The Detroit Lions made a relatively impactful move this week, releasing C.J. Anderson and promoting Ty Johnson to be the primary backup to Kerryon Johnson. Paul Perkins is also in town, but it’s hard to imagine him playing a large part in the offense. Kerryon had one of the biggest hype trains entering the season, but he’s spent the first two weeks splitting carries with Anderson. However, now that Anderson’s out of the picture, let’s break down how the Detroit Lions are going to use their running backs and how that affects your fantasy football team.
Fantasy Football: How Ty Johnson Affects Kerryon Johnson
Who Is Ty Johnson?
Let’s start off by breaking down Ty Johnson and analyzing his strengths and weaknesses as a player. Johnson entered the NFL as an unheralded prospect but immediately stood out in the preseason. He carried that success into the regular season, albeit in a small sample. So far, Johnson has recorded 36 yards on six carries for a healthy six yards per attempt. While he only has two targets, Johnson has the raw skills required to be an adequate option out of the backfield.
Ty Johnson runs with great burst and speed, possessing big-play potential every time he touches the ball. While he obviously doesn’t have much experience, the coaching staff wouldn’t have released C.J. Anderson if they weren’t comfortable with Johnson’s talents. Paul Perkins is one of the most underwhelming running backs in the league, so Johnson should be atop Perkins on the depth chart.
Johnson might be next in line for snaps, but don’t expect Detroit to utilize Johnson the same way they used Anderson. As everyone knows, C.J. Anderson is a big, bruising running back who thrives between the tackles. Essentially, Detroit brought him in hoping he could be a more effective version of LeGarrette Blount. That obviously didn’t work out, and Johnson doesn’t have the build required to play a similar role. Johnson’s going to see some time as a change of pace back, but he’s not the type of player who should threaten for short-yardage and goal-line snaps.
Projecting Kerryon Johnson Going Forward
Of course, Anderson’s release has an impact on Kerryon Johnson. Through the first two games of the season, Anderson recorded 30% of Detroit’s carries and 25% of the snaps. Ty Johnson can’t singlehandedly take all those snaps, so Kerryon Johnson should see more opportunities. While this may imply that Johnson is about to become a fantasy star, a deeper look at the numbers paints an ugly picture. According to Pro Football Reference, nine of Anderson’s 16 carries came on first down, and only two came in the red zone. Johnson won’t see an increase in red-zone work, simply because that’s not how Detroit used Anderson.
Kerryon should see a slight increase in early-down work, but he’s not going to see a Christian McCaffrey type of workload. The second-year running back battled injuries in college and missed six games during his rookie season. The Lions are clearly hesitant about giving him a full workload, simply because they don’t believe his body can handle the punishment. Whether you agree with Detroit’s assessment or not, the fact of the matter is Kerryon Johnson will not play a true three-down role in Detroit. If anything, Paul Perkins could see 3-5 early-down carries per game.
Through the first two games of the season, Johnson averaged 14 rushing attempts and 2.5 targets per game. While these numbers look solid on the surface, it’s worth noting that Detroit went to overtime in Week 1. This extra quarter of play artificially boosted Johnson’s volume stats, meaning that some regression was coming anyway. Moving forward, look for Johnson to average roughly 15 carries per game with two or three targets per week. Ty Johnson, meanwhile, should see five or six carries per game and could be incorporated into the passing attack. If you’re the Kerryon Johnson owner, this could be a perfect time to sell high and bring home a star player in exchange.
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