Here at Last Word On Hockey, just like last year and the year before that, we will cover all of the series from the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. For each of the series, we will feature a preview, a mid-series analysis, and a series finale recap. That’s not to mention our regular predictions and any news or rumours going on league-wide. So, join us for this festive time of the hockey season. For today’s focus, we have the series preview between the Eastern Conference regular-season champion Carolina Hurricanes, taking on the second Wild Card team, the Ottawa Senators. Game 1 goes today at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) from North Carolina.
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference First Round: Senators and Hurricanes Series Preview
Carolina and Ottawa are loaded with high-end talent on both sides of the sheet. Sebastian Aho can counteract Tim Stutzle, or Jaccob Slavin can contain Dylan Cozens’ powerful attack. You know captain Brady Tkachuk will factor in throughout the series, in all stat categories, from hits to game-winners. Just like the fact that the Canes had seven 20-goal scorers. (Ottawa had five).
These two teams have never met in the playoffs. However, as they enter this series, they are two teams that play somewhat similarly. Even though the Rod Brind’Amour-coached Canes probably play with more pace, they both play stifling styles of structured defensive games. The team that gets better goaltending is likely going to walk away victorious.
Both teams do come into this game very healthy. Carolina doesn’t appear to have any tangible injuries, and sport a lineup Brind’Amour has the most confidence with for himself. Head coach Travis Green did provide an update on their one main injury, defenceman Tyler Kleven. He skated with the main group yesterday, so we do expect, even if he doesn’t start the series, he isn’t far away, especially if his fill-in Dennis Gilbert falters.
Credit Image: © Luis Santana/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire
The Hurricanes and Senators 2025-26 Season Series Recap
The Senators were 44-27-11 and the Hurricanes were 53-22-7 to wrap up their respective 2025-26 NHL regular seasons. Tim Stutzle led the Sens in goals with 34, and Seth Jarvis led the Canes with 32.
The teams played each other three times, starting January 24th. They played again on February 3rd. Furthermore, that was a tough stretch for the Sens, in terms of strength of schedule. The same again occurred during their most recent matchup on April 5th. Carolina leads the season series, 2-1, yet, the goal difference was only 11-10 Carolina. Any way you slice it, two very close pieces, like the apple of my eye. Enough of that nonsense.
Carolina got out to a quick start against James Reimer in the first meeting, and never looked back. Brandon Bussi was strong in the 4-1 victory in Ottawa.
The Senators Keys to Victory
For the Ottawa Senators to win this series, they do need to stick with what they’ve been doing, in some sense. The challenge is overcoming the fact that the Carolina Hurricanes play a very effective approach themselves. Head coach Rod Brind’Amour and company play a very fast-paced, offensive-minded style. They have the high-end skill and depth to be successful in many different situations.
From the stats above, it is impressive that the Sens have four of the best lines, analytically. One of the great strengths of the Sens, is the matchup game. Just as it is impressive the Sens have four lines in the top 13, Carolina having two lines in the top 19, is a positive sign, as well.
One further comment, is the special team differential. It was known that Ottawa struggled mightily to begin the 2025-26 campaign. Ottawa carries the eighth best power play (24.0%), and the 29th penalty kill (75.7%). However, it improved from being closer to 70%, earlier in the season. Carolina comes in at fourth on the power play (24.9%), and 11th on the PK, at 80.5%.
The great equalizer of the playoffs, is the reset. It really isn’t about where you were all season, it is about where you are right now. It is like stars coming back from injury on any team, there is just a jolt of energy to the entire roster.
The Hurricanes Keys to Victory
The Hurricane key to victories are similar to the Sens. Offensive efficiency when the game is on the line will be important. Yes, they have been very dominant in prior seasons due to their skill when it comes to getting past the first round. Conversely, the Ottawa Senators are not a typical first-round opponent for a strong team. This will make for a very close series.
Let’s check out a stat for a minute. Since December 1st, the NHL standings are as follows.
After that point, the Sens goaltending struggles continued for sometime. Therefore, it is impressive that they were that strong from that point on. If we made the timeline more recent, you can imagine the Sens did continue to improve. It is very thorough documentation following Ullmark so closely this year. It was no wonder it was a strain on him, ultimately. He will emerge stronger because of it. And these playoffs will be the best time to start. Let’s go.
In mentioning the goaltending, that is a potential weakness of the Hurricanes. They essentially ran a three-goalie rotation this year in Carolina. Brandon Bussi played 39 games, Frederik Andersen appeared in 35 contests, while Pyotr Kochetkov got into nine games.
We will just recap the starting goalie stats. Bussi went an impressive, and Andrew Hammond (Hamburglar-esque) 31-6-2 on the season. He had a 2.47 goals-against average, an .894 save percentage, and two shutouts. Moreover, Ullmark went 28-12-8, with three shutouts. He sports a 2.73 GAA and an .891 SV% on the 2025-26 campaign. He showed a steady improvement through the season
Linus Ullmark and a Recap of his 2025-26 Season with the Ottawa Senators
Senators vs Hurricanes Series Odds and Predictions
Series Outcome Prediction: Hurricanes win the series in seven games.
In the end, we think the Hurricanes are too deep on high-end skill. Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Jaccob Slavin are able to play a game that can be hard to get an advantage on. Make no mistake, Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, and Tim Stutzle will bring all they got. In the end, if we are calling a seven-game first-round series, it could tip either way.
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Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images
Goal Differential among playoff teams over the last 3 months:
Best:
1. #CarolinaCulture: +41
2. #Sabrehood: +36
3. #GoSensGo: +35
4. #TexasHockey: +24
5. #GoHabsGo: +23Worst:
12. #NHLBruins: +11
13. #LetsGoFlyers: +8
13. #VegasBorn: +8
15. #FlyTogether: -3
16. #GoKingsGo: -11— T Raynard (@MrTRaynard) April 17, 2026
