With the first week of preseason games right around the corner, many fantasy football players are starting to put together their draft boards in hopes of bringing home another league championship. Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore is currently going off the board late in the fifth round, while teammate Curtis Samuel is getting drafted midway through the ninth. Smart fantasy owners will pass on Moore and instead make Samuel their late-round steal.
Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters
Draft Curtis Samuel Over D.J. Moore In Fantasy Football
The Case Against D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore is currently projected to be the 26th receiver off the board, which actually isn’t bad value. Considering Moore’s situation, it’s safe to assume he’ll finish somewhere around this mark. However, there are a few factors you should consider before selecting him.
Moore finished his rookie year with 55 receptions for 788 yards and two touchdowns. These numbers, while fine on their own, don’t tell the whole story with Moore. Head coach Ron Rivera is notorious for easing his rookies onto the field, so Moore didn’t see consistent playing time until Week Eight against the Baltimore Ravens. Moore recorded 42 receptions for 597 yards and one touchdown over the final 10 games of the season, making him the WR23 over that span.
This is obviously impressive for a rookie, and some might expect a second-year leap from the Maryland product. However, you should probably pump the brakes on that hype train. While he’ll still be a part of the offense, he probably won’t dramatically increase his numbers.
Most of Moore’s production came on scheme throws. Carolina’s coaching staff did a great job at creating opportunities for Moore and, to Moore’s credit, he made the most of his chances. That said, eventually opposing teams will learn how to counter these scheme designs. Moore will need to learn how to legitimately beat coverages and get open on his own. Up to this point in his career, he hasn’t shown an ability to do that.
Moore spent 25% of his snaps in the slot, so he’s still a safe bet to see a decent chunk of targets. However, he’s probably not capable of developing into a WR1 or even a high-end WR2. When you’re drafting in the fifth round, you want to try to find someone with decent upside. Moore doesn’t have that ability, and you’d be better off grabbing someone like Mike Williams.
The Case For Curtis Samuel
Most people assume that Moore will be the featured receiver in Carolina’s offense because of his draft pedigree. Moore was Carolina’s first-round pick in 2018, so it stands to reason that the team wants him to be the star of the offense. However, the Panthers also have a significant amount of draft capital invested in Curtis Samuel. Carolina took Samuel with the 40th pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, so they clearly liked him coming out of college.
Samuel had a slow start to his career, but most of that was due to forces outside of his control. As previously mentioned, Ron Rivera has a habit of easing his rookies into the action, so it took Samuel a while to see the field. Additionally, an ankle injury prematurely ended Samuel’s rookie season, which obviously cut into his development.
Samuel essentially redshirted through his rookie season and was primed for a breakout campaign in 2018. He took a while to earn a role, but he was fantastic once Rivera increased his workload. In 13 games, Samuel recorded 39 receptions for 494 yards and five touchdowns to go along with 84 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries. He was one of the most dangerous players on a per-touch basis and steadily increased his snap count as the season progressed. Samuel saw over 83% of the offensive snaps from Weeks 12 to 16, which shows that the coaching staff believes in his ability.
Samuel’s Skill and Future Utilization
Samuel is a lock to start in two-receiver sets, and the underlying data suggests he’s poised for a breakout campaign. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception is one of the most comprehensive databases on wide receiver play available, and Samuel is one of the studies biggest standouts. According to Harmon, Samuel has one of the most developed route trees in football and had one of the highest success rates of any player in the league. If the public knows this, then the coaches should as well.
Moore projects as the primary slot option in 2019, but the Panthers didn’t shy away from using Samuel in that role last year. According to Player Profiler, Samuel spent 22.2% of his snaps in the slot. Playing in the slot is good for fantasy, as slot receivers typically receive a higher percentage of targets. Samuel and Moore spent roughly the same percentage of their time in the slot and that usage could easily carry over into 2019. Samuel and Moore should see similar workloads and opportunities, but Samuel is the more talented player.
Overall Projection
Devin Funchess is now in Indianapolis, so we know that D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel will be on the field for the grand majority of Carolina’s offensive snaps. Both players should provide some fantasy value, but smart owners will target Samuel. While Moore is the higher draft pick, Samuel is the better player.
Samuel is an electric player with an advanced route tree and is capable of beating every coverage a defense can throw at him. Additionally, his top-level speed and elusiveness make him a threat to score every single time he touches the ball. Moore and Samuel spend roughly the same amount of time in the slot, so these two should have similar opportunities. Based on everything we’ve seen throughout their careers, Samuel has the better odds of capitalizing on said opportunities. Not only will Samuel have the better finish, but he’s going three rounds later than Moore. Curtis Samuel won’t singlehandedly win you a fantasy league, but he can be a key piece to a championship-caliber roster.
Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
