The Seattle Seahawks secondary presents a very interesting problem for the Green Bay Packers. Seattle will bring the Legion of Boom to Lambeau Field for a Week 14 tilt. Seattle’s defense ranks in the top ten in both DVOA passing defense (sixth) and in passing defense as ranked by yards per game (ninth). Those numbers might give a small glimpse into what to expect this weekend.
Green Packers Game Plan for Seattle Seahawks Secondary Is Important
When Using DVOA
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is a statistic used at Pro Football Outsiders. The statistic seeks to level out the rankings of defenses based on the offenses they have faced. To this point in the season Green Bay has faced four teams ranked in the top ten in passing DVOA: Jacksonville Jaguars (10), Minnesota Vikings (2), New York Giants (7), and Philadelphia Eagles (4). The Packers managed to go 3-1 in those games.
Still, in these four games the Packers only managed seven touchdowns and had three interceptions. The Packers only put up 246.0 passing yards per game in those contests. But, only one of these games was in Green Bay.
The lone loss was at Minnesota. That is also the only game where Green Bay passed more than 60% of their plays.
When Using Yards Per Game
Again, the Packers have faced four teams in the top ten and went 3-1, but it was not the same four teams. In terms of yardage, Philadelphia and New York are replaced by the Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans. This shows how the DVOA statistic might be a more useful statistic as Green Bay had eight touchdowns to just one interception in these games.
In this case, again in contrast, the Packers had one game with a pass percentage higher than 60%, but that was the victory over the Bears.
Using Both Standards
When looking for better comparisons, teams that were top ten in both DVOA and yards are needed. Only Jacksonville and Minnesota were both top ten in each standard of measurement. Green Bay split these games though both were road games. The statistics in these two games were pretty similar. In Jacksonville Aaron Rodgers completed 20 of 24 passes for 199 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. In Minnesota, Rodgers completed 20 of 36 attempts for 213 yards with one touchdown and one pick.
One of the biggest differences was that against Minnesota the Packers passed on 65.0% of their plays. In Jacksonville, the Packers passed on just 58.4% of their plays. Seattle is worse than both Jacksonville and Minnesota in yards, but falls right between the two in DVOA.
One other comparable would be the recent game against the Eagles. This game is much more recent. Jacksonville and Minnesota were the first two games of the season and Philadelphia was just two weeks ago. Seattle is sixth in DVOA and ninth in yards. Similarly, Philadelphia is fourth in DVOA and 13th in yards. Against the Eagles the Packers passed on 58.2% of their plays. Rodgers was more accurate in this game and completed 30 of his 39 passes for 313 yards.
When looking at the games with Minnesota, Jacksonville and Philadelphia, Rodgers actually got more yards as his average depth of target (aDOT) dropped. Against the Jaguars Rodgers aDOT was 9.9 and he had 199 yards. Against Minnesota Rodgers had an aDOT of 8.8 and had 213 yards. Lastly, against the Eagles , Rodgers had an aDOT of 8.0 and had 313 yards.
Expect A Quick Passing Game
It seems reasonable to think Rodgers will play very similarly to his other comparable games he’s played this year. Just last year Rodgers was 25 of 33 against Seattle for 249 yards. Rodgers also had an aDOT way down at 6.6 yards. Also, Green Bay seems more likely to run the ball against good passing defenses. The Packers passed on at least 60% of their plays in seven games this year. The Bears and Vikings were the only two of these seven games where the Packers faced a team in the top ten of either DVOA or yards. In the six games against top ten teams of one metric or the other, the Packers stayed below 60% four times. The Packers had success in these games, going 5-1.
One of the big changes in the analysis is the sudden loss of Earl Thomas. Since Thomas’ injury occurred during last week’s game, there is not a lot of film on this. It is entirely likely the Packers will attempt to attack the safety position. Green Bay has seen Aaron Rodgers hold the ball plenty this year, but facing one of the best pass rushes in this league might convince him to throw sooner (like in last year’s game with the 6.6 aDOT).
Expect Green Bay to plan to use a short passing attack and mix in the run a fair amount this week. Green Bay has been successful against similar teams so far this year.
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