Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. Our featured game of this edition is the Tampa Bay Lightning visiting the Montreal Canadiens. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
NHL Predictions: Canadiens vs Lightning, Game 6
Series: Canadiens 3-2 Lightning
How to Watch: Sportsnet+, CBC, TVA, RDS, ESPN, ESPN2
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
After securing a 3-2 win in Game 5 on the road, the Canadiens return to the Bell Centre with the chance to eliminate the Lightning in Game 6 and move on to play the winner of the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins series. This series has been tightly contested, with the team’s trading wins back and forth the entire series. Tampa Bay is trying to keep that trend going to get back to Tampa for Game 7, while the Canadiens are looking to put the final nail in the coffin for the Lightning.
The Canadiens Story
Game 5 was an emotional one as we saw the return of the longest tenured Canadien and alternate captain, Brendan Gallagher. Gallagher wasted no time putting his mark on the series, scoring just three minutes into the game. Despite getting just 6:48 minutes of ice time, Gallagher led by example, going into the dirty areas of the ice as he does, laying the body and mixing it up in front of both nets. One thing about Gallagher is that he always leaves everything out on the ice. There is never a time when he’s not giving 100%, and though it was strange to not see him in the lineup to start the series, he’s back now and already has made his mark on the series. We expect to see an even more energized Gallagher in tonight’s game.
The Canadiens top line has been rather quiet since the start of the series. Juraj Slafkovsky opened the series with a bang, scoring a hat-trick in Game 1. However, since then, he’s been held pointless and hasn’t really looked the same since his fight with Brandon Hagel. Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have five and four points, respectively. Which seems fine given it’s only been five games; however, Caufield only has one goal and hasn’t really been much of a factor thus far. Suzuki has yet to find twine. Expect more from the top line tonight.
Depth Leading the Way
Where the Canadiens are getting production from is their depth. Alexandre Texier has stepped up, scoring two goals and four points in the five games, including the game-winner in Game 5. Zachary Bolduc also has four points in five games, while Kirby Dach has bounced back since his rough showing in Game 2, with two goals and an assist. If they can get some production from the top line as well as the continued help from their depth, it should be smooth sailing for the Canadiens.
Goaltending
In goal, where would the Canadiens be without Jakub Dobes? Dobes now has a 3-2 record with a 2.49 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage. He strolled into Tampa Bay and helped the Canadiens steal Game 5, making 38 saves and only allowing two goals en route to victory. Dobes will be getting the call in this elimination game in front of 21,000-plus screaming Canadiens fans, looking to move on to Round 2.
The Lightning’s Story
On the Lightning’s side of the coin, they’re now facing adversity heading into hostile territory to try to extend the series. Tampa Bay’s top players have been exactly that. Brandon Hagel has led the way for the Lightning. Hagel has scored at least a goal in every game so far, leading the team with six goals so far this series. Not to be outdone, Jake Guentzel has been outstanding in the series as well, scoring two goals and leading the Lightning with eight points. And of course, we have Nikita Kucherov, who currently has a goal and six points in five games.
The Lightning’s best players have done everything possible to help their team; however, this is why things are dicey for the club. They still find themselves down 3-2 in a series where their top guys have produced heavily, while the top players of the Canadiens have not. They need to get some more help from their depth if they have any hope in winning this series, while also keeping the top scorers of the Canadiens quiet.
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy will go between the pipes for the Lightning again tonight. Vasilevskiy has a 2.68 goals-against average and a .880 save percentage through five games thus far. He will need to hope to improve those numbers in order to steal one on the road for the Lightning tonight.
Prediction and Best Bets
This game will certainly be another hard-fought affair between both teams. Every game so far has been a one-goal game, and we expect the same outcome tonight. With the Canadiens returning home and warrior Gallagher back in the lineup, we expect them to be even more energized to get this finish and move on to Round 2. The top line helps the Canadiens get it done tonight.
Prediction: Canadiens win 3-2
Best Bets
For our best bets on the Canadiens side, we like Brendan Gallagher as an anytime goal scorer at (+625). He’s playing in his first game back at the Bell Centre in the playoffs, and we expect him to be extra motivated in this one to help his team get the job done.
For the Lightning’s side, we like Brandon Hagel as an anytime goal scorer at (+155). Hagel has scored in every game so far, and we expect him to keep that trend going tonight.
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Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
