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The 2023 NHL draft class is a loaded one. From the top with Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, it is arguably one of the best classes in recent memory. One of the top defenders hails from Sweden, and that is Axel Sandin-Pellikka.
Axel Sandin Pellikka Scouting Report
Right Defence — shoots Right
Born Mar 11 2005 – Gallivare, Sweden
Height 5’11” — Weight 176 lbs [180 cm/80 kg]
Background
Sandin Pellikka, born March 11th, 2005, in Gallivare, Sweden, is a right shot defenceman. He stands at 5’11” and 181 pounds, which is a slightly smaller frame than most defenders, though not necessarily undersized. He has spent a majority of his season playing in the J20 SuperElit league with Skelleftea. In 31 J20 games, he scored 16 goals and 20 assists for 36 points, a strong statline for a defender. Additionally, he played 22 games in the SHL, with two goals and three assists for five points.
With the season he has had, he has been ranked between 10th and 18th by various sites and experts. More specifically, he was ranked 10th by DailyFaceoff and Craig Button, 11th by Smaht Scouting, 12th by FCHockey, Dobber Prospects and Draft Prospects Hockey, 13th by The Hockey News, 14th by Elite Prospects, 15th by SportsNet, 17th by Bob McKenzie and McKeen’s Hockey, and 18th by Recruit Scouting.
Axel Sandin Pellikka Deep Dive
Pellikka has been pretty much thrown into the 10 to 20 range pretty consistently across the board. There’s very little in the form of disagreement between scouts in regards to where Pellikka is projected. So, what makes him so good? What has all scouts calling for him to be taken in the top-20?
Sandin Pellikka’s Skating
Sandin Pellikka’s skating is a thing of beauty. His stride is technically sound. His straight-line speed is excellent. When it comes to his first few steps, or acceleration, he is explosive. As for his edges, he generates a lot of speed through his crossovers, can stop on a dime, and transitions from forwards to backwards skating near-flawlessly. His four-way mobility is evident and at a high level. Sam Cosentino of SportsNet said, “Excellent skater with lateral mobility and edge work that make [Sandin Pellikka] effective at both ends of the ice.”
Offensive Abilities
Sandin Pellikka is active in the offensive zone. He is more than willing and able to move his feet in the offensive zone. He can set himself up in pockets of space for teammates to find him when the time calls for it, and has the skating ability to get back if the play goes sideways. His passing skills are also extremely high level. Sandin Pellikka pairs his elite skating with his high-end vision and IQ to create space for himself and buy time for his teammates to get open, then finding them in high-danger spots. As a matter of fact, Tony Ferrari even made the claim that, “He may be the best passer of any defenseman in this draft.”
As for his shot, it’s not the biggest strength of his game, but it’s certainly not a weakness. His skating allows him to create space for himself, as mentioned, and that opens up shooting lanes for him to exploit. And he can, from time to time, take advantage of those opportunities. Overall, his offensive game is very well-rounded, but also really aggressive and fast-paced. Take that as you will, he is still super impressive.
Shooting Ability
Just how effective of a shooter is Sandin Pellikka? Well, among defence prospects who played in European leagues since 2017, he ranks sixth on Lassi Alanen and Mitch Brown’s shot contribution chart. In 10 games tracked by Alanen and Brown, Sandin Pellikka ranks sixth amongst those aforementioned defenders. He averaged 11.86 shots per 60 minutes and 6.101 shot assists per 60 minutes, which is mighty impressive.
Again, looking at this chart, he ranks behind three players in this class, all of which play in a more offensively driven league in the MHL. Additionally, he is behind young phenom Aron Kiviharju and Rasmus Dahlin’s superb 2017-18 season, where he would get drafted first overall.
