easiest schedule based on 2020 forecasted win totals as well as the 11th easiest opposing pass defenses in 2020. That bodes well for Dak Prescott and the offense.
While the Dallas Cowboys only won eight games last year they were 1-6 in one-score games. One would have to think that they will improve in that category and with the soft schedule, it should be no problem for the Cowboys to add three more wins in 2020.
Honorable Mentions
Green Bay Packers Over 9 Wins
Arizona Cardinals Under 7.5 Wins
