Welcome back to NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey take a look at the slate of games and predict the outcome. This and other series can be found in the NHL Predictions section. In this edition of Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions, we shift to Game 4 of this first-round Western Conference matchup as the Anaheim Ducks host the Edmonton Oilers with Anaheim now holding a 2-1 series lead.
Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions: Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks Game 4
Series: Anaheim leads 2-1
Time: 9:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time | 6:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time
How to Watch – US TV: ESPN, ESPN+, Victory+ | Canada TV: CBC, SN, TVAS2, SN+
Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks enter Game 4 with control of the series after taking a 2-1 lead at home. Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers now face mounting pressure as they look to avoid falling into a 3-1 deficit.
Credit Image: © Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald via ZUMA Press Wire
However, the story of this series has shifted from expectation to execution. Anaheim has consistently dictated pace, generated offence from multiple sources, and capitalized on key moments. Conversely, Edmonton has struggled to translate strong underlying play into consistent results.
Ultimately, Game 4 represents a critical turning point. The Ducks have an opportunity to seize full control, while the Oilers must respond to reassert themselves in the series.
Edmonton Oilers Storylines
Edmonton enters Game 4 still searching for a complete performance. The Oilers continue to generate opportunities at five-on-five, but their finishing and special teams execution have lagged behind expectations.
Most notably, Connor McDavid finally broke through in Game 3 after being held off the scoresheet in the opening two games. While that positive linear regression was expected, his overall impact has yet to fully tilt the series in Edmonton’s favour.
Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl has remained a consistent offensive driver, producing at an elite rate through three games. His presence continues to stabilize the Oilers’ attack, particularly in high-leverage situations.
Additionally, Edmonton’s power play remains a major question. Despite being one of the league’s best units during the regular season, it has yet to consistently capitalize in this series. If that unit finds its rhythm, it could quickly change the complexion of the matchup.
Edmonton goal!Scored by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with 14:21 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid.Anaheim: 2Edmonton: 3#EDMvsANA #FlyTogether #LetsGoOilers
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-25T03:29:00.491079Z
Anaheim Ducks Storylines
The Ducks enter Game 4 with growing confidence and a clearly defined identity. Anaheim has consistently generated offence through depth scoring, with contributions spread across multiple lines.
Meanwhile, Leo Carlsson continues to stand out as a central driver. His shot generation remains a constant, providing Anaheim with sustained offensive pressure. At this point, his volume has become one of the most reliable elements of the series.
Anaheim goal!Scored by Leo Carlsson with 16:25 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Troy Terry.Anaheim: 5Edmonton: 3#EDMvsANA #FlyTogether #LetsGoOilers
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-25T04:31:40.011853Z
Additionally, Troy Terry has maintained a strong offensive presence, while Cutter Gauthier continues to emerge as a dangerous scoring threat. Together, this group has created a multi-layered attack that has been difficult for Edmonton to contain.
Furthermore, Anaheim’s success has been closely tied to special teams. The Ducks have converted at a high rate on the power play while limiting Edmonton’s opportunities, creating a significant edge through three games.
The Model
The blended model incorporates projections from the in-house model, MoneyPuck, HockeyStats, and market odds with vig removed. Each component is weighted evenly to generate a final probability and corresponding fair odds.
The in-house model continues to lean toward Edmonton based on stronger finishing metrics and long-term special teams performance. Meanwhile, MoneyPuck projects the Oilers at approximately 53 percent for Game 4.
HockeyStats aligns with a slightly stronger Edmonton edge, placing the Oilers closer to 56 percent while projecting a modest scoring advantage.
After removing market vig from the -135 range and blending all inputs, Edmonton lands between 53 and 56 percent. Fair odds project closer to -120, indicating a narrow but consistent edge.
Ultimately, the model suggests Edmonton remains the favourite on paper, but the gap continues to tighten as the series progresses.
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction
Game 4 presents a familiar tension between projection and performance. Edmonton continues to carry the stronger underlying profile, but Anaheim has consistently executed the more effective game plan.
However, Anaheim’s advantage in depth scoring and special teams remains difficult to ignore. The Ducks have demonstrated a repeatable formula, and their ability to dictate pace at home further reinforces their position. They also have the momentum heading into this one.
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks win 4-3 (Model Probability: ~45%)
Stanley Cup Playoff Prediction Record: 2-1
Prop Bets of the Night
Leo Carlsson over 3.5 shots (+115) remains a staple in this series. Even after consistently clearing the number, his role and volume continue to justify the play. At this point, the line has yet to fully adjust to his usage.
Meanwhile, Connor McDavid to record two points or more (-120) remains a strong option. After breaking through in Game 3, his involvement should continue given his ice time and offensive deployment.
Additionally, Leon Draisaitl to record at least two points (+120) offers strong value. His production has been consistent throughout the series, and his role on the top power play ensures continued opportunity.
Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Record: 6-3 (+1.23 units)
All line combinations and goaltenders are subject to change. Always check team reports prior to puck drop.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Please bet responsibly.
Main photo: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
