Welcome back to NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, we shift to Game 1 of this second-round Western Conference matchup with the Anaheim Ducks vs Vegas Golden Knights, with both teams opening what projects to be one of the most stylistically contrasting series of the playoffs.
Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs Vegas Golden Knights Game 1
Regular Season Series: Anaheim won 3-0
Time: 9:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch
US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max | Canada TV: SN, SN360, TVAS, SN+
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Setting the Stage
Game 1 opens with Anaheim carrying momentum after eliminating Edmonton in six games, while Vegas arrives after a controlled and structured series win over Utah. However, this matchup represents a clear step up in defensive resistance for the Ducks. Vegas does not trade chances the way Edmonton did. Instead, they compress space and force teams into low-quality looks.
Credit Image: © Alex Cave/ZUMA Press Wire
Meanwhile, Anaheim’s identity remains built on pace and offensive pressure. That approach worked in Round 1, but sustainability becomes the central question here. Furthermore, Game 1 often sets the tactical tone for a series. If Anaheim can impose tempo early, this series could open up. If Vegas dictates structure, it likely becomes a grind.
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
Anaheim’s path remains rooted in offensive pressure and depth scoring. The Ducks generated consistent chances throughout Round 1, with young players driving much of that production. Leo Carlsson continues to be a reliable shot generator, while Cutter Gauthier enters Game 1 after a five-shot performance in the series-clinching win.
However, defensive consistency remains the concern. Anaheim allowed at least three goals in every game last round, and that margin tightens significantly against a structured opponent. Meanwhile, Lukas Dostal remains volatile in net despite strong stretches, posting an .874 save percentage in the first round.
Furthermore, Anaheim must address its starts. Slow openings nearly cost them in earlier games. Against Vegas, falling behind early likely plays directly into the Golden Knights’ preferred game script.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Troy Terry with 00:47 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Leo Carlsson and Chris Kreider.Anaheim: 4Edmonton: 1#EDMvsANA #FlyTogether #LetsGoOilers
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-01T12:51:05.796186Z
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
Vegas enters this series with a more stable and repeatable formula. Jack Eichel continues to anchor the top line and drive offensive creation, while Pavel Dorofeyev provides consistent shot generation in secondary roles. However, the real advantage lies in structure. Vegas limits breakdowns and rarely beats itself.
Meanwhile, their penalty kill operated at 93.8 percent in Round 1, which directly challenges Anaheim’s most dangerous weapon. That unit forces opponents into perimeter play and clears rebounds effectively. Furthermore, Carter Hart has provided steady goaltending with an .898 save percentage, allowing Vegas to maintain control even when shot volume rises.
If Vegas executes cleanly, they can turn this game into a controlled, territorial matchup rather than a track meet.
Power play goal for Vegas!Scored by Mitch Marner with 07:51 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Shea Theodore and Jack Eichel.Utah: 1Vegas: 4#VGKvsUTA #TusksUp #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-02T04:55:00.704554Z
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
MoneyPuck projects Vegas at approximately 63 percent for Game 1, while market odds in the -166 range align closely after removing vig. HockeyStats supports a similar edge, emphasizing Vegas’ defensive profile and expected goal suppression. Meanwhile, the in-house model slightly narrows the gap by accounting for Anaheim’s offensive surge in Round 1.
After blending all inputs, Vegas lands in the 60 to 62 percent range. Fair odds project near -150 to -160, confirming a consistent but not overwhelming edge.
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction
Game 1 presents a classic contrast between momentum and structure. Anaheim enters with confidence and offensive rhythm, but Vegas represents a fundamentally different challenge than Edmonton.
However, over a full 60 minutes, Vegas’ defensive discipline and ability to control pace should begin to tilt the game. Meanwhile, Anaheim’s reliance on high-event hockey becomes harder to sustain against a team that limits second chances and capitalizes on mistakes.
Expect Anaheim to generate stretches of pressure, but Vegas is better positioned to absorb and respond.
Prediction: Vegas Golden Knights win 4-2 (Model Probability: ~61%)
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction Record: 5–1
Prop Bets of the Night
Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal )-160) remains a strong play entering Game 1. His usage continues to trend upward, and his five-shot performance in the series-clinching game reinforces his role as a primary volume shooter. Even in a more controlled matchup, his deployment should generate enough attempts to clear this number.
Meanwhile, Leo Carlsson over 2.5 shots on goal (-155) offers a steady secondary angle. His shot generation has remained consistent regardless of game flow, and increased offensive responsibility ensures continued opportunity. If Anaheim pushes pace at any point, Carlsson is typically at the centre of that pressure.
Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Record: 10–7 (+1.16 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
Main Photo Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
