Marlon Mack was a surprisingly good running back in 2018 for the Indianapolis Colts. After splitting time in his rookie season behind super-veteran Frank Gore, Mack came into his sophomore season with a chance to put a stronghold on the starting job. Though he had some injury issues, he put up a much better than expected season, and enters 2019 looking to build on his success.
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Marlon Mack 2019 Fantasy Football Preview
Ultimate Boom or Bust Guy
Mack finished 2019 as the RB19 in standard leagues, and a little further down to the RB21 in PPR scoring. That is pretty good for a guy who only appeared in 12 games last season. However, as most fantasy footballers know, a player’s best asset is their availability.
Mack first injured his hamstring in the preseason, and it lingered long enough to keep him out of Week One of the regular season. However, Mack then re-injured his hamstring prior to Week Three, and then missed three more games. Mack later suffered a concussion but didn’t miss any games. In his rookie season, he also suffered a torn labrum that cost him Weeks Three and Four. He ended up playing the year through it and had surgery in the offseason to repair it.
If Mack can put his injury history behind him, he can have a huge year. His per-game average of 13.4 fantasy points was ninth-best in the league right under Joe Mixon, and better than David Johnson.
However, a closer analysis shows that he had some interesting splits in point totals. Mack had a few absolute monster games. Weeks Seven, Eight and 15, he put up point totals of 29.9, 26.9 and 24.9 points. Week 17 he also had over 100 yards and a touchdown (though no one was really playing fantasy that week).
However, he also had three games last year where he had under four points. Two other games he played he was saved by scoring a touchdown because he rushed for less than 40 yards. Breaking everything down, Mack was held under 40 yards in almost 42 percent of the games he started last season. However, it is also worth noting that he had over 100 yards in over 33 percent of his starts.
Coming Back to a High-Powered Offense
One thing that is for sure is that Mack will be coming back to one of the league’s most potent offenses, and running behind one of the top offensive lines out there. Indianapolis learned their lesson the hard way with quarterback Andrew Luck missing so much time. But Mack also has other weapons around him in the passing game.
T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron make defenses stay spread out across the field. And the Colts didn’t just sit contently on what they had either. They went out and swiped Devin Funchess from the Carolina Panthers to line up opposite to Hilton. Parris Campbell was also added to the team via the draft. Mack has a ton of guys to complement him all over the field.
Outlook and ADP
Mack is currently looking at an RB18 or 37 OVR ranking in drafts. This projects him to have about the same finish as last year, if not a little better. It is a solid spot that could end up being a value if he does indeed play every game next season. But, what if he doesn’t? He also could come back down to earth and finish worse if he gets shut down more often than he explodes.
In terms of value around that area, Damien Williams is going around the same time. Williams came on strong at the end of the year, and also plays on a strong offensive team. However, he is just as, if not more of a risk compared to Mack due to his lack of playing time.
One thing to truly consider is foregoing a running back at that pick and grabbing a receiver like Robert Woods or Kenny Golladay, and waiting until the next round to grab someone like Aaron Jones (44 OVR), or Phillip Lindsay (49 OVR). Those are two running backs that are criminally underrated.
All in all, Mack is a running back with about as high a ceiling week-to-week as anyone in the league. If he plays all 15 games, he has the potential to land in the top ten based on last year’s per-game average. However, injury risks and his boom-or-bust statlines make him a volatile selection compared to other backs with lower rankings.
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