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Week 8 DFS Core Plays: Julian Edelman, Deshaun Watson, More

Julian Edelman

Julian Edelman is in a good position to have a big week. He tops the list of DFS core plays for Week 8. Find out who else to load up on in DFS this week.

Play Julian Edelman: Week 8 DFS Core Plays

Using Vegas odds from vegasinsider.com, matchup data from Mike Clay’s WR/CB matchup sheet, stats from Pro Football Reference, ownership projections from across the industry, and a decade of experience, I’m able to provide you with insightful plays for DFS each week. Here are the top options for Week 8.

[Prices and data via Draft Kings]

Week 8 DFS Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson $7100

With Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, both unavailable on this slate, Watson is the top option available. He can get it done on the ground or through the air giving him a safe floor and a sky-high ceiling. The Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans game has the second-highest O/U (51.5) on the slate, and the Texans have the second-highest implied team total (29 points). Texans-Raiders is a game to exploit with some game stacks in GPPs, but Watson can also be played alone in cash.

Tom Brady $6600

Brady has been steady all season despite the revolving door at the outside receiver position and lack of a productive run game. This week, the Patriots will host the Cleveland Browns. The Pats are 13-point favorites, which usually would indicate a run-heavy game script. However, as I mentioned, the Pats run game is struggling to gain traction this year. They need Brady to throw them to victory. Another thing about the Patriots and Brady, even when they get a big lead, rarely do they take their foot off the gas pedal. The players I like most as stacking partners for Brady are the guys who catch passes over the middle of the field where Brady wants to operate the most.

Ryan Tannehill $5100

The Tennessee Titans have a good core group of players. If Tannehill can keep the offense on schedule and distribute the ball effectively like he did this past weekend, he will be able to surpass value and boost the value of the players around him. This week, Tannehill gets an exploitable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who allow the third-most DK points to quarterbacks. All of the Titans pass-catchers are dirt cheap, creating an opportunity for low-cost and low-owned stacks. Stacks that will allow you to load up the rest of your lineup.

Week 8 DFS Running Backs

Chris Carson $7000

Carson has been a true bell-cow running back for the Seattle Seahawks this season. This week, Seattle will travel East to play the Atlanta Falcons. The Seahawks–Falcons game has the highest O/U (53.5), and Seattle is favored by 3.5. Atlanta ranks 20th against the run, allowing 113.7 rushing yards per game. Carson has averaged more than 27 touches per game in his last four. With the Seahawks likely to favor the run on the road against the Falcons weak run defense, expect another heavy dose of Carson again this weekend.

Austin Ekeler $5900

Melvin Gordon has looked awful since returning from his holdout. He is averaging 2.2 yards per carry and 3.8 yards per catch. Meanwhile, Ekeler continues to crush every chance he gets. If the Los Angeles Chargers want to win games, they need to feature more of Ekeler and less of Gordon. Ekeler’s price dropping to only 5.9k makes him a good play, whether he is featured or not Sunday. The Chargers will need Ekeler at his best Sunday to help offset the furious pass-rush from the Chicago Bears defense with a lot of quick short-area passes.

Latavius Murray $5800

Murray is only a viable play if Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with an ankle injury, is out or expected to be limited this week. However, if Murray gets the nod again at running back this week, he will face the 25th ranked defense versus the run- the Cardinals have allowed 129.1 rushing yards per game. Therefore, Murray would once again be a good option for DFS. If he is getting the lions share of the Saints running back touches, Murray offers the kind of GPP upside we are looking for, and the touch volume we want for cash game lineups.

Sony Michel $5200

Michel has upside at his 5.2k price. The Patriots are big favorites again this week, in their matchup with the Browns. Michel is a candidate for 15-20 touches and can run a few short touchdowns in any given week. The fact that the Pats are 13-point favorites makes it even more likely we see a big dose of Michel in the game.

DeAndre Washington $3100

If Josh Jacobs, who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, can’t play, Washington is next in line to handle the majority share of the Raiders running back workload. At 3.1k, Washington is almost a free-square. Getting Washington into our lineups opens up a ton of salary to spend on some high-end running backs and wide receivers.

Week 8 DFS wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins $8100

Will Fuller is out of the lineup this week, so Hopkins should be the most targeted receiver on the Texans offense. Hopkins was targeted 12 times in each of the last two games. If he gets close to that target volume again this week, he should smash. The Raiders have allowed the second-most DK points to wide receivers on the season. Therefore, both Hopkins and Kenny Stills are worth playing in some lineups.

Micheal Thomas $8000

Whether it is Drew Brees or Teddy Bridgewater playing quarterback, Thomas is going to be targeted heavily. He has seen double-digit targets in five of his seven games played this season. This week, Thomas and the Saints are matched up with the fast-paces Arizona Cardinals. It’s feasible to think, with a few extra snaps, Thomas could see a couple more targets. Even though the Cardinals have Patrick Peterson back, it’s unlikely he will follow Thomas all game. Sean Peyton will move Thomas around to exploit more advantageous matchups.