Playmaking Ability
Transitioning to arguably Sandin Pellikka’s biggest strength, his playmaking, where does he rank? Looking at Alanen and Brown’s “Passer Rating” stat, he ranks seventh. Passer rating is a passing stat that takes into account the value of a pass, the difficulty of the attempt and the eventual result of the pass. Once again, he is ranked behind three players in this draft class: David Reinbacher, Mikhail Gulyayev, and Albert Wikman. He’s also behind Kiviharju and Dahlin’s ‘17-’18 season again. The other player he is behind is Simon Edvinsson, who is miles ahead of everyone, thanks to his 2020-21 performance.
With a passer rating of 0.531, Sandin Pellikka grades out very well. But something that can’t be weighted into this is just how effective his skating ability is, which opens up the opportunities he creates with his passing. As he improves as a skater, his playmaking will only get better. Add to that fact that his shot also should improve over time, and the potential here is limitless. Most scouts already see this, and that’s what puts Sandin Pellikka’s offensive ceiling higher than most in this class.
Axel Sandin Pellikka’s Transitional Abilities
As for transitioning the puck up ice, he leaves some to be desired. With the skating, vision, fast-pace style, and passing abilities in the offensive zone, the expectations were high for Sandin Pellikka for this writer, at least with his transitional stats. In one tracked game by this writer, Sandin Pellikka had a 60% controlled zone exit percentage on five attempts at even-strength. Additionally, he had no controlled entries on three attempts, all of which were dump-ins. That was an SHL game, however, and it was fairly early in the year. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, let’s check what Alanen and Brown tracked at the J20 level.
Diving Deeper Into The Transitional Numbers
In 10 tracked games by Alanen and Brown, Sandin Pellikka had a controlled exit rate of 95.83%, meaning across 10 games he exited the defensive zone with control on 95.83% of attempts he was involved in. As for entries, he recorded a controlled entry rate of 84.21%. So, while he left some to be desired, at least in one tracked game at the SHL level, it’s clear he possesses excellent skills moving the puck up ice. It may take him some time to translate that effective style to the NHL, adjusting to the pace and smaller rinks, but he has the raw tools to thrive as a puck-mover.
Sandin Pellikka’s Defensive Zone Play
Defensively, Sandin Pellikka is interesting. When it comes to defending the rush, he is quite effective. His gap control is consistently solid, and he forces a lot of dump-ins. To build off of that, his skating allows him to win races to those dump-ins, effectively canceling out play. But once the opposition enters the zone and establishes possession, some issues can arise. Sandin Pellikka is aggressive, that’s just his style, but he can get drawn out of position at times because of that style.
While he isn’t a liability, he doesn’t exactly defend very well against the cycle. Again, he can get drawn out of position, and he doesn’t possess the stick work to break up plays, nor the physicality to win puck battles consistently. But, if there is a loose puck, he is quick to retrieve it, and can get play moving in the other direction. Sometimes, offence is the best defence, and Sandin Pellikka embodies that mindset.
Axel Sandin Pellikka’s Potential
Sandin Pellikka is still pretty raw, at this stage. He is not pro ready at this point. He may need a year or two in the SHL before he will be. But, as many scouts have said in the past, it’s not about drafting who the player is now, it’s about who the player will be. Sandin Pellikka has the ceiling and the translatable skills to be arguably the best defender out of this class. His skating, fast-paced style, multi-faceted offensive abilities, strong rush defending, raw but effective puck-moving skills, and overall high hockey IQ all paint a really good picture for him. If everything works out, he could be a future number one defender. It’s not a massive risk, per se, but he’ll need time and patience. Which team will be willing to give it?
NHL Comparison
Based on style only, and not a future outlook, Sandin Pellikka’s aggressive style has been compared to Tyson Barrie by one scout. However, this writer is reminded a lot of Rasmus Dahlin, though not as creative or nifty with the puck. Also, Erik Karlsson’s offensively-oriented style comes to mind when watching Sandin Pellikka. But again, the question is if he can fine-tune those skills to be able to unlock the full potential behind them. That is easier said than done.
Highlights
Tracked Stats from Lassi Alanen and Mitch Brown
Transitional Data via Alanen and Brown, and Kyle Pereira (when specified)
Raw stats via Elite Prospects
Main Photo: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
