The 2024 NHL trade deadline again offers the Tampa Bay Lightning some exciting possibilities. Over the last several seasons, Julien BriseBois has shown he is willing to bolster the roster mid-season. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow for the 2020 and 2021 Stanley Cup Playoff runs. In recent years, Tanner Jeannot and Michael Eyssimont have joined the squad. With their current position, there is a question of what the Lightning should do: buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series looking at potential trades. Let’s say they buy, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Reilly Smith of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Reilly Smith
A third-round draft pick of the Dallas Stars in 2009, Smith helped the Vegas Golden Knights capture the Stanley Cup in 2023. The 32-year-old winger has appeared in over 800 NHL games with five organizations. This past summer, Smith was dealt to the Penguins in a cap dump trade following the Golden Knights’ championship run. While Smith is injured, he has eight goals and 20 points in 40 games with Pittsburgh this season. Smith is not on pace to match his 56-point performance in Vegas last season.
The veteran winger is most comfortable on the right side, where he has played most of his minutes with Evgeni Malkin and Rickard Rakell this season. Smith has experienced a change in his role since arriving in Pittsburgh. He has a defensive zone start percentage of 4.72%, compared to 13.39% on the Golden Knights last season. Smith proved his solid two-way ability in the playoffs last season, and Mike Sullivan appears to limit his game. Now, why would the Lightning be interested in someone like Smith?
Smith Scouting Report
In previous Lightning deadline pieces, Last Word looked at Thomas Novak, Kailer Yamamoto, and Warren Foegele. We identified that all these players prefer a possession-based style and can attack off the rush. However, Smith is known for his textbook forecheck and cycle offensive abilities, but he can still provide a minor impact on the rush. The Lightning are one of the best forechecking teams in the league this season, so there is potential Smith may fit.
Smith is a skilled player with solid skating ability who can slot anywhere in the top nine forward group. He can even be used on special teams if needed. Smith is a fantastic passer; he ranks in the 68th percentile of high-danger passes per hour this season. Furthermore, he can set up one-timers in the zone. His solid defensive game offers an intriguing upside to the Bolts’ defensive system.
Smith’s Strengths
On the offensive side of the puck, Smith plays a puck possession game, similar to other trade targets we touched on. Smith ranks in the 79th percentile of point-shot set-ups per hour this season. Point-shot set-ups are a strength of the Lightning at 5v5 this season. In three recently tracked games here at Last Word, the Lightning completed 13 additional passes to the point compared to their opponents. In other words, the Lightning controls 58.23% of the point passes (58.23 PTP%).
Smith can play on the second line with Anthony Cirelli, who leads the team with eight passes to the point. His other linemate, Brandon Hagel, ranks third on the team with six completed point passes. This line prefers to dump the puck and forecheck as opposed to attack via the rush. Smith is effective with his touches in the defensive zone, a system-proof asset he has. Smith ranks in the 81st percentile of zone exits leading to retrievals per hour this season. Last season in Vegas, Smith ranked in the 99th percentile of exits with possession per 60. He can work well with helping Cirelli and Hagel attack the neutral zone as a unit.
The Concerns for Smith
While his 0.5 points per game production seems like a red flag, advanced analytics offers an alternative perspective. With Smith on the ice at 5v5, the Penguins shoot roughly four goals under expected. Smith is partly to blame for this problem as historically, his individual goals vs. expected goals difference are no greater than one. However, his linemates shoot three goals under expected. Considering Smith’s superb passing statistics, his linemates should be able to outpace their expected goals. The reason they have not is rotten luck. With a change of scenery, Smith can help boost Hagel, Cirelli, or any linemates in Tampa Bay.
What It Would (Likely) Take to Acquire Smith
Looking at previous trade deadlines, there are three comparable deadline deals. Nino Niederreiter (0.5 points per game) got traded to the Winnipeg Jets for a 2024 2nd-round pick. In 2022, Artturi Lehkonen (0.5 points per game) got traded to the Colorado Avalanche for a 2024 2nd-round pick, and Justin Barron at 50% retained. In 2020, Coleman (0.54 points per game) joined the Lightning for a 2020 first-round pick and prospect Nolan Foote.
Smith has averaged 0.50 points per game this season, which ranks tied second amongst the listed players above. A trend that these three players have in common is their sound two-way game. The price of the trade may seem high, but one must understand the context behind the deal. Smith has a cap hit of $5 million per season through the 2024-25 season, so acquiring him will solidify him in the organization for two seasons.
Lightning acquire: Reilly Smith (F) – 50% retained
Penguins acquire: Alex Barre-Boulet (F), Conor Sheary (F), cond. 2026 1st-round pick
Furthermore, Pittsburgh must retain 50% of his cap hit to make the money work. Smith’s services at a cap hit of $2.5 million for two seasons are valuable for Tampa Bay. The Penguins may be interested in a reunion with Conor Sheary, who fits Sullivan’s system like a glove. Furthermore, Alex Barre-Boulet has an offensive spark that can boost a youth movement in Pittsburgh. While the first-round pick seems like a hefty price tag, the pick has a condition attached. If the Lightning misses the playoffs in the 2023-24 season or the 2024-25 season, the first turns into a 2026-second round pick.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In or Out on Smith
The Lightning must find weapons to boost the scoring depth heading into the second half of the season. The top line featuring Nikita Kucherov has done all the heavy lifting for the Lightning offensively. This distribution of scoring throughout the roster is not sustainable in the playoffs. The Lightning needs to rely on multiple forward lines to provide offence. In addition, Smith can help improve the Lightning’s defensive zone structure.
The Lightning consistently finds players on cheap, multi-year deals at the trade deadline. Coleman and Hagel are two solid two-way players with cost-efficient deals that helped bolster the middle six. While Smith is 32 years old, his impact is difficult to ignore. Moreover, he has experienced regression in his point production due to his poor fit in Pittsburgh. With all that being said, will they look his way?
Microstats via LastWordOnSports (Jack Pallotta and Kyle Pereira)
Advanced percentiles via AllThreeZones (paid subscription required)
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & EvolvingHockey
Main Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
