It was nice not having to deal with the New England Patriots running back carousel. Over the years, the Patriots have been notorious for being completely unpredictable with their running back usage. However, that changed this year with running back James White.
White was one of the most dependable and reliable options at running back throughout the majority of the 2018 season. However, those times are now gone. Thanks to the healthy return of several key members of the Patriots, White is once more a part of a committee. This obviously doesn’t bode well for his production, and you should probably look on your waiver wire to see if there’s a better alternative out there.
James White In A Bad Place For Fantasy Football Playoffs
First off, let’s discuss why James White was such a good fantasy option in the first place. The longtime Patriot entered the season as one of four running backs expected to see the field. However, with Jeremy Hill and Rex Burkhead both hitting the injured reserve early in the season, White entered a two-man backfield with Sony Michel.
This alone gave him ample opportunity, but there were more absences affecting New England. Julian Edelman missed the first four games of the season with a suspension. Anyone who knows anything about the Patriots offense knows that your production is based entirely on the trust of Tom Brady. Nobody has a better chemistry with Brady than Edelman, but White is a close second. With no wide receivers to turn to for the first four games, New England effectively transformed White into Tom Brady’s security blanket early in the season.
This reliance on White continued even when Edelman returned to the lineup. Tight end Rob Gronkowski battled injuries throughout the first half of the season and clearly wasn’t himself. Additionally, running back Sony Michel was in and out of the lineup while dealing with knee injuries. Once more, White had to see a larger workload than desired, boosting his production while serving as Brady’s safety valve.
Bill Belichick Doesn’t Care About Your Fantasy Team
Even though James White was getting the job done, the Patriots don’t need him to have such a large role anymore. Both Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead are back in the lineup, while Rob Gronkowski is playing like his old self. Each one of these players is capable of doing what White can do while adding a little something extra to their game. White is still the best pure pass-catching running back of the bunch, but he’s back into a situational role.
The New England Patriots are also trying to lower the workload on their overworked back. As previously mentioned, White spent the early part of the season playing a wide variety of roles. So far on the season, White has played in 518 of New England’s offensive snaps. This is already well above his previous high of 426 snaps set back in 2016.
White’s never had to deal with major injuries before, but New England doesn’t like adding risk to their star players. Just look at what they did with Danny Amendola from 2014 to 2017. White played in 40% of the snaps against Miami, which is below his season average of 56%. While he can still be a flex play with that type of snap usage, he’ll have fewer opportunities, and thus a lower ceiling.
What to Expect From White Moving Forward
White is basically back into the same timeshare he was in last year. During the 2017 season, Dion Lewis was the lead back, Rex Burkhead was the change-of-pace, and James White came on in passing downs. This year, New England is basically doing the same thing except with Sony Michel replacing Dion Lewis.
Per FantasyPros.com, White finished 2017 as the RB48 in standard scoring, averaging just 5.6 points per game. His receiving ability made him a better play in PPR leagues, as he finished the year as the RB38 in that scoring format. Basically, White is a player you can flex based on the matchup.
Unfortunately, White doesn’t have the most favorable schedule ahead of him. The Patriots face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills in back-to-back weeks, and both teams are good at defending running backs in the passing game.
Per Football Outsiders, the Steelers allow just 29.1 receiving yards per game to the running back position, third-best in the league. Back in 2017, White recorded just two receptions for eight yards against Pittsburgh. The Bills, meanwhile, allow a roughly league-average 47.7 receiving yards per game to running backs. White could be playable in this matchup, as he recorded 10 receptions for 79 yards in their first meeting. That said, he’s unlikely to get that production again, as Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead both missed the previous matchup. If you start him, you’d be hoping for a touchdown.
Last Word on James White
James White has been one of the best surprises in the fantasy football landscape, but his stock has come crashing down. The New England Patriots are the healthiest they’ve been all year, which is actually bad news for White’s production. Instead of serving as arguably the top option in the passing game, White is now buried behind Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and Josh Gordon for targets. Additionally, Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead are both more natural runners than White.
White will still see the field, but his opportunities will be reduced. The Patriots will try to conserve him for the playoff run, as he’s already exceeded his season-high in snaps. Additionally, the Pittsburgh Steelers are among the best in the league at taking away running backs in the passing game. White could be playable in Week 16, but this is the fantasy playoffs. If you start White Week 15, you might not live to see Week 16.
At this point in the season, some owners might not have a better choice than to start White. However, if you are in that position, you owe it to yourself to look on the waiver wire and see what might be there.
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