The Toronto Maple Leafs travel to face the Montreal Canadiens in a crucial matchup that could test Toronto’s resilience, especially with their star centre, Auston Matthews, sidelined. The Leafs must lean on their depth and experience, while Montreal will try to seize the moment amid their own injury struggles. Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions from Last Word On Hockey. The Maple Leafs head into this rivalry match-up with a 9-9-3 record, and the Canadiens have had a solid start to the campaign with a 10-7-3 record, despite injuries to top forwards.
NHL Predictions: Leafs and Canadiens
2025-26 Head-To-Head: Leafs 1-0 Canadiens
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
How To Watch: Sportsnet Ontario, CBC, TVAS, ESPN+
Location: The Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec
Recent Trends & Team Outlooks
Toronto comes into this game with a mixture of promise and unease. Without their captain, Matthews, the Leafs have been tested, but they’ve also shown the kind of adaptability that can carry them through tough stretches. Their secondary scoring, puck possession, and structured play remain among the league’s stronger assets. Meanwhile, Montreal is navigating a rocky patch. Their forward group has taken a blow, and their injury list is becoming a major liability. Even when they control the puck, they may lack the firepower to consistently finish against a disciplined Leafs squad.
Injury Impact & Lineup Challenges
Toronto’s injury issues are significant. Matthews is expected to miss at least a week with a lower-body injury sustained after a hit from Nikita Zadorov. The Leafs have placed him on injured reserve, temporarily removing one of their most dangerous offensive weapons. Beyond Matthews, Toronto also dealt with goaltending concerns when Anthony Stolarz exited a recent game with an upper-body injury, raising questions about their net-minding consistency.
The Canadiens’ injury picture is arguably more troubling. Kirby Dach will miss four-to-six weeks with a fractured right foot, a blow to Montreal’s middle-six forward depth. On top of that, Alex Newhook was expected to be out for roughly four months following ankle surgery. Defensively, Kaiden Guhle is sidelined with a significant issue, which could hamper Montreal’s puck-moving and transition defence. With these injured pieces, the Canadiens risk lacking balance and experience at critical moments.
Where Toronto Has the Edge
Even without Matthews, Toronto’s depth up front gives them a major advantage. Players like John Tavares or William Nylander are more than capable of stepping up and carrying the offensive load. This group can cycle effectively, win puck battles, and create high-danger opportunities, especially when facing a shorthanded Montreal team.
Defensively, the Maple Leafs have undoubtedly struggled to start the season, but as of the last couple of games against the St. Louis Blues and Columbus Blue Jackets, they have looked more connected and have been able to move the puck out of the zone during high-danger scoring opportunities.
How Montreal Might Fight Back
Montreal’s best path to success lies in maximizing its existing roster. Names like Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield will need to produce, not only creating offence but also driving momentum. The Canadiens must convert on turnover chances and generate scoring while taking advantage of any power play opportunities they get.
Goaltending will also be a major test for Montreal. Their goalie needs to be sharp, especially if Toronto’s forwards take control of the pace. If Montreal can stay disciplined defensively and lean into a fast-paced, opportunistic style, they might make this a tight game but their margin for error is slim.
Prediction & Key Bets
Maple Leafs to win this one 4–2.
Toronto’s forward depth, defensive structure, and ability to generate consistent pressure give them the upper hand. Montreal, weakened by key absences, will certainly push and create chances, but I expect Toronto to be more composed, capitalize on opportunities, and control the game enough to come away with the win.
Best Betting Angles
- Moneyline: Maple Leafs Win
- Total Goals: Over 6.0 goals, both teams can generate high offensive chances, with high-flying offences.
- Player Prop: William Nylander goal anytime
Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
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