The New England Patriots just lost one of their most painful games in recent memory. Stephen Gostkowski missed two crucial kicks, Tom Brady forgot how many timeouts there were before the half, and Kenyan Drake scored the game-winning touchdown on an absurd lateral play. This wasn’t the highest-stakes loss in Patriots history, but it certainly one of the more winnable matchups. New England now finds themselves at 9-4 with basically no chance to win home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
However, the sky isn’t falling on the 2018 Patriots. Far from it. There were plenty of positive takeaways from Sunday’s game buried by that terrible final play. Additionally, most of the errors from that Week 14 loss were easily fixable. These flaws in this team aren’t systematically unfixable. Whether or not the team can actually fix said problems is yet to be determined, but it can be done.
New England Patriots Problems Can Be Fixed
The Overlooked Positives
For the first time perhaps all season, the Patriots passing attack was clicking on all cylinders. Prior to Week 14, the Patriots had yet to fully incorporate Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, and Rob Gronkowski into the same gameplan. These three are the most dangerous weapons in the passing game (honorable mention to James White), and the offense can be nearly unstoppable if all three are clicking.
In Miami, the Patriots got all three on the same page. The trio finished with a combined 22 receptions for 289 yards and two touchdowns. Edelman is his usual reliable self, Gronkowski finally looks healthy, and Gordon says his conditioning is the best it’s been all season. Each one of these three has game-breaking ability, and defenses won’t be able to account for all three players if they’re all at 100%.
Additionally, Tom Brady has played his best football of the season. Over his past three games, Brady has completed 71 of 106 pass attempts for 952 yards, six touchdowns, and just one interception. He hasn’t lost any arm strength, as demonstrated by his strike to Cordarrelle Patterson.
With his weapons fully healthy over the past three weeks, Tom Brady has a 110.3 passer rating. By comparison, Brady finished his 2017 MVP season with a 102.8 passer rating. Maybe Brady needs his weapons more than he used to, but he’s 41. Some minor dropoff is expected. However, the last three weeks have proven that, with the right pieces, Brady can still play at an MVP level and keep pace with any offense in the league.
The Fixable Negatives
The biggest problems with the Miami loss were poor kicking, subpar defense, and a series of uncharacteristic mental mistakes. Make no mistake, all these elements were crucial to New England dropping yet another game in Miami. However, these problems aren’t systematic and can all be ironed out and fixed before the playoffs begin.
Let’s start with the kicking game. Stephen Gostkowski had one of the worst games of his career on Sunday, missing an extra point and a field goal attempt. Gostkowski blatantly cost the team four points, and they lost by one. Obviously, there’s a pretty direct correlation there.
Fortunately, you can chalk this one up to Gostkowski just having an off game. He’s no Adam Vinatieri, but Gostkowski has been one of the most reliable kickers since joining the Patriots. Gostkowski’s 87.3% field goal percentage is actually the third-highest in league history. While nobody would suggest he’s THAT good on an all-time scale, this still speaks to his effectiveness and consistency.
While some may not trust him in clutch situations, Gostkowski has actually proven himself to be a good kicker in big moments. Per Pro Football Reference, Stephen Gostkowski has a career 89.5% postseason field goal percentage. By comparison, Adam Vinatieri has an 82.4% postseason field goal percentage. Again, nobody is claiming Gostkowski is better than peak Adam Vinatieri. This is just to show that Gostkowski is more than capable of making kicks in the biggest moments. Some worry about his recent missed kicks in Super Bowls 51 and 52, but those are likely just flashes in the pan. Nobody should have panicked when Tom Brady had two-straight bad postseason games in 2009 and 2010, and nobody should be panicking about Gostkowski having a few misses in big games.
The Mental Errors
While the kicking game had a lot to do with the loss, mental errors played a much bigger role. The first big goof of the game came late in the first half. Down near the goal line with nine seconds to go, quarterback Tom Brady took a sack instead of throwing the ball away. Because of this, the clock ran out and the Patriots received no points. After the game, Brady said he forgot the team was out of timeouts. Again, this a three-point play and could have very well been the difference in winning and losing.
