Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, the Colorado Avalanche face their biggest test of the season as they head to Las Vegas trailing the Western Conference Final 2-0. The Avalanche have played well enough to win stretches of both games, but the Golden Knights continue capitalizing on mistakes and finding goals in the biggest moments.
NHL Predictions: Colorado Avalanche vs Vegas Golden Knights Game 3
Series: Vegas lead 2-0
Time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 5:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: ESPN, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SN, SN+, CBC, TVAS
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Setting the Stage
Credit Image: © Spencer Lee/ZUMA Press Wire
The first two games of this series have been much closer than the results suggest. Colorado carried play for long stretches in both contests, yet Vegas leaves Denver with a 2-0 series lead. Anaheim Ducks’ fans may recognize the pattern.
The Golden Knights won Game 1 by a 4-2 score before rallying from a third-period deficit in Game 2. Colorado entered Friday’s game with a 45-0 record when leading after two periods during the regular season and playoffs combined. Vegas erased that advantage with three third-period goals to complete another comeback.
Meanwhile, the pressure now belongs entirely to the Avalanche. Another loss would place the Presidents’ Trophy winners on the brink of elimination.
Colorado Avalanche Storylines
Everything still revolves around Cale Makar. The star defenceman missed both games in Denver and remains day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Colorado has generated chances without him, but the Avalanche have clearly missed his ability to drive transition, quarterback the power play, and create offence from the back end.
However, Colorado is hardly panicking. Jared Bednar believes his team has another level to reach and pointed to several correctable mistakes that have fuelled Vegas’ transition game. The Avalanche continue to believe they can turn the series despite the 2-0 deficit.
Nathan MacKinnon also remains the player capable of changing everything. The Avalanche superstar has been held without a goal in the series, but his ability to take over games remains unmatched.
Colorado goal!Scored by Ross Colton with 03:01 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Brent Burns and Nazem Kadri.Colorado: 1Vegas: 0#VGKvsCOL #GoAvsGo #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-23T00:59:57.335853Z
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
Jack Eichel continues making a strong Conn Smythe Trophy case. The Vegas centre scored the tying goal and assisted on Ivan Barbashev‘s game-winner in Game 2. He now has 18 points in 14 playoff games and has played a major role in limiting Nathan MacKinnon’s impact through the first two games. Coach John Tortorella recently called Eichel the best 200-foot player in hockey, and the results are supporting that claim.
Vegas goal!Scored by Ivan Barbashev with 08:38 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev.Colorado: 1Vegas: 2#VGKvsCOL #GoAvsGo #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-23T02:40:58.150746Z
Meanwhile, Carter Hart has become one of the defining stories of the postseason. Hart owns a .924 save percentage through 14 playoff appearances and has consistently delivered key saves when Vegas needs them most.
Furthermore, the Golden Knights continue receiving contributions throughout the lineup. Barbashev scored twice in Game 2, Pavel Dorofeyev added two assists, and Vegas recorded its fourth third-period comeback win of the playoffs.
NHL Predictions and The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
Interestingly, the models still see a very competitive series despite Vegas winning the first two games. MoneyPuck gives Colorado a 53.2 percent chance to win Game 3, while HockeyStats projects the Avalanche at 51 percent. The betting market similarly views this matchup as nearly even.
The underlying numbers suggest Colorado has played better than a typical team trailing 2-0. However, Vegas continues proving that playoff hockey is often decided by execution in critical moments rather than territorial dominance alone.
NHL Prediction
Colorado desperately needs its best game of the series, and this feels like the spot where the Avalanche finally break through. The Golden Knights have won six straight playoff games and have repeatedly found answers in high-pressure situations. However, Colorado has carried enough play through two games to suggest a breakthrough is coming.
Expect a desperate effort from the Presidents’ Trophy winners and a much more aggressive push from MacKinnon and the Avalanche top six.
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche win 3-2 (Model Probability: Colorado 52%)
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction Record: 9-5
Prop Bets of the Night
Jack Eichel over 0.5 assists (-135) remains difficult to ignore. The Vegas star now has 16 assists in 14 playoff games and continues creating offence regardless of game state. As long as sportsbooks continue offering reasonable prices, it remains one of the most attractive props in the series.
Meanwhile, Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots on goal (+130) stands out as a bounce-back candidate. He managed only one shot in Game 2, but Colorado’s season effectively hangs in the balance. Expect the Avalanche captain to be heavily involved from the opening shift.
For a higher-upside play, Ivan Barbashev to record a point (+115) deserves consideration after his three-point performance in Game 2. The winger continues finding chemistry alongside Eichel and has become an increasingly important piece of Vegas’ offence.
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Record: 20-17 (+1.66 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change before puck drop. Check official team channels for the latest updates.
Main Photo Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images
