No one player is bigger than the NFL. Even when it comes to injuries or losses in free agency, the mantra is, and has always been “next man up.” It doesn’t matter if you reinvented the wheel and shattered every glass ceiling, when you’re gone, someone will be there to replace you.
Last off-season, Peyton Manning retired. At this moment, Tom Brady is 39 years old. Even Aaron Rodgers is approaching his mid-30s. There is a revolution brewing as the next generation of great passers are making their case to be considered the best in the league. So who is it? Who will replace Manning and Brady? Who is the best NFL quarterback under 30?
The Best NFL Quarterback Under 30
In March, a certain writer at LWOS took a stab at this by ranking his top ten quarterbacks under 30. According to him, it was Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks that was leading the way for young passers. And it’s easy to see why. Wilson’s numbers have been good, and he’s appeared in a Super Bowl in two of his four complete seasons. Behind Wilson were the likes of Cam Newton, the defending MVP, and Andrew Luck, the “perfect” prototypical quarterback.
However, halfway through the 2016 NFL season, it looks like that writer may have changed his mind. Because halfway through this season, there’s one young passer who’s outperforming all of them.
Wilting Wilson?
To be fair, Wilson’s woes aren’t entirely his fault. The 27-year-old has been struggling with knee, ankle, and chest injuries this year. Being able to extend plays with his legs has been a huge strength of Wilson’s game. After eight games last season, Wilson had thrown for 1,878 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions. Compared to the 2,094 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions that he’s thrown through eight games this year, you might think that he had improved as a passer.
And you wouldn’t be wrong, but the difference is what has been lost on the ground. At this point last season, Wilson had rushed for 303 yards. Through eight games, Wilson has only ran for 54 yards. Without his legs, or the support of a successful running back, Wilson has fallen off. He was sixth in passing touchdowns last season with 34, but after eight games, 27 guys have more passing touchdowns than he does. With their bye week already in the rear view mirror, Wilson may have to lean on his defense to stay atop the NFC West.
Newton Neutralized?
While Wilson’s injuries have hampered him, nobody really knows what’s going on with Cam Newton. Last season, Newton had a historic year, winning both the MVP and the Offensive Player of the Year awards. In 2015, Newton was responsible for 4,473 yards and 45 total touchdowns. On the arm and legs of Newton, the Carolina Panthers had the best record in football and made it to the Super Bowl.
Then the Super Bowl happened. Against the Denver Broncos defense, Newton looked awful. He completed less than 50% of his passes, failed to score, and turned the ball over three times. Von Miller and the Broncos defense ate Newton alive, and at least on paper, it looks like Denver gave the NFL the blueprint on how to beat him.
This season, Newton is on pace for only 4,157 total yards and 27 total touchdowns. As a passer, his projected statistics are mediocre at best. He’s only on pace for about 3,700 yards and 19 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. For whatever reason, the 27-year-old star doesn’t look like the future of the NFL this season.
Straight out of Luck
The other quarterback in the top three of that list was Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts. Two years removed from a 4,700 yard, 40 touchdown season, things look bleak for the former first overall pick. Nagging injuries kept him off the field in 2015, but he started 2016 with a bang. In week one, the 27-year-old (All three of these guys are 27, and that’s weird) threw for almost 400 yards and four touchdowns. What’s wrong with that? Nothing. That’s a phenomenal effort. The only problem was that it was a losing effort.
Yup. Despite the fact that Luck had a monster game, the Colts lost to the Detroit Lions 39-35. Luck completed 66% of his passes, aired the ball out, and didn’t have a single turnover, and the Colts still lost.
Luck is third in passing yards (2,565), and fifth in touchdown passes (17), but the Colts are only 4-5. The Colts are scoring almost 27 points a game, which is seventh best in the league, but they’re giving up 28 points a game. Luck simply can’t carry this team on his own, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to. Quarterbacks like Archie Manning, Bert Jones, and even Drew Brees have been held down by bad rosters.
Sadly, this isn’t going to change any time soon. General manager Ryan Grigson is awful at his job, and it’s becoming apparent that the Colts let the wrong coach leave when they chose Chuck Pagano over Bruce Arians.