Fortunately, it’s Tom Brady we’re talking about here. The 41-year old quarterback is probably the most cerebral quarterback in the game, and seeing him make a rookie mistake like that is highly uncharacteristic. It’s pretty safe to assume that greatest quarterback of all time won’t make this mistake, or mistake like it, more than once.
Likewise, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick made a blunder of his own when he put Rob Gronkowski on the field for the final defensive play of the game. While Gronkowski is a good choice against the jump ball, he’s anything but a good open field tackler. With the Dolphins starting the play at their own 31, Belichick should have put someone like Josh Gordon in, as he’s capable of winning jump balls and making open field tackles.
Unfortunately, that’s not what happened and the Patriots lost. Fortunately, that was probably the weirdest way one could possibly lose a game. Those lateral plays naturally have one of the lowest success rates in the league, and the Patriots probably won’t fall victim to another one for the rest of the season. On top of that, Belichick has already gone on record of saying that he made the wrong call. Nobody is better at self-scouting than Bill Belichick, so that problem should be fixed the next time it comes up.
The Physical Errors
Of course, there were some physical errors too. For one, the Patriots defense let Miami gouge them through the air and on the ground. Kenny Stills had a field day, recording eight receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown. Frank Gore, meanwhile, ran for 7.7 yards per carry. On the final play of the game, the Patriots missed five tackles that would have otherwise ended the game with a victory.
The good news is that two of these problems were probably one-week flukes. Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty both entered Week 14 in Pro Football Focus’ top-10 cornerbacks. While that will likely change due to this weeks’ performance, these two are good far more often than they’re bad. The Patriots pass defense ranks 18th in Football Outsiders DVOA and are basically considered a middle of the pack unit. While there’s obviously room for improvement, they’re not as bad as they looked in Miami.
Additionally, there’s no real reason to worry about the tackling issue. As previously mentioned, five different players had a chance to tackle Kenyan Drake or Kenny Stills and walk out of Miami with a win. However, none of them could do that. On its’ own, this play was a horrible showing of ineffective and sloppy play. That said, this play was an outlier, as New England was the best tackling team in the league heading into Miami.
Per Pro Football Focus, New England’s 9.0 missed tackle percentage was best in the league. It was rare for them to miss five tackles in a game, much less a single play. There’s an overwhelming sample size that tackling isn’t a problem, so overreacting to one terrible play is a fruitless endeavor.
The Patriots run defense isn’t quite as easy a fix. Per Football Outsiders, New England currently has the 14th-ranked defense against the run. However, the unit has slipped up in recent weeks. As previously mentioned, Frank Gore ran for 7.7 yards per carry against the Patriots. One week earlier, Dalvin Cook ran for 9.3 yards per carry. This could have been a much bigger problem in Week 13, but Minnesota inexplicably just didn’t run the ball that often.
It won’t fix the whole problem, but perhaps the Patriots should consider putting Danny Shelton back in the defensive line rotation. Shelton hasn’t played up to expectation, but the run defense has been gashed in each of the two games he missed. If that won’t fix it, then the Patriots have some serious soul-searching to do before the playoffs start.
Last Word On New England’s Future
The New England Patriots Week 14 loss was one of the uglier ones in recent memory. Too many self-inflicted wounds allowed the Dolphins to stick around, while some questionable personnel moves are poor execution led to a heartbreaking loss on the games’ final play.
Fortunately, just about all of these issues are easily fixable. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are the two best at their respective jobs and are more than capable of correcting their mental errors heading into the playoffs. Stephen Gostkowski isn’t on Brady or Belichick’s’ level, but he’s still a top-10 kicker and should be better moving forward. Additionally, lost in the madness is that the passing game looked as good as it had all season long. Rob Gronkowski looks healthy and Josh Gordon is getting more and more comfortable by the week.
Similarly, most of the issues on the defensive side of the ball are easily fixable. The tackling problem looks like a one-week issue, as New England has been the best tackling team in football. Likewise, Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty have been one of the best cornerback duos in football. Chances are, they’ll bounce back from this bad week.
The run defense is the only problem without a clear solution. New England’s run defense has been league-average all season long but has struggled of late. Perhaps part of the solution is bringing Danny Shelton back into the mix, as the drop in run defense directly correlates with his absence. That probably won’t fix everything, but it would be a step in the right direction.
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
