Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, the Colorado Avalanche attempt to keep their season alive after falling into a 3-0 series deficit against the Vegas Golden Knights. Colorado appeared poised to get back into the series on Sunday before surrendering a three-goal lead in a crushing Game 3 defeat. Meanwhile, Vegas is one win away from its third Stanley Cup Final appearance in franchise history.
NHL Predictions: Colorado Avalanche vs Vegas Golden Knights Game 4
Series: Vegas leads 3-0
Time: 9:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: ESPN, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SN, SN+, CBC, TVAS
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Setting the Stage
Credit Image: © David Becker/ZUMA Press Wire
Game 3 may ultimately define this series. Colorado raced out to a 3-0 lead in the first period behind goals from Gabriel Landeskog, Nazem Kadri, and Jack Drury. However, Vegas responded with five unanswered goals, including Tomas Hertl‘s game-winner midway through the third period, to complete the largest comeback win in franchise playoff history.
Vegas goal!Scored by Tomas Hertl with 11:39 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Mark Stone and Kaedan Korczak.Vegas: 4Colorado: 3#COLvsVGK #ForgedInGold #GoAvsGo
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-25T02:51:36.326996Z
Now the Avalanche face the most difficult challenge in hockey. Only four teams in NHL history have overcome a 3-0 series deficit, and no team has ever done so in the Conference Final round.
Colorado Avalanche Storylines
The biggest storyline entering Game 4 is Nathan MacKinnon‘s health. Colorado’s superstar blocked a Shea Theodore shot off his right leg in Game 3 and is officially uncertain for Tuesday night. MacKinnon returned to finish the game, recording an assist and five shots on goal, but clearly laboured through the third period.
Meanwhile, Cale Makar returned after missing the first two games of the series and immediately improved Colorado’s transition game. The Norris Trophy finalist logged a game-high 27:14 and helped spark the Avalanche’s explosive first period. Unfortunately for Colorado, Makar’s return could not prevent another Vegas comeback.
Despite trailing 3-0, Colorado continues to believe it has played well enough to win. Jared Bednar and several players have pointed to small mistakes and missed opportunities rather than a talent gap between the clubs.
Short-handed goal for Colorado!Scored by Jack Drury with 06:45 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Parker Kelly and Devon Toews.Vegas: 0Colorado: 3#COLvsVGK #ForgedInGold #GoAvsGo
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-25T00:54:58.404169Z
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
Vegas continues proving that playoff hockey often comes down to execution in key moments. The Golden Knights have now won five consecutive playoff games and have captured all three games in this series despite being outplayed for stretches.
Mark Stone‘s return immediately changed the complexion of the lineup. After missing five games with a lower-body injury, the captain recorded a goal and an assist in Game 3 and helped ignite the comeback.
Meanwhile, Mitch Marner continues building a Conn Smythe Trophy case. The Vegas winger leads all playoff scorers with 21 points and recorded two more assists in Game 3. Jack Eichel remains right behind him, while Carter Hart has quietly become one of the postseason’s most valuable players with another strong performance in net.
NHL Predictions and The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
Interestingly, the models remain remarkably split despite the 3-0 series score. MoneyPuck gives Colorado a slight edge at 50.2 percent, while HockeyStats leans toward Vegas at 52 percent. The betting market has also shifted significantly toward the Golden Knights after Game 3.
The models still see two evenly matched teams. However, Vegas has consistently won the leverage moments throughout the series, and that matters when evaluating a potential elimination game.
NHL Prediction
Colorado should bring desperation and urgency. The Avalanche have too much talent to quit, and Makar’s return gives them a much higher ceiling than they showed in the first two games.
However, Vegas continues finding answers regardless of game state. The Golden Knights erased a three-goal deficit on Sunday, have their captain back in the lineup, and possess the hotter goaltender. Until Colorado proves it can close out one of these games, the safer side remains Vegas.
Prediction: Golden Knights win 3-2 (Model Probability: Vegas 52%)
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction Record: 9-6
Prop Bets of the Night
Jack Eichel over 0.5 assists (-160) remains attractive despite not recording one in Game 3. The Vegas centre still has 15 assists in 15 playoff games and continues driving offence at an elite level.
Nathan MacKinnon over 3.5 shots on goal (-115) is worth consideration if he is confirmed healthy enough to play. He cleared the number in Game 3 despite suffering the leg injury and should be heavily involved with Colorado facing elimination.
Finally, Mitch Marner to record two or more points (+165) stands out. The playoff scoring leader has produced in every round and continues creating chances alongside Eichel and Stone.
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Record: 21-19 (+0.96 units)
All line combinations and starting goaltenders are subject to change prior to puck drop.
Main Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
