Three weeks of NFL action are in the books, and Vegas just released their NFL Week 4 spreads. Let’s take a dive into each matchup, break down the games, and decide which side to bet on.
NFL Week 4 Spreads, Game Picks, Betting Lines
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles
Aaron Rodgers still doesn’t look like his old self, but he doesn’t need to be a superhero with this impressive defense by his side. Jaire Alexander has taken a huge step, and just about every offseason addition has worked out through this point in the season. Through three games, the Packers defense is allowing just 11.7 points per game. That number might go up against the Eagles, but there’s no denying that this defense has been fantastic.
The Philadelphia Eagles, meanwhile, are one of the most injured teams in the league. A Thursday Night game gives Philadelphia less time to recover and get healthy, and they won’t be anywhere close to full strength in Week 4. Carson Wentz can’t do it alone, and the overmatched secondary won’t stand much of a chance against Davante Adams and a steadily improving Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Pick: Packer win, beat spread
Houston Texans (-4) at Carolina Panthers
Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are great, but the rest of the Houston Texans team leaves a lot to be desired. The defense doesn’t have any playmakers outside of J.J. Watt and Laremy Tunsil isn’t enough to fix a terrible offensive line. The biggest reason for this four-point spread is likely due to Kyle Allen. Allen had a fantastic game in Week 3, but Vegas appears to believe it was a one-game fluke.
While Allen won’t throw four touchdowns every week, he’s still going to be a good quarterback. Allen performed well in the 2018 season finale and the preseason, so it’s not like last week’s actions came out of nowhere. Kyle Allen is good, and he has what it takes to topple this defense.
Pick: Panthers win, beat spread
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs Cleveland Browns
Lamar Jackson came back to Earth against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he’s still had a solid game and almost rallied his team to an unexpected victory. Even if he can’t recapture his elite play from the first two weeks of the season, he’s good enough to lead his team to a comfortable victory in Week 4.
The Baltimore Ravens have the talent necessary to take care of the Browns on both sides of the ball. Baker Mayfield doesn’t look right in this offense and clearly doesn’t trust his offensive line. The defense isn’t playing anywhere close to its’ potential, and they probably won’t find their form against a good Ravens defense. Cleveland’s secondary is banged up and is going to have a tough time stopping Marquise Brown and Baltimore’s aerial attack.
Pick: Ravens win, beat spread
New York Giants (-3) vs Washington Redskins
Daniel Jones had one hell of a debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, building on a strong preseason to lead an 18-point comeback win. Even with Saquon Barkley sidelined, this offense looks better than it has in quite some time. Jones impressed during the preseason and should be able to move the ball against this subpar unit.
Case Keenum, meanwhile, has been one of the luckiest quarterbacks in the league. According to Pro Football Focus, Keenum has the largest split in actual versus expected turnovers. This offense isn’t as good as it’s looked through the first two weeks of the season and is due for some regression. The Giants defense is atrocious, but they should be able to slow down Washington’s subpar passing attack.
Pick: Giants win, beat spread
Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Chargers (-17)
Let’s not waste too much time on this one: the Miami Dolphins are atrocious and no spread is too big for this team.
Pick: Chargers win, beat spread
Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs Oakland Raiders
Losing Andrew Luck to retirement made a lot of people forget that this is one of the most complete rosters in the league. Obviously, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, but the former third-round pick is proving that he’s a starting-caliber quarterback. Head coach Frank Reich is one of the NFL’s best offensive minds and Brissett is getting more and more comfortable with each and every week.
The Oakland Raiders, meanwhile, are not making a second-year leap under Jon Gruden. Derek Carr can’t find his 2016 form, Tyrell Williams isn’t a true WR1, and the defense still allows yards and points by the wayside. Outside of Darren Waller, this team doesn’t have many weapons on either side of the ball.
Pick: Colts win, beat spread
Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
The Lions are having a solid season through three weeks, but they’re not capable of keeping up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Even without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has overcome regression and proved that he can sustain his 2018 production. Only the truly elite teams stand a chance of going blow-for-blow with Mahomes, and the Lions aren’t elite.
