Traditionally, the Packers are cautious in terms of their medical evaluations. Players are never rushed back from injury in Green Bay. Sam Shields has been out all season with a diagnosed concussion. This is also the team that did not even give JerMichael Finley or Nick Collins, Pro Bowl caliber players, a chance to return from serious injuries.
Now comes word that Jordy Nelson has at least two broken ribs. The Packers took a wait and see approach, but it appears Nelson is now ruled out for the Divisional Playoff game. Here are some key factors to remember that give Green Bay hope.
Jordy Nelson Injury and the Packers Chances
Jordy Nelson Missed Most of the Game Last Week
Jordy Nelson was knocked out of the game on a deep pass to the offense’s left with 11:14 left in the first half. At the time of the injury the Giants were leading 3-0. The Giants scored another field goal on the very next drive and made it 6-0. At the point Nelson left, he had only been targeted three times for one catch. After that start, the Packers outscored the Giants 38-7.
The Giants have the fourth-ranked pass defense according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Additionally, the Giants were the third-ranked rush defense using this metric. The Giants have a great defense. These points did not come against an inferior opponent. Dallas, on the other hand, is ranked 18th against the pass and 8th against the run (15th in overall defense).
The Packers did not accidentally score 38 points either. There was no fluke punt return or defensive touchdown. Yes, the fluke third Hail Mary touchdown pass in just over a year, but still 31 points off sustained drives. Nelson had no impact on the Packers in the Wild Card match up and the offense continued to roll without him.
Rise of the Rest
The narrative in the Packers’ 2015 season was blaming the loss of Jordy Nelson for the struggles the offense. The story was that no one else was ever getting open. This was an over-simplistic take that all the networks accepted. Ty Montgomery missed almost the entire season. Randall Cobb and Davante Adams also had to deal with injuries and missed time. Still, the emergence of several other players in the meantime has been a boon to the Packers offense.
Davante Adams has blossomed into the player that people hoped for when he flashed talent in his rookie season of 2014. Everyone knows that Nelson came back from injury to lead the NFL with 14 touchdowns, but only Packers fans might have noticed that Adams is actually tied for second with 12 touchdown grabs this year. Adams had 75 catches for 997 yards this season and has passed Randall Cobb as the second target in this offense. He has been finding separation this year and made plays once he had the ball. Adams has a better average yards after the catch (5.2 yards) than Nelson this year (3.7 yards). For further comparison, Julio Jones averaged 4.7 and Odell Beckham, Jr. also average 5.2.
Without Nelson last year, Cobb was thrust into the top receiver roll and struggled some. Having the ability to stick in the underneath routes and draw the second or third corner back has helped Cobb’s performances as well.
Addition of Jared Cook
The biggest difference is the addition of a healthy Jared Cook. With Cook on the field the Packers are 9-2 (counting the playoff win). Without Cook, the Packers are 2-4. The difference between a Packers offense with Cook and one without can be best described in Aaron Rodgers‘ numbers. In the eleven games with Cook, Rodgers completed 248 of 375 passes (66.1%) for 2,997 yards and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 29:1. That would be good for a Rating of 115.1. However, without Cook, Rodgers completed 178 of his 275 passes for 1,793 yards and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 15:6. That is a much weaker Rating of 92.3. To be very clear, the Packers have played six games against top-ten DVOA pass defenses and five of those were games with Cook. It was not a boost due to diminished competition.
Aaron Rodgers Is on a Tear
The biggest single factor in evaluating the Packers at this exact moment in history is the historic play of Aaron Rodgers. Since losing to the Tennessee Titans in Week 10, Rodgers has completed 193 of 281 passes (68.7%) for 2,380 yards, 22 touchdowns and no interceptions. That equals a QB rating of 120.7. Rodgers has now throw four touchdowns in three straight games. Two games against top five pass defenses (in all metrics) and a road game with a divisional foe.
There is no way to compare the Packers team that played the Cowboys in Week Five with this current version. The loss of Jordy Nelson cannot help but change the complexion of the Packers’ attack. Still, the Packers offense has shown that it is still explosive without him.
