Welcome back to NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, we shift to Game 5 of this first round Western Conference matchup as the Edmonton Oilers host the Anaheim Ducks with Anaheim holding a 3-1 series lead.
NHL Predictions
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks Game 5
Series: Anaheim leads 3-1
Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 7:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max, Victory+, KCOP-13 | Canada TV: CBC, SN, TVAS, SN+
Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
Setting the Stage
The Edmonton Oilers return home facing elimination after dropping three straight games in this series. Meanwhile, the Anaheim Ducks have placed themselves firmly in control, finding multiple ways to win through four games.
However, Game 4 was not without controversy, as the overtime winner came off a chaotic crease sequence that required video review before ultimately standing.
This series continues to present a tension between projection and execution. Anaheim has dictated pace, leveraged depth scoring, and capitalized on special teams. Conversely, Edmonton has generated strong underlying numbers but has struggled to consistently convert those advantages into wins.
Ultimately, Game 5 represents the first spot in the series where both the situation and the model align. Edmonton faces a must-win scenario, and their underlying profile still suggests a team capable of controlling play.
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
The Ducks enter Game 5 with confidence and a clearly repeatable formula. Anaheim continues to generate offence through depth scoring and sustained offensive pressure.
Meanwhile, Leo Carlsson remains a central driver of that attack. His shot generation has become one of the most consistent elements of the series, creating a reliable source of offence.
Additionally, Cutter Gauthier continues to play an increasingly important role. His ability to generate shots and finish chances adds another dimension to Anaheim’s forward group.
Furthermore, Anaheim’s defensive structure has limited Edmonton’s ability to fully take over games. Combined with steady goaltending from Lukas Dostal, the Ducks have consistently controlled key moments.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Ryan Poehling with 17:31 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Mason McTavish.Anaheim: 4Edmonton: 3#EDMvsANA #FlyTogether #LetsGoOilers
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-27T05:01:01.482951Z
Edmonton Oilers Storylines
Edmonton’s path in Game 5 is straightforward. Their top players must drive results in a way that has not fully materialized across the series.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to produce, but the Oilers have lacked consistent support behind them. Meanwhile, Edmonton’s defensive structure has broken down at key moments, allowing Anaheim to generate high-danger chances.
However, there are signs of stabilization. Tristan Jarry provided a more controlled performance in Game 4, giving Edmonton a baseline level of goaltending they had not consistently received earlier in the series.
Additionally, the Oilers’ power play remains a major regression candidate. Despite limited success so far, the talent level suggests improvement is likely, particularly in a high-leverage game environment.
Power play goal for Edmonton!Scored by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with 13:28 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid.Anaheim: 0Edmonton: 2#EDMvsANA #FlyTogether #LetsGoOilers
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-27T02:11:34.427914Z
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
The in-house model continues to favour Edmonton based on stronger finishing metrics and long-term offensive output. Meanwhile, MoneyPuck projects the Oilers at approximately 60 percent for Game 5.
HockeyStats aligns with an even stronger Edmonton edge, placing the Oilers closer to 63 percent while projecting a clear scoring advantage.
After removing market vig from the -175 range and blending all inputs, Edmonton lands between 60 and 63 percent. Fair odds project closer to -150, indicating a meaningful edge in this matchup.
Ultimately, this is the strongest alignment between model expectation and game context seen in this series.
Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions
Game 5 shifts the balance toward Edmonton for the first time in the series. While Anaheim has executed effectively, regression indicators and game context now point toward an Oilers response.
However, Anaheim’s ability to generate offence and control pace should still keep this game competitive. The Ducks have proven they can push Edmonton into uncomfortable situations.
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers win 4-3 (Model Probability: ~60%)
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction Record: 3-1
Prop Bets of the Night
We close out NHL predictions with some prop bets of the night.
Leo Carlsson over 3.5 shots (+115) remains a consistent angle in this series. His role and shot volume continue to support this play, even as the line has adjusted upward.
Meanwhile, Cutter Gauthier over 2.5 shots provides a strong complementary option. His usage has increased, and his ability to generate attempts fits well within Anaheim’s offensive structure.
Additionally, Kasperi Kapanen anytime goal offers value. His role alongside top offensive players and strong underlying impact metrics position him as a high-upside scoring option.
Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Record: 8-4 (+2.21 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Please bet responsibly.
Main photo: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
