The Green Bay Packers are in the midst of, quite possibly, the toughest five-game stretch of any NFL team this season. It began with back-to-back road trips to the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots and will conclude with back-to-back away tilts at the Seattle Seahawks and the Minnesota Vikings.
And, sandwiched in the middle is this week’s must-win game against the Miami Dolphins in the confines of Lambeau Field. The keys to victory are winning the turnover battle and cut down on penalties.
Green Bay Packers Must Win Turnover Battle in Week 10
Winning the Turnover Battle
It’s a fact that if you don’t turn the ball over the chances of your team winning are a lot higher than if you turn the ball over,” says Minnesota Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpeper.
Winning the turnover battle is an age-old maxim that everyone following the game always brings up in debates. Culpeper is not the only former insider with a strong opinion on turnovers. “Turnover differential is the number one factor in winning games,” says former Cowboys and Dolphins head coach Jimmy Johnson.
The data backs up the saying too. FootballPerspective.com’s Chase Stuart compiled a chart showing the winning percentage of teams who won the turnover battle going all the way back to 1950. He found that on average 78 percent of the teams who won the turnover battle, won the game.
Ill-Timed Turnovers Cost Wins
This season, the Packers have been uncharacteristically poor at protecting the football, which has cost them opportunities to win games. In the opener against archrival Chicago Bears, backup quarterback DeShone Kizer threw an interception, which Khalil Mack returned for a touchdown.
In their Week Five divisional battle in Ford Field against the Detroit Lions, Aaron Rodgers had two costly fumbles deep into Packer territory, which led to 10 easy Lions points. The man at the center of attention was longtime kicker Mason Crosby. He suffered the worst performance of his career. However, Rodgers was not blameless in that loss.
In the last two weeks, the Packers have suffered two late-fourth quarter fumbles that took away opportunities to win games. Ty Montgomery infamously fumbled a punt return with just over two minutes left in the game. That turnover sealed any chance Green Bay had at winning the game.
And, last week in Foxborough, Aaron Jones fumbled as the offense was approaching the red zone. The ill-timed turnover was the turning point as New England went on to take the lead rather than play catch up. The young running back did not shy away in the aftermath of the Sunday Night Football affair. Now, we’ll have to see how he responds from the notorious fumble.
Costly Penalties
The Packers are also undisciplined. 58 penalties have been called, thus far, against them, which sits them as the 11th-most penalized team in the NFL tied with two AFC East teams, the Dolphins and the New York Jets. However, Green Bay (1,465) has had significantly less total plays this season than the Dolphins (1,543) and the Jets (1,604).
Of the 13 most penalized teams, only the Seahawks (1,375) have less total plays this season than the Green and Gold. This means that a significantly higher percentage of Green Bay’s plays are nullified by their own mistakes. Some high-quality teams have been penalized more than Green Bay, but by and large, the teams with more penalties are bottom feeders.
The Kansas City Chiefs (first), Pittsburgh Steelers (second), Houston Texans (fifth), and Seahawks (ninth) are currently more penalized football clubs. However, the rest are the Buffalo Bills (third), Cleveland Browns (fourth), Denver Broncos (sixth), Baltimore Ravens (seventh), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (eighth), and Indianapolis Colts (10th).
Concerning yardage, these penalties have cost Green Bay 540 yards, which is sixth worst in the league. Perhaps once upon a time, Rodgers and his offensive companions would have been able to overcome those negative plays, but that is not the case for the lowly 3-4-1 Packers.
Green Bay has been flagged a total of 71 times through the first half of the season, which ranks 11th-worst in the league. Some excellent teams have been flagged more than Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Houston and Atlanta. However, the truth is the majority of the teams up there are bad.
This week they host the ‘Fins who have been penalized 26 times on the road this season while the Packers have been penalized 26 times at home.
Last Word
The game this week could be a battle of who makes fewer mistakes. Or, put it this way, which team does not lose. Green Bay is finding itself in, unfortunately, a similar situation to 2016 when they sat 4-6 through the first 10 weeks of the regular season.
Two years ago, Aaron Rodgers told the football world “we can run the table,” and he embarked on perhaps the greatest stretch of quarterback play in NFL history. This team needs a savior to create a spark. Does Aaron Rodgers have another run-the-table-esque run in him?
