Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, the Colorado Avalanche look to avoid falling into a 2-0 series hole after the Vegas Golden Knights stole home ice with a 4-2 victory in Game 1. The Avalanche entered the series as favourites and remain so entering Friday night, but Vegas continues finding ways to win regardless of injuries, venue, or circumstance.
NHL Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche Game 2
Series: Vegas leads 1-0
Time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:00 p.m. Mountain Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: ESPN | Canada TV: SN, SN+, CBC, TVAS
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado
Setting the Stage
Game 1 was a reminder that playoff experience still matters. Vegas received goals from Dylan Coghlan, Pavel Dorofeyev, Brett Howden, and Nic Dowd while Carter Hart stopped 36 shots in a 4-2 victory. Colorado pushed late, cutting the deficit to one in the third period, but never fully recovered from a sluggish middle frame. Meanwhile, the Avalanche now face the reality that another home loss would send them to Las Vegas trailing 2-0.
Furthermore, injuries remain a major storyline. Cale Makar missed Game 1 with an undisclosed injury, and his status remains uncertain entering Friday. Colorado can survive without many players. Makar is not one of them.
Vegas Golden Knights Storylines
The Golden Knights continue proving they are far more than a top-heavy roster. Marner still leads all playoff scorers with 19 points, while Eichel has 16 points and 15 assists. However, Vegas keeps winning because different players continue stepping forward. Dorofeyev scored his playoff-leading 10th goal in Game 1, Howden scored again, and Coghlan delivered his first career playoff goal.
Meanwhile, Hart may be the most important player in the series through one game. The Vegas netminder owns a .920 save percentage this postseason and was the biggest reason the Golden Knights survived Colorado’s third-period push. Vegas has now won six of its last seven playoff games and appears increasingly comfortable in difficult road environments.
Power play goal for Vegas!Scored by Pavel Dorofeyev with 04:58 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Mitch Marner and Tomas Hertl.Colorado: 0Vegas: 2#VGKvsCOL #GoAvsGo #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T01:52:59.688974Z
Colorado Avalanche Storylines
Colorado’s biggest storyline remains Makar’s health. The Norris Trophy finalist missed Game 1, and the effects were visible throughout the lineup. The Avalanche struggled moving the puck cleanly through the neutral zone, and several players were forced into larger roles. Nathan MacKinnon called the team’s execution poor after the loss, while Jared Bednar pointed directly to the absence of Makar’s strengths as part of the problem.
. (Credit Image: © Dirk Shadd/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire)
However, there were positives. MacKinnon still recorded an assist, Landeskog scored, and Colorado generated 38 shots on goal. The Avalanche were hardly overwhelmed. Instead, they spent too much of the night chasing mistakes they created themselves. If Colorado can clean up its puck management and receive even average special teams play, the outlook changes quickly.
Power play goal for Colorado!Scored by Gabriel Landeskog with 02:21 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Nathan MacKinnon and Devon Toews.Colorado: 2Vegas: 3#VGKvsCOL #GoAvsGo #ForgedInGold
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T02:56:02.026746Z
NHL Predictions and The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
MoneyPuck gives Colorado a 60.1 percent chance to win Game 2, while HockeyStats projects the Avalanche at 57 percent. Market odds also continue favouring Colorado heavily despite the Game 1 loss. The models largely view Wednesday’s result as a single road win rather than evidence Vegas is the superior team.
Furthermore, Colorado still owns the stronger season-long profile, home ice, and the urgency that naturally accompanies a Game 2 after dropping the opener. Vegas deserves enormous respect, but the underlying projections continue siding with the Avalanche.
NHL Prediction
Colorado was not at its best in Game 1 and still generated enough chances to make things uncomfortable late. Furthermore, teams of this calibre rarely deliver consecutive flat performances in a conference final. MacKinnon remains the most dangerous player in the series, and the Avalanche should play with far greater urgency knowing what is at stake.
Vegas has consistently answered every challenge throughout the postseason. However, Colorado’s talent, depth, and desperation ultimately help the Avalanche avoid a disastrous start to the series.
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche win 4-2 (Model Probability: Colorado 59%)
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Prediction Record: 9-4
Prop Bets of the Night
Jack Eichel over 0.5 assists (-135) remains difficult to ignore. The Vegas centre has 15 assists in 13 playoff games and continues creating offence even when he is not finding the scoresheet himself. Until the market fully adjusts, there is value in backing one of the postseason’s best playmakers.
Meanwhile, Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots on goal (+125) stands out for Colorado. The Avalanche captain saw his six-game goal streak end in Game 1 and should be heavily involved from the opening faceoff. Expect Colorado to funnel offence through its superstar as it searches for a series-evening victory.
For a higher-risk option, Pavel Dorofeyev anytime goal (+205) continues to warrant consideration. His playoff-leading 10 goals and four-game goal streak make him one of the hottest finishers remaining in the postseason.
2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Record: 19-15 (+2.92 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change before puck drop. Be sure to check official team websites for the latest roster news.
Main Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
