10 weeks on NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 11 spreads and over/unders. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 11 Spreads, Over/Under, Game Picks, and Betting Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
The Cleveland Browns may have won in Week 10, but that doesn’t mean they’re a good team. Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham are not on the same page, and the offense simply isn’t playing up to their talent. The defense isn’t anything to write home about and can be exploited in the right matchup. Mason Rudolph is no superstar, but he’s good enough to lead this team to a 5-4 record through 10 weeks. The Steelers should win this one comfortably.
Pick: Steelers win, cover spread
Over/Under: 41 [Pick: Under]
New York Jets at Washington Redskins (EVEN)
Two of the worst three or four teams in the league face off in what’s going to be an ugly affair. The New York Jets have struggled throughout the season but finally seemed to gain some momentum against the New York Giants. Sam Darnold finally looked comfortable under center, and he should carry that positive play into Week 11. The Washington Redskins are atrocious in all three phases of the game, Dwayne Haskins doesn’t look ready for the spotlight, and Bill Callahan’s stubborn style of play is conductive to losing.
Pick: Jets win
Over/Under: 37.5 [Pick: Under]
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
The Jacksonville Jaguars finally get their starting quarterback back on the field, but the same might not be true for the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is reportedly week-to-week and might not suit up in Week 11. If he doesn’t, there isn’t much reason to believe in Brian Hoyer. The longtime NFL backup was terrible in his spot start, completing just 18 of 39 passes for 204 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions against an atrocious Miami Dolphins team. Even if Brissett can play, he won’t be at full strength. As long as Bad Nick Foles doesn’t show up, the Jaguars should be in good shape for this one.
Pick: Jaguars win
Over/Under: 44 [Pick: Over]
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins are riding a surprising two-game winning streak and now get to host an equally surprising 6-3 Buffalo Bills team. The Bills are probably one of the worst 6-3 teams in recent memory, but they still have the defense to stop Ryan Fitzpatrick and company. Josh Allen isn’t the best quarterback in the league, but he can do enough to win this matchup. The last time these two teams met, the Bills won by 10 thanks to a last-second onside kick returned for a touchdown. The Bills should win, but this should be a surprisingly close affair.
Pick: Bills win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 39 [Pick: Under]
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (Not Available)
Vegas has not released odds on this game with the status of Matthew Stafford in doubt.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)
Lamar Jackson can do no wrong of late, and the Baltimore defense is starting to get healthier and play better. Jackson is playing like an MVP candidate and might even end up the frontrunner if Russell Wilson struggles on Monday Night Football. However, he’s facing off against another great quarterback in Deshaun Watson. The Texans essentially mortgaged the future to go all-in on 2019, and that strategy appears to be working in the short term. This game is going to do down to the wire and could easily go either way. Considering how evenly these teams match up, we’ll give the advantage to the home team.
Pick: Ravens win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 49 [Pick: Over]
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-6)
The Atlanta Falcons pulled off a major upset victory on Sunday, proving that anything can happen on any given Sunday. After looking like one of the worst defenses in football for the better part of the season, the Falcons locked down Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints offense. That probably won’t happen again, as Atlanta will probably regress to the mean against the Carolina Panthers. Kyle Allen isn’t a superstar by any means, but he’s proving to be a solid starter. He should be able to tear apart this defense, while Carolina should be able to slow the Falcons just enough to ensure a victory.
Pick: Panthers win, cover spread
Over/Under: 51 [Pick: Under]
New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chances are, last week’s offensive breakdown was a one-week fluke. Drew Brees is still a great quarterback, Sean Payton is still a great offensive mind, and Michael Thomas is still an elite wide receiver. The Buccaneers can’t stop anything through the air, and Jameis Winston isn’t good enough to keep up with Brees and company in a shootout. The Saints should win this one by a comfortable margin.
Pick: Saints win, cover spread
Over/Under: 51.5 [Pick: Over]
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)
Brandon Allen played well in his Week 9 NFL debut, but that says more about the Cleveland Browns than it does Allen himself. The fact of the matter is that Allen is a former sixth-round pick who bounced around the league before the Broncos gave him a chance. The Minnesota Vikings defense is considerably better than the Browns, and they should be able to capitalize on Allen’s inexperience and relative lack of arm strength. On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins has been on fire since September and should take advantage of an average Broncos secondary.
Pick: Vikings win, cover spread
Over/Under: 38.5 [Pick: Under]
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5)
The 49ers are going to win this one, but a 13.5-point spread just seems disrespectful. Kyler Murray is steadily improving on a weekly basis, and Kliff Kingsbury is adjusting to the NFL game. This team isn’t ready to compete with a juggernaut like the 49ers, but they have the pieces to keep it relatively close. Unfortunately, the defense is still a mess and Jimmy Garoppolo should be able to go up and down the field with minimal resistance.
Pick: 49ers win, don’t cover spread
Over/Under: 45.5 [Pick: Over]
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The New England Patriots suffered a rare three-score loss in Week 9, and now have two weeks to prepare for an underachieving Philadelphia Eagles roster. Hell hath no fury like a pissed off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and the additional week off should have allowed the Patriots to do enough self-scouting to improve their relatively lackluster offense. God help the Eagles.
Pick: Patriots win, cover spread
Over/Under: 46 [Pick: Over]
Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-10.5)
If Ryan Finley is the answer under center, then you’re asking the wrong question. The fourth-round rookie looked like a fourth-round rookie in his NFL debut, and his supporting cast didn’t make anything better. The Bengals have the worst roster in the league and are on a collision course with the first overall pick. The Raiders, meanwhile, are on the brink of playoff contention and will give this game everything they have. Normally a spread this large would have me thinking twice, but I’m honestly surprised that the spread is this low.
Pick: Raiders win, cover spread
Over/Under: 48.5 [Pick: Under]
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Two of the NFL’s most disappointing teams face off in front of a national audience. Both Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubisky took major steps back in 2019 as both teams fight for a spot in the playoff picture. Chicago’s defense has regressed from elite to just good, while the Rams defense stayed relatively the same. Even with a regressing Goff, the Rams can still move the ball in spurts. The same cannot be said for the Bears, who have arguably the worst offense in football.
Pick: Rams win, cover spread
Over/Under: 42 [Pick: Under]
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Kansas City Chiefs finally have Patrick Mahomes back on the field, but Mahomes can only do so much with this sieve of a defense. The Chiefs allowed Derrick Henry to run wild and Ryan Tannehill to captain the game-winning drive despite an elite performance by Mahomes. Melvin Gordon should have a field day in this one, but winning via the ground attack simply isn’t easy in today’s NFL. Philip Rivers is going to have to go blow-for-blow with Mahomes, and the Chargers’ longtime quarterback simply hasn’t looked like himself for most of the season. The Chiefs should bounce back with a solid victory over their division foes.
Pick: Chiefs win, cover spread
Over/Under: 49.5 [Pick: Over]
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