Chris Godwin $7100

Godwin has been a revelation this year. He’s averaging 26.2 DK points per game and has scored 28 DK points or more in 4 out of six games. Godwin, who aligns mostly in the slot, has seen a 23% team target share and averages an outstanding .66 fantasy points per pass route. The Tampa Bay offense hasn’t been pretty- mostly because of Jameis Winston blunders. However, they live and die by the pass, and most of the targets are funneled to two receivers, which provides us a great source of fantasy points. Godwin should see another healthy target share this week and has the talent to overcome what appears to be a tough matchup with the Titans. Both he and Mike Evans are worth playing in some Week 8 DFS lineups.

Julian Edelman $6900

Julian Edelman is a cash game staple. He is typically priced sub-7k, has a consistent target share, and a high weekly floor. However, it’s not often we can look to Julian Edelman for GPP lineups. I think this week could be one of those times. Julian Edelman and Brady will pick on Brown’s slot corner T.J. Carrie, this week. Carrie has allowed .46 fantasy points per pass route- according to Mike Clays WR/CB matchup sheet. Julian Edelman has seen a 25% target share and averages .40 fantasy points per pass route. With Josh Gordon now on IR, and Mohamed Sanu playing his first game with the Pats, it would be surprising if a receiver other than Julian Edelman led the team in fantasy production. You can play Julian Edelman in cash, or stack him with Brady in GPP lineups to capitalize on their correlating production.

Larry Fitzgerald $5400

Fitzgerald at only 5.4k seems too cheap. He should be targeted a bunch on Sunday while going up against a banged-up Saints secondary that ranks 25th in DK points allowed to receivers. The Saints slot corners, Patrick Robinson and P.J. Williams, are both questionable for the game, and outside corner, Eli Apple is also a question mark as of writing this article on Wednesday night. Fitz caught at least five passes in each of the Cardinal’s first six games. However, he was scripted out of last week’s contest while teammate Chase Edmonds ran wild on the New York Giants. This week’s game should be much more competitive. Therefore, Kyler Murray will need to lean on Fitz more in this one. Fitgerald is a bounce-back candidate this week, in a plus matchup with a discounted price (down $700 from last week).

Week 8 DFS Tight Ends

Evan Engram $5300

Engram’s pricetag has come back to Earth this week- down $1200 from last week- after he laid an egg in a matchup with the Cardinals who rank dead last in DK points allowed to tight ends. Luckily, for Engram, he gets another tight end-friendly matchup this week with the Detroit Lions, who rank 24th in DK points allowed to the tight end position. Furthermore, the Lions just traded away safety and defensive captain Quandre Diggs, increasing the quality of the matchup for Engram. I like the idea of building a couple of game-stacks using the Lions quarterback and top-two receivers (the Giants have allowed some big games to opposing QB’s and WR’s) and running it back with Engram in the TE slot. You can add Saquon Barkley in there too if you want to take it a step further. However, you will need to go cheap elsewhere if you do.

Hunter Henry $4900

Since his return two weeks ago, Henry has amassed 14 catches, 197 yards, and two touchdowns. He draws a tough test this week with the Bears, but his price reflects the matchup. While the Bears have a great defense, they also rank 25th in DK points allowed to tight ends. The way to beat the furious pass-rush of the Bears defense is to get the ball out quick. Tight end has been a tough position to nail down each week, but Henry has been rolling. He has the price and matchup to be a good DFS play for a third week in a row.

Jonnu Smith $2800

Delanie Walker exited last Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and was unable to practice on Wednesday and Thursday. If Walker is unable to play this week against Tampa Bay, Smith at only 2.8k would be an excellent low-cost option for DFS. The Bucs have allowed the second-most DK points to tight ends this season. Smith has some big-play ability. If he gets the full complement of tight end snaps for Tennessee this week, he could easily exceed value. If you really want to be contrarian, stack him with Tannehill and load-up the rest of your lineup, or play him in a game-stack with some Bucs for some salary relief.

Week 8 DFS Defense

New England Patriots $4300

The Patriots have been one of the best defenses in recent memory. They are averaging an absurd 21.3 DK points per game. This week, the Pats host the Browns who have had shaky offensive line and quarterback play all season. If you are playing cash, I see no reason to look anywhere else for your defense. The Pats defense averages over 5x return per game this season- 5.8x to be more exact.

Carolina Panthers $2400

The Panthers are one of the few defenses that could provide DFS returns to rival the Patriots this Sunday. Carolina’s defense has been outstanding this season, scoring double-digit DK points in four straight games. Jimmy Garoppolo and company will have their hands full with this unit. The Panthers have 27 sacks and nine interceptions on the season. With all the talk lately about the 49ers defense and how great they are, I expect the Panthers D to be highly motivated to show everyone how good they are. If you are looking for a cheap defense with high upside, look no further than the Panthers D.

 

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