Grigson’s idea of giving Luck the weapons that his predecessor had was signing guys that were great when Peyton was in Indianapolis. Signing ancient players like Frank Gore and Andrew Johnson to rejuvenate Luck’s offense is ridiculous. Not quite as ridiculous as trading a first round pick for someone like Trent Richardson, which he also did, but still pretty crazy.
The reality is that Luck has to try and get by with weapons like T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Tom Brady may have been able to win with mediocre talent, but he’s the exception to the rule. The stress of carrying this team has already taken a toll on Luck’s body. Sometimes he has to try and win games on his own, and that’s just not a sustainable strategy. Players like Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson have burned themselves out trying to carry bad teams.
The Sad Truth
It isn’t Andrew Luck’s fault that his front office is inept. It isn’t Cam Newton’s fault that the things that worked last year don’t fly this year. And it isn’t Russell Wilson’s fault that his body has been holding him back.
It’s a sad truth, but the best players don’t always enjoy the best careers. Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, and Warren Moon retired without Super Bowl wins. Sometimes crazy things happen, and they change the face of the NFL.
New England Patriots quarterback Drew Bledsoe was hurt against the New York Jets in the second week of the 2001 season. In his absence, an unknown quarterback from the University of Michigan stepped up and took over the team. 15 years later, we know that unknown back-up as Tom Brady, a four-time Super Bowl champion, and clear as day first ballot Hall of Famer.
Sometimes the best players don’t get the best breaks. Some guys have better teams, play against weaker opposition, or are just lucky. But at the end of the day, what they do on the field, regardless of the help they have or how they got there, is what defines them. That’s what leads us to the big answer, who the best quarterback under 30 really is.
The Chosen One
As strange as it sounds, it looks like Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders is the best quarterback under 30. In only his third season, Oakland’s young passer is being considered as an MVP candidate. In fact, if Carr were to win the prestigious award, he would be the youngest MVP in NFL history.
Stats
Why is he the best? Well, there are a lot of reasons. Firstly, his statistics are phenomenal. Before this season even started, Carr had already thrown the second most touchdowns to start a career in NFL history. Only Dan Marino had more touchdowns (68) than Carr (53) through two seasons. And when you consider that Marino threw 48 touchdown passes in his second season, for Carr to even be close is a miracle.
If Carr continues on his current pace (en route to 30 touchdowns this season), he’ll remain right on pace with Peyton Manning over the first three seasons of his career. Considering that Manning retired with all of the [good] passing records, starting his career with a similar stat line can only be good news. In fact, Carr would be just three touchdowns behind Luck’s total after three years, and that’s including the aforementioned 40 touchdown season.
Support
The most important thing going for Derek Carr is that the Oakland Raiders are on the up and up. Currently, the Silver and Black are 7-2, and have sole possession of the AFC West, the best division in football. There’s no question that Carr has been the catalyst for the Raiders return to greatness, he hasn’t done it alone.
Unlike Luck or even Wilson, Derek Carr has some great pieces on offense. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree help create the best receiver tandem in football, and it’s not even close. Cooper is a home-run hitter, capable of breaking off huge plays anywhere on the field, and Crabtree is a red zone nightmare, currently sitting at third in the league with six touchdown catches. Throw in complementary pieces like Seth Roberts, Latavius Murray, and Clive Walford, and it’s easy to see why passers around the league would envy Carr.
But that’s not the biggest reason the offense has been so dynamic (fifth in yards and points per game) this year. The truth is that the Raiders might have the very best offensive line in football. The left side of this offensive line is absolutely ridiculous.
According to Pro Football Focus, Donald Penn (85.9), Kelechi Osemele (85.7), and Rodney Hudson (84.8) are all elite linemen. Last week against the Denver Broncos, they pushed players like Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware around like they were nobody on the way to a 218 yard, three touchdown rushing performance. In pass protection, Carr has only been sacked 11 times in nine games. That’s the least of any quarterback that has started nine games this year.
In Summation
While the jury is still out on who will replace Manning and Brady, one thing is clear. There are plenty of really talented young passers applying for the job, with more joining the fray every season. Everyone has their favorites, but this sportswriter says Derek Carr is the best quarterback under 30, and has the easiest path to the top.
