Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey breakdown the action with in-depth analysis. We look at key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how things might play out. For this edition, we turn our attention to the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Montreal Canadiens for Game 1 of their first-round Eastern Conference Stanley Cup Playoff series. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as the series rolls on.
NHL Predictions with Lightning vs Canadiens – Game 1
Time: 5:45 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to watch: TNT, truTV, HBO Max, SN, CBC, TVAS, The Spot
Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL
2025–26 Season Series: Montreal won the season series 2-1-1.
Overview
Credit Image: © Dirk Shadd/MCT/ZUMAPRESS.com
The Lightning (50-25-6) enter as the number-two seed in the Atlantic Division with home-ice advantage in this opening round series. The Canadiens (48-24-10) finished third. Both clubs finished with 106 points on the season, making this one of the most evenly matched first-round draws in the East. The loss in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final kicked off Montreal’s rebuild, and now here they are, facing Tampa Bay again as a sign that the rebuild is nearing an end.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay finished ranked fourth in the league in goals per game at 3.49. The engine behind it all remains Nikita Kucherov, who finished with 130 points on 44 goals and 86 assists in 76 games, averaging an NHL-best 1.71 points per game. He is a Hart Trophy frontrunner and the kind of player who bends a series to his will before the other team realizes it’s feeling like a pretzel. Jake Guentzel had a strong regular season, finishing with 38 goals and 50 assists across 81 games.
Brayden Point and Victor Hedman, both of who were slowed by injury in 2025-26, could end up as a factor that could prove significant as the series progresses. Point had been back with the Lightning, but Hedman remains out. He is skating, but his timetable for return remains unclear. Between the pipes, Andrei Vasilevskiy posted a 39-15-4 record with a 2.31 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage. He led the league in wins and remains one of the most experienced postseason goaltenders alive. He’s a near-automatic steadying force when games tighten in the third.
Tampa Bay — Keys to Victory
NHL Predictions thinks the Bolts need to deploy its top line early and often. Kucherov, Guentzel, and Hagel have the firepower to dictate tempo from the drop of the first puck. The Lightning held a 26-10-4 record at home this season, making Benchmark International Arena a genuine advantage. One they’ll need to protect in a series where Montreal won the last two regular-season meetings. Also, special teams will be critical. Tampa’s power play ranked 17th in the league at 20.7%, while their penalty kill checked in at third at 82.6%. The Bolts must stay disciplined and keep Montreal’s power play off the ice.
Montreal Canadiens Outlook
Montreal arrives in Tampa riding the momentum of a breakout regular season and a roster that has quietly become one of the most exciting young groups in hockey. Nick Suzuki recorded 101 points, with 29 goals and 72 assists. Cole Caufield reached the 50-goal plateau. Lane Hutson added 78 points, Juraj Slafkovsky 73, and Ivan Demidov 62 in what was a breakout season across the board. Slafkovsky has been particularly effective against Tampa, posting seven points (four goals, three assists) in four regular-season meetings this year. He is the kind of powerful, skilled forward who can make life difficult for any defence in the league. In goal, Jakub Dobes finished the regular season with a 29-10-4 record, a 2.78 GAA, and a .901 save percentage. Numbers that represent a significant step forward for the 24-year-old Czechia netminder. Against Tampa specifically, Dobes went 2-1-0 with a .928 save percentage and a 2.15 goals-against average in three appearances. He enters the playoffs with momentum, even after dropping his final two regular-season starts.
Montreal — Keys to Victory
NHL Predictions thinks the Canadiens need to do what they did late in the season series: control the puck in the offensive zone and make Tampa defend. Montreal’s forecheck wore Tampa down in both March and April wins, and that identity has to carry over to the playoff stage. Both teams ranked first and second in the league in 5v5 shooting percentage: Montreal at 11.27% and Tampa at 11.18%. Meaning, whoever creates more high-quality looks will likely win. Montreal must also limit Kucherov’s time and space. When he has room to operate, no team in hockey is safe. Montreal’s power play came in 10th at 23.1%, and their penalty kill sat 18th at 78.2% the penalty kill, in particular, will need to tighten up against one of the most lethal offensive units in the East.
NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?
This is about as close as a first-round matchup gets. There isn’t much that separates these two Atlantic Division teams. Each finished with 106 points, each staked a claim to first place in the division at different times before the Buffalo Sabres nipped them at the line. Tampa’s home-ice advantage and the presence of Vasilevskiy give the Bolts an edge in a Game 1 environment. But Montreal’s young core has shown they don’t wilt under pressure, and Dobes has already proven he can steal a game in Tampa.
Prediction: Lightning 4, Canadiens 3 (overtime)
NHL Predictions: Prop Bets of the Night
Disclaimer: Please check social media for the latest lineup news and betting lines before locking in your daily fantasy rosters or using these suggestions as the final word.
Lightning Team Prop – Over 3.5 Goals (+110) Tampa scored 12 goals against Montreal in four regular-season meetings. Their home environment and Kucherov’s presence in the playoffs make the over an attractive option.
Anytime Goal Scorer – Juraj Slafkovsky (+160) Seven points against Tampa this season. He’s been one of the Canadiens’ most dangerous players in this matchup all year long, and playoff hockey suits his physical style.
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports
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