The 2020 NFL season is one step closer to reality, as the NFL released the New England Patriots schedule on Thursday night. The Patriots won’t have an easy ride in their first season without Tom Brady, so let’s take a look at what the team can expect from the early schedule.
Obviously, this whole thing could be thrown off by a shortened or canceled season, thanks to COVID-19. However, for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that all the games happen in the intended order.
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Takeaways from New England Patriots Schedule Release
Somewhat Favorable Start
The Patriots kick off their season with a fairly manageable five-game stretch against the Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Las Vegas Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos. The Patriots will (justifiably) be underdogs against the Seahawks and Chiefs, but they should fare well against the other three teams.
The Dolphins added a ton of talent in the offseason and could challenge for the division if Tua Tagovailoa can hit the ground running. However, it’s hard to imagine Miami clicking right out of the gate, considering the shortened offseason and the amount of turnover on the roster. Factor in that this game takes place at Foxboro, and the Patriots should start their season on a high note.
The Las Vegas Raiders shouldn’t pose much of a challenge unless Marcus Mariota already won the starting job and is playing like his 2016 self. The Denver Broncos have talent all across the roster but a giant question mark in quarterback Drew Lock. If Lock turns into a top-15 quarterback, this one could go down to the wire. However, based on 2019’s film that probably won’t happen.
Middle Gauntlet
New England’s season will ultimately be defined by what happens in the middle of the season. Starting in Week 7, the Patriots have to face off against the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, and Arizona Cardinals. While the Jets are Cardinals are both winnable matchups, there is no “easy” game in this stretch, and the Patriots will be hard-pressed to beat most of these units.
The San Francisco 49ers have a fantastic defense and arguably the best offensive mind in football in Kyle Shanahan. Chalk this one up as a loss. Buffalo almost beat the Patriots in both of their matchups last year, and the team should be better this year with the addition of Stefon Diggs, and the Baltimore Ravens are arguably the most talented team in football. Bill O’Brien is doing everything possible to ruin the Texans as a franchise, but this team will be dangerous as long as Deshaun Watson is under center. If the Patriots can win two or three of these games, then they still have a shot at the playoffs.
The Final Stretch
After that brutal stretch, the Patriots close out the season with games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets. As someone who doesn’t believe in Justin Herbert, the Patriots should be able to win against the Chargers. That said, if Herbert turns out to be the real deal, this one could go either way.
The Los Angeles Rams went 9-7 last year despite losing the vast majority of their coaching staff to other teams. Given a full offseason of coaching continuity combined with some positive regression from Jared Goff should bring this team back to the forefront of NFL contention. It’s hard to see the Patriots pulling out a win here.
The Miami Dolphins, as previously mentioned, have plenty of talent and should figure out how to use it by this point in the season. Considering this game takes place in Miami, this one is probably a loss as well. The Bills are good, but home field advantage gives the Patriots a Week 16 win. Ditto for the Jets, as New England closes out the season on a high note.
Ultimately, this is the most vulnerable Patriots team we’ve seen in quite some time. The Patriots have made it by without Brady in the past, but this schedule isn’t going to make it easy. In 2008, Matt Cassel’s Patriots posted an 11-5 record against what was literally the easiest schedule in NFL history at the time. The 2020 Patriots face a far more difficult task and will probably finish with a 6-10 record.
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