Pick: Chiefs win, beat spread
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots (-7)
The Buffalo Bills enter Week 4 with a surprising 3-0 record and are looking to upset their longtime division rivals. The 2019 New England Patriots haven’t faced off against the strongest opponents, but it looks like they’re playing a different game than their competition. The defense has yet to allow a touchdown and Tom Brady is playing better at age 42 than he did at age 41. If this team can stay relatively healthy, this might just be New England’s best roster in years.
That said, the Patriots aren’t healthy. Julian Edelman suffered a rib injury in Week 3 and might not play against Buffalo. Even if he does suit up, he won’t be at full strength. Edelman is the key to New England’s passing attack, and Buffalo’s defense is no joke. The Bills will keep it close, but they’re not quite ready to take down the Patriots.
Pick: Patriots win, don’t cover spread
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) vs Tennessee Titans
Matt Ryan hasn’t looked right all year and Atlanta’s defense isn’t playing up to their potential. That said, Ryan had his best game in Week 3 and it doesn’t take the 1985 Bears to stop the Tennessee Titans. Marcus Mariota is playing like a bottom-10 quarterback and doesn’t look capable of playing up to his draft stock. Trying to run an offense through a one-dimensional back like Derrick Henry in today’s NFL is a strange decision, and the defense isn’t good enough to make up for the offensive ineptitude.
Pick: Falcons win, beat spread
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Los Angeles Rams are considerably better than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it’s hard to take the points on a spread this large. The Rams offense hasn’t looked right in quite some time, even with Cooper Kupp playing like he never tore his ACL. The league has figured out how to slow down Sean McVay’s offense, although the NFL isn’t quite capable of stopping it yet. Jameis Winston isn’t a good quarterback, but he’s capable of putting up points and racking up yards. A garbage-time score could easily ruin the spread for everyone.
Pick: Rams win, don’t beat spread
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks (-4)
The Seattle Seahawks are wasting Russell Wilson. Instead of running their offense through one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Seattle runs the ball at a ridiculous rate and tries to use Chris Carson like Marshawn Lynch. The Cardinals aren’t a great team by any means, but Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury have made the team considerably better than 2018’s unit. Even if you think the talent disparity is too large in this matchup, Seattle’s style of play naturally lends itself to low-scoring affairs and close games.
Pick: Cardinals win, beat spread
Chicago Bears (-2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
This one is going to be hard to watch. The Chicago Bears have a championship-caliber roster but have one of the worst quarterbacks in the league captaining the ship. Head coach Matt Nagy clearly doesn’t trust his quarterback, and with good reason. That said, the Minnesota Vikings have adopted a run-first philosophy, and Kirk Cousins is worse off for it. Facing off against this defense won’t be easy, and the Bears should be able to pull off a narrow victory.
Pick: Bears win, beat spread
Denver Broncos (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
I don’t know how Vegas came up with this one. The Denver Broncos are one of the worst all-around teams in the league. Joe Flacco is playing at a 2018 Case Keenum level, the running game can’t get going, and the defense isn’t playing up to the sum of its’ parts. The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, still have a top defense and Gardner Minshew looks better and better with every passing week. This is a no-brainer.
Pick: Jaguars win, beat spread
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys (-3)
The Saints may have beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, but nothing about that victory was sustainable. The Saints had a punt return touchdown, a short-yardage drive from a fumble, and a touchdown drive extended by a defensive penalty. Overall, Teddy Bridgewater still looked uncomfortable and didn’t do much to impress. The Cowboys are considerably better than the Saints sans Drew Brees and should cruise to victory.
Pick: Cowboys win, beat spread
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) vs Cincinnati Bengals
Does Vegas know Ben Roethlisberger isn’t playing in this one? Mason Rudolph did not look good in his first career start, outside of one or two throws. The defense, offensive line, and wide receivers are fine, but they can’t carry the inexperienced Rudolph. The Bengals, meanwhile, should be able to take advantage of Rudolph’s inexperience and pull off the upset. Even if they can’t win, they should keep it close.
Pick: Bengals win, cover spread
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