Having a successful fantasy football season is all about nailing your mid- to late-round picks. Just about anyone can figure out that Michael Thomas is going to have a good season, but true fantasy skill involves finding the diamonds in the rough that can win you a league. Jamison Crowder isn’t receiving much national attention, but he is in a decent position for fantasy success. Does he have what it takes to outperform his ADP and win a fantasy league?
Note: All scoring information is given in PPR format.
Fantasy Football: Jamison Crowder 2020 Profile
Jamison Crowder was one of the few good parts of the 2019 New York Jets. Signed as a free agent, the slot receiver ended his year with a respectable 78 receptions for 833 yards and six touchdowns. This made him the WR26 in PPR leagues, although his end of season rankings do not fully describe his season.
Quarterback Sam Darnold missed three games with mono, and backup quarterback Trevor Siemian went down shortly into his first start. Because of this, Crowder had to spend the majority of Weeks 2-4 catching passes from the vastly underwhelming Luke Falk. If you remove those three games from the equation, Crowder’s fantasy points per game jump from 12.4 to 14.0. Even this doesn’t tell the full picture, as it took Darnold a while to return to form after coming back to the field.
Jamison Crowder isn’t typically considered a touchdown threat, but he got a surprising amount of red zone work last year. According to Pro Football Reference, Crowder saw 15 red zone targets last year, good for 20th-best in the league. This is ahead of guys like Kenny Golladay and Mark Andrews, and is particularly impressive considering the underwhelming state of the New York’s offense.
The biggest downside with Crowder’s season was the week-to-week inconsistency. Despite his solid finish, Crowder had seven games where he failed to record double-digit fantasy points. Some of the blame can be placed on the lackluster quarterback situation, but not all of it. From Weeks 11 to 13, Crowder recorded a combined 12.5 fantasy points. At this point in the season, Darnold was back on the field and playing up to his typical level.
In an offseason where continuity matters more than ever, Jamison Crowder is set to receive a massive target share. The Jets lost Robby Anderson and his 96 targets and replaced him with Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims. Perriman is a career journeyman that shouldn’t challenge for Crowder’s targets, while Mims is going to struggle to contribute in the shortened offseason. The only other “new” player of note is tight end Chris Herndon, and he’s a massive unknown at this point in his career.
Jamison Crowder is quietly the odds-on favorite to lead the team in just about every receiving stat. He recorded 122 targets last year with an injured Darnold and should surpass that mark if the young quarterback stays healthy. While Crowder probably won’t hit double-digit touchdowns, he should still be the team leader in red zone targets. Ending the year with 6-8 touchdowns wouldn’t surprise anyone.
Crowder has an ideal projected workload, but he’s still missing some ideal fantasy qualities. For one, Crowder does the vast majority of his work in the short part of the field. It’s no secret that deep targets are more valuable than short crossers, and Crowder doesn’t have the explosiveness of elite efficiency to outperform the expectations of a shallow target. Additionally, the New York Jets will probably have a below-average offense. Shorter drives mean fewer targets and scoring opportunities, which is obviously bad news for fantasy production.
Jamison Crowder Average Draft Position
As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator has Crowder going off the board with the 116th overall pick. This puts him in the same general range as guys like CeeDee Lamb, Mecole Hardman, and Christian Kirk. Interestingly enough, this ranking has him going off the board after a couple of defenses.
Quite frankly, this is highway robbery. Jamison Crowder might not have the highest ceiling, but he possessed a ridiculously safe floor with WR2 upside. Crowder is clearly the top receiver on the depth chart, has an established rapport with the quarterback, and should be the go-to guy throughout the year. Ultimately, he’s the perfect WR3/flex play that is going for pennies on the dollar. Winning fantasy leagues is all about finding late-round value, and Crowder is an absolute steal.
Embed from Getty Images