When the Buffalo Bills took Zack Moss in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, some people were left scratching their heads. After all, the team also took a running back in the third round of last year’s draft, Devin Singletary. However, with Frank Gore out of the picture, Moss should be able to slide right into the lineup and make an immediate impact.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Zack Moss in 2020
Better Fit Than Initially Seems
Singletary had relatively respectable stats Buffalo last year. He rushed 151 times for 775 yards and two touchdowns. Singletary also added 29 receptions for 194 yards and two more touchdowns. This was despite Singletary playing alongside Gore for most of the year.
But that is also the reason why this makes more sense than initially meets the eye. Singletary never completely took the starting job away from Gore. This was despite Gore playing in his 15th NFL season. Gore was also averaging a paltry 3.6 yards-per-carry on the season. In fact, Gore had 15 more carries than Singletary, but almost 200 fewer yards. So why did he never run away with the lead back job?
It seems the Bills aren’t sold on Singletary as their lead runner, who is a smaller back. He is only five-foot-seven and just over 200 pounds. He’s not exactly a hammer that a team is going to rely on to punch in touchdowns or get that yard on third and short. That is why they kept Gore in on those situations. But Moss has that build. Moss is five-foot-nine and 223 pounds. He is known for his violent running style and going through guys.
There is one last telling stat for Singletary. He faced an NFL low 5.3 percent snaps against stacked boxes. This doesn’t make much sense, since the Bills aren’t exactly feared for burning others in their passing game. But when Gore was in the game the opposite was seen. Gore faced stacked boxes on 37.35 percent of his snaps, third-most in the league. Basically, Singletary benefited from playing more often on downs that weren’t obvious run situations. (Though, to his credit, Singletary’s versatility probably helps him in this aspect.)
Looking to 2020
Moss wasn’t the only new weapon that the Bills will go into the 2020 season with. The team traded their first-round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for disgruntled wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs will now pair with John Brown to create a formidable wide receiver corps. However, Buffalo still looks to be a run-first team, which should be even easier with opposing defenses now having to worry about Diggs.
Last year, the team ran the ball 465 times, sixth-most in the league. Gore and Singletary accounted for about three-quarters of those attempts, but quarterback Josh Allen made up most of the rest, with 109 attempts. That is a number that needs to go down if the Bills want to keep their franchise quarterback healthy. Expect a good amount of those to be funneled out, along with his nine rushing touchdowns. Being the bigger back, Moss has a good shot to claim the bulk of the goal line carries, increasing his fantasy football ceiling.
Because Moss shares the backfield with another young and talented back, he is a risky pick and has a lower floor than other backs that were drafted, like Claire Edwards-Helaire. However, both Singletary and Moss should be serviceable RB2s in re-draft formats. Singletary ended the season as RB31 but missed four games with an injury. He still averaged a respectable 11.1 points-per-game in half-point PPR leagues. Moss has a chance to go undrafted in many formats. But, he is worth a late-round flyer, and should definitely be put on watch lists for all fantasy team owners.