Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Vancouver Canucks. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Vancouver Canucks
Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: MSGSN; Sportsnet Pacific; ESPN+
This matchup features two out-of-conference opponents who are in different positions in the standings. The Islanders are treading water at fifth place in the Eastern Conference’s Metropolitan Division with a record of 6-6-4 through 16 games. While the Canucks are off to a good start near the top of the Western Conference’s Pacific Division. They have an 8-3-3 record through 14 games. This will be the first of two matchups between these teams. The first is tonight at Rogers Arena in Vancouver as the Islanders continue their West Coast trip. In their last five matchups, the Canucks are 4-1 against the Islanders including a season series sweep last season 2-0.
The Islanders Story
The Islanders started off their West Coast trip with a 4-3 overtime loss to the Edmonton Oilers. This was the second straight overtime loss, which brings them to four of those. This leads the league. The Islanders didn’t play a strong game as they were outshot 42-22 but showed their peskiness battling back from two goals down to steal a point. Despite a two-game losing streak they’ve gotten points in both games. Another positive is the offence showing life, they’ve scored three or more goals in five of the last six games. They still rank tied for 26th in goals for with 2.50 per game but they’re trending in the right direction. In particular, captain Anders Lee has really stepped up since the injury bug hit, he has three goals and five assists over the last six games.
With their offence trending in the right direction, the same cannot be said for the defence. They have allowed three or more goals in three of the last four games. Rookie defenceman Isaiah George has done his best to lighten that load with all the team’s injuries. He has come up playing second-pair minutes averaging 20:40 of ice time in four games. Despite his strong play, the injuries have put more pressure on the regulars to play more minutes than usual. As a result of this, the team’s goals against have continued to drop now ranking 16th in the league with 3.13 per game. Ilya Sorokin has kept them from falling further with his solid play. He is now 4-3-3 on the season and holds a solid 2.66 GAA and a .915 save percentage. Backup Semyon Varlamov is 2-3-1 with a 3.01 GAA and a .887 save percentage.
The Canucks Story
After a slow start to the season, the Canucks have found their form as of late. They had a 4-2-3 start, and now Vancouver has won four of their last five. Their offence ranks 14th in the NHL with 3.21 goals per game. They are led by defenceman Quinn Hughes with three goals and 13 assists. He quarterbacks their power play that ranks 14th at 20.5%. Elias Petterson has been finding his groove after a rough start, he has had back-t0-back multi-point games. They will need more from him and their other forwards as young star Brock Boeser was announced to be out indefinitely with an upper-body injury.
The Canucks defence has been a strong point for them. While they rank just 13th in goals against with 3.07 per game, other numbers suggest they’re much better than that. Their expected goals against ranks number one in the league with 23.42. The reason they have those numbers is because they do a great job at limiting their opponent’s chances. They have allowed the least amount of high-danger shots with just 18 against. They have also gotten outstanding play from goaltender Kevin Lankinen. He is 8-1-2 with a 2.46 GAA and a .911 save percentage and has done a great job filling in for the injured Thatcher Demko.
Prediction
This game has the potential to be a low-scoring game. The Islanders offence has been doing better over the last few games. However, the Canucks have been good at limiting their opponents’ chances so this might be a bad matchup for New York. Both teams have great goalies as well. The edge goes to Vancouver, the home ice advantage and their stellar defence.
Prediction: 3-2 Canucks
Prop Bet
According to Fanduel, the puck line is Islanders +1.5. We think this will be a close, one-score game so they should be able to cover that spread at -170. The over/under is set at 6.5 and with the Canucks defence and two great goalies, take the under at -140. As far as any time goal scorers, for the Islanders take Bo Horvat to score against his old team. For the Canucks take Elias Petterson who has been hot scoring in back-to-back games so take him to pot another tonight.
Main Photo Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images
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