The salary cap forecast has come out at last, and it looks very positive for the players. It will have a ripple effect on the collective bargaining agreement, but that’s for tomorrow’s NHL and NHLPA to work out.
Salary Cap Forecast Player Friendly
So much for 5%.
That, in theory, was the maximum the cap could rise in any single year when it was first negotiated. The COVID-19 pandemic threw those numbers out the window. Teams and players scrambled to figure out who should pay for what as they tried to salvage the seasons.
Compromises were reached, and a salary cap freeze was put in place for 2019-20 through 2021-22. Tiny raises of $1 million followed for the next two years before the bump to this year’s $88 million.
Advertising was increased in those years to compensate for team losses and remained in place, leading to current profits. And finally, those are being reflected in the cap increases.
The Numbers
According to the release, the increases will be 8.5% for 2025-26, 8.9% for 2026-27, and 9.1% for 2027-28.
2025-26 Salary Cap
Lower Limit: $70.6 million
Upper Limit: $95.5 million
2026-27 Salary Cap
Lower Limit: $76.9 million
Upper Limit: $104 million
2027-28 Salary Cap
Lower Limit: $83.9 million
Upper Limit: $113.5 million
Roll-On Effects of the Increased Salary Cap Forecast
While these numbers look great for players, some teams are undoubtedly going to push back. Not on the numbers themselves, but expect some form of equalization payments to be a sticking point at CBA negotiations.
Via PuckPedia, there are several teams who are above the current salary cap line with long-term injured reserve lists taken into account. At the other end of the spectrum, three teams are within $7 million of the current cap floor.
The Columbus Blue Jackets were given an exception if they needed it due to a tragic accident. The Calgary Flames and Anaheim Ducks are over $70 million each, with Anaheim barely qualifying for next season’s minimum.
Smaller teams, like those three teams, plus the newly relocated team in Utah, the Buffalo Sabres, and others will no doubt want some form of compensation in the fight for free agents. Likewise, the Canadian teams are going to be challenged to match offers when their income is in Canadian dollars.
The current CBA ends in September of 2026.
Main Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
