The Houston Texans made waves on Thursday, sending over a conditional third-round pick in exchange for running back Duke Johnson. Houston had a need at running back after the D’Onta Foreman experiment came to a rough end. Is Johnson going to play second fiddle to Lamar Miller, or will the running back finally get his shot at a feature role?
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Fantasy Football Outlook: Duke Johnson
Duke Johnson’s biggest asset is his pass-catching prowess. Throughout the course of his four-year career, the former Cleveland Brown has recorded 235 receptions on 303 targets for 2,170 yards and eight touchdowns. According to Sharp Football Stats, Johnson had a 103 passer rating and a 47% success rate when targeted, which are both great outputs for a running back.
That said, he’s more than just a receiving threat. Since entering the league, Johnson has recorded 299 rushing attempts for 1,286 yards, five touchdowns, and 4.3 yards-per-carry. This is solid production in its own right, but the numbers get better when you take away his rookie year. Since 2016, Johnson averages 4.7 yards-per-carry in 195 rushing attempts.
Basically, Duke Johnson has flashed the ability to be one of the most explosive running backs in the league. According to Warren Sharp, Johnson ranks second in yards-per-play (5.8), third in explosive play rate, and seventh in success rate (52%) among running backs on early-down targets. When utilized effectively, Johnson is one of the most efficient backs in football.
The biggest question remaining is how the Texans plan to use him. Johnson has never seen a full workload, as he’s only started in 10 of his 64 games. According to Pro Football Reference, Johnson has never played in more than 53.0% of the offensive snaps in any one season. If he sees a bigger workload, his efficiency is probably going to go down. That said, Johnson could easily counteract any drop in efficiency by an increase in touches and have his best fantasy season yet.
How Will the Texans Use Johnson?
The Houston Texans gave up a lot to grab Duke Johnson. According to Ian Rapoport, Houston gave up a fourth-round pick which could turn into a third-round pick if Johnson plays in 10 or more games. The running back position is getting devalued, so giving up this type of draft capital shows that the Texans truly believe Johnson is a true starting-caliber back. Chances are, Houston’s going to give Johnson the chance to be an every-down starter.
Johnson has the best opportunity of his career, but there are pros and cons to being featured in Houston’s offense. On the bright side, he’s in one of the better offenses in the league led by a true franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson. Houston’s offense should be capable of sustaining drives, which means more carries and a higher workload.
However, Houston’s offensive line is not friendly to running backs. Last year, the unit ranked 27th in run-blocking efficiency, per Football Outsiders. The Texans added two early-round offensive linemen in Tytus Howard and Max Scharping during the 2019 NFL Draft, but it’s risky to rely on rookies as an immediate fix.
From a rushing standpoint, a running back is only as good as their offensive line. Johson’s facing tough odds to succeed, although the presumed added workload will help his bottom line. Truthfully, he’ll probably only be a marginal step up from Lamar Miller as a runner. Fortunately, he’s also one of the best in the passing game.
Duke Johnson In the Passing Game
Dual-threat running backs are the most valuable commodity in fantasy football, and Duke Johnson has the skill set to be a true three-down back. Johnson is one of the most efficient pass-catching running backs in football, but Houston typically doesn’t throw to running backs. Since O’Brien took over, no Houston running back has recorded more than 38 receptions or 327 receiving yards.
This obviously isn’t a good look from a fantasy perspective, but part of that might be due to the personnel. You’d be hard-pressed to manufacture running back targets when your best weapons are Miller, Alfred Blue, and a worn-down Arian Foster. Johnson is easily Houston’s best pass-catcher of the O’Brien era, so let’s see how O’Brien’s utilized dependable pass-catching backs in the past.
From 2009 to 2011, O’Brien served as the New England Patriots’ de-facto offensive coordinator. While he didn’t officially earn the title until 2011, he was the playcaller for all three seasons. During his time calling the shots, O’Brien got to work with an aging Kevin Faulk and a young Danny Woodhead. Faulk was well past his prime and tore his ACL early in 2010. Woodhead, however, could have done more under O’Brien. The Patriots love having a reliable pass-catching running back, yet Woodhead never exceeded 34 receptions, 379 yards, or one touchdown with O’Brien. Following O’Brien’s departure, Woodhead recorded 40 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns in 2012 with Josh McDaniels before recording 76 receptions for 605 yards and six touchdowns in 2013 with the Chargers.
This shows that O’Brien doesn’t tend to incorporate running backs into his passing attack. He may want to do that with Johnson, but he hasn’t demonstrated an ability to successfully throw to running backs. Perhaps that changes with Johnson, but there’s no historical precedent to support that theory.
Duke Johnson Average Draft Position
As of this posting, Fantasy Football Calculator hasn’t had time to accurately update Duke Johnson’s average draft position. Despite this, we can still evaluate where you should start thinking about taking him in your upcoming drafts.
The Texans gave up a significant amount of draft capital to acquire Johnson, so they clearly have big plans for the former Brown. He’s going to see the majority of the snaps in a high-powered offense, which is always good for fantasy.
However, he’s going to be running behind a below-average offensive line for the entirety of the season. Lamar Miller is still there, and he’ll probably end up siphoning away some of Johnson’s work. Additionally, O’Brien doesn’t have the best track record when it comes to incorporating running backs into the passing game.
The presumed workload alone means that Duke Johnson will some fantasy relevance. However, the poor offensive line and O’Brien’s sketchy track record keep him out of the RB2 range. Ultimately, he’ll probably finish with similar numbers to Tevin Coleman. Coleman is currently going in the sixth round of fantasy drafts, which is a good place to grab Johnson. Taking Johnson anywhere before the sixth is a reach.
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