Welcome to the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs with the Ottawa Senators visiting the Carolina Hurricanes for Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round series. This is NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey. This is where we break down key storylines, statistics, and analysis to try to decipher how the games will play out. Who gets the drop in the first game of their first-round playoff series? Will the Canes prevail on home ice, or will Ottawa jump out to a huge advantage? Find out our thoughts next.
NHL Predictions with Senators and Hurricanes
Season Series: Carolina won the season series 2-1-0, but only outscored Ottawa 11-10 in those three meetings of strong teams.
Puck Drop: 3:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) || 12:00 p.m. Pacific
How to Watch: Sportsnet, TVAS, FanDuel Sports Network South, ESPN
Location: From the raucous Lenovo Center, live from Raleigh, North Carolina.
Credit Image: © Alex Cave/ZUMA Press Wire
Ottawa does officially come into this series as underdogs. Therefore, Game 1 on home ice, you do really need to favour the Canes. According to MoneyPuck, Ottawa’s disadvantage is 59 to 41 %, for Carolina to come away triumphant in round one. Someone is going to have to step up, to be the difference maker. Any guesses who?
The Sens come into this one well rested. That is important, as they have been banged up this year. Plus, there is the natural reset of the playoffs. You get to gameplan for the same team, over a seven-game series, potentially. You will know the tendencies, the strengths and weaknesses of your opposition, down to a tea, by the end of it.
As we touch on in our series preview, both teams enter relatively healthy. Of course, it is playoffs, and there are many people playing through various ailments, it is unavoidable. The main injury update is on Sens defenceman Tyler Kleven. He is close, if he doesn’t end up going today. Dennis Gilbert would be slotted in as his replacement.
The Head-to-Head Matchup
Coming into this one, the goaltending matchup might favour Ottawa, based on recency. Linus Ullmark comes into this one a winner of four-straight games, sporting a .942 save percentage in those four starts. Brandon Bussi does come in with a 6-0-1 record in his last seven starts. Also, he was above a .912 save percentage three times, during that stretch. However, besides that, he has cooled off, from his great start to the campaign. In his last 12 starts, those were his only games above an .895 save percentage.
Frederik Andersen ended up getting the call for Game 1. He posted a 16-14-5 record with a 3.05 goals-against average, an .874 save percentage, with no shutouts. Like many of Canes roster, they do win out the experience edge for the playoffs.
Leevi Merilainen was also called up to the playoff roster. It is always nice having extra backup.
Leevi has been crushing it in Belleville lately. Save percentage up to .909. https://t.co/yNxZChQwan
— Graeme Nichols (@GraemeNichols) April 17, 2026
This game is going to come down to offence. The two coaches will line-match so intently that it will take a game-breaking performance to will your team to victory. For Carolina, Logan Stankoven comes in riding an eight-game point streak from the regular season. That included one goal in the game against Ottawa. He’s up to 21 goals and 23 assists on the campaign. Ottawa comes in with a balanced attack. In April, 11 players were between four and eight points. The team was 6-1-1 during that time to power their way into the post-season mix.
NHL Predictions
We will say two things. In our series preview, we did predict that Carolina wins in seven games. If Ottawa did manage to win Game 1, it might be a quicker series. So, we think Game 1 going to Carolina lends itself to the seven-game Hurricane decision. The crowd and atmosphere will be absolutely wild. Carolina plays well at home, with a league-best .732 point percentage in 2025-26. That is up against Ottawa’s 11th best road record, with a .573 P%. Therefore, we think Carolina takes Game 1, but it by no means dictates the series, it is just them holding serve.
Prediction: Carolina 4 – Ottawa 2
Prop Bets
For our classic anytime goal scorers, we like Seth Jarvis for the Canes. They play hard, and are looking to light the lamp in the opener. If that is happening, that is the right conditions for Jarvis to get in on the act. After all, he led the Canes in scoring in 2025-26. For Ottawa, we like Shane Pinto to find twine. He is such a great two-way specialist, and we expect a big playoff coming. In his last eight games, he has four goals and three assists.
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images
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