Welcome to a Saturday afternoon edition of NHL Predictions with us here at Last Word On Hockey, as the Ottawa Senators begin a two-game tour of Florida, with a game against the Tampa Bay Lightning. As we do all season, join us for storylines, statistics, and analysis, as we break down who we think might prevail. So check out our look at the Sens and Lightning, with lots of jockeying for Stanley Cup Playoff positions on the line.
NHL Predictions with Senators and Lightning
Season Series: Sens won 5-4 in October, and the two teams’ third and final meeting is scheduled for April 7th.
Puck Drop: 1:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to Watch: TSN5, TVAS, The Spot
Location: The beautiful Benchmark International Arena, live from Tampa, Florida.
Ottawa comes into this one following a tough shootout loss at home to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday night. Moreover, the Eastern Conference Stanley Cup Playoff Wild Card race remains ultra-competitive. After play on Wednesday evening, Ottawa had found themselves in that second Wild Card position. However, the loss knocked them back out of a playoff spot. Ottawa is currently among six teams within two points of one another, after the Detroit Red Wings beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2 last night. Fortunately, for the respective teams’ playoff hopes, that includes two spots within the Metropolitan Division’s top three. Therefore, of those six teams, there are technically four spots up for grabs. Regardless, these are vital points for the Senators, who have 10 games left if we count this one.
Credit Image: © David Kirouac/Cal Sport Media
Meanwhile, Tampa has separated themselves from the pack. They have 94 points, as they enter play second in the Atlantic Division.
Recent Storylines Out of the Canadian National Capital City
Some good news for Ottawa is that star defenceman Jake Sanderson joins the team on this trip. Their blueline had been beat up with injuries of late, and they desperately need his return. It was announced Thomas Chabot will be out at minimum a month, following surgery on his arm. They were already without Nick Jensen. In addition, a few of their replacements had hit the infirmary. Lassi Thomson and Dennis Gilbert had both been injured recently, as well. That had prompted call-ups for NHL debuts of Carter Yakemchuk and Jorian Donovan this past week. It is likely at least one of them suits up today.
There are some fortunate notes for the Sens. Their forward group is seemingly pretty healthy. With the depth the group possesses as a whole, even against a tough opponent like Tampa, they handle the matchup game quite well. This is why the Sens have been rated very strongly in 5v5 metrics all season long. Interestingly enough, according to MoneyPuck.com‘s team 5v5 expected goal percentage, these two teams are similar. Ottawa is third at 55.8%, and Tampa is right there in fourth at 54.3%. Conversely, if we look at their respective actual goal percentages, Tampa is second at 57%, and Ottawa dips to 11th at 52.8%. Having the actual above expected, is a sign of offensive efficiency. It can be seen as a differentiator in the two teams’ season, thus far.
- Shots for: OTT 29.0 (ninth) | TBL 28.3 (15th)
- Shots against: OTT 24.2 (second) | TBL 26.8 (ninth)
The Goalie Matchup
Furthermore, for the Sens, their high-paid backstopper has been playing up to expectations. We do think Linus Ullmark gets the call. Overall on the season he is a very respectable 23-10-8, with two shutouts. His save percentage is .888, and he has a 2.75 goals-against average. However, since returning from his leave of absence, he has been better. His record in that time is 9-2-3, and in seven games had a save percentage of .913 or better, including one shutout. Prior to that, he had only been above that mark eight times.
While we are discussing goalies, it looks like Andrei Vasilevskiy draws in for Tampa. His success and the team’s success go hand and hand, and that’s pretty well throughout his career. He leads the NHL in wins with 34, and has a 2.33 goals-against average, with a .911 save percentage, along with two shutouts.
However, it is a great time for our disclaimer. Please check social media prior to puck drop, to see definitely who gets the nod, before setting your fantasy roster for the day.
What’s the Year Been Like in Tampa?
In terms of Tampa’s overall team health, they are in pretty good shape right now. They have had key players miss time this year, like Brayden Point, Nick Paul, and Erik Cernak, but now, they are relatively healthy. In contrast, Victor Hedman is currently on a leave of absence from the club. Although outside of Hedman, as of now, they aren’t missing any big names.
For Tampa, they have found their groove in 2025-26. The groove that had helped them win back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships. They have lost in the first round of the playoffs in each of the past three seasons. This year, it is very possibly they got themselves over the hump.
Nikita Kucherov has been playing at an all-world pace. In fact, his 2025-26 campaign is shaping up to be an all-time performance for scoring greatness among wingers. You know, right up there with the greats like Jaromir Jagr, Jari Kurri, and Mike Bossy. When Kucherov hit 65 games this year, he had tied Kurri for the third-most points ever by a winger at that point (119). They both trailed Bossy (122) and Jagr (128). On the season, he is tied for the league lead in points (121 with Connor McDavid), and leads outright with 81 assists.
On an amazing surge that's seen him take over the NHL scoring lead, Nikita Kucherov enters tonight's @TBLightning game vs the Kraken having posted 120 this season overall. Notching 104 of those in his last 50 outings, he has the highest total in such a span on this list of… pic.twitter.com/G8mts4e2Kq
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) March 26, 2026
One key differentiator for Tampa this year, has been the emergence of players on the blueline. Darren Raddysh has been playing like a top-four blueliner. It will be something to watch in the offseason, as team’s will be vying for his services when he hits free agency. J.J. Moser is another guy who has stepped up.
We have even seen star Victor Hedman return to the form. He was a huge part of the Lightning success during their championship seasons. This season he has been able to raise his level of play, and it has helped Tampa’s bottom line. Even though he is only up to 33 games this year, and looks to miss some time.
One more note on Tampa, is on their great head coach Jon Cooper. Cooper is the longest tenured head coach in the NHL, followed by Jared Bednar in Colorado. This is Cooper’s 14th season as bench boss in Tampa. That string has seen four trips to the final. Additionally, he has only failed to make the postseason in one full season as their coach. The longevity and success will go down as one of the greatest stretches of coaching, especially in the more modern era, although all-time, as well.
Cooper’s ability even recently drew the attention of Edmonton Oiler superstar Connor McDavid. McDavid was complimentary of his coaching abilities and the impact it has had on the Lightning over the years. It even became a point of contention recently in Oil Country, as McDavid had to clarify whether or not it was aimed as a knock against his own head coach Kris Knoblauch.
In any case, head coach Travis Green and company will have their work cut out for them.
NHL Predictions
After the loss last time out, we think Ottawa brings the urgency. They beat Tampa already this year, and Ullmark is playing hot.
Prediction: Ottawa 4 – Tampa 1
Prop Bets
For our classic anytime goal scorers, we are going down the charts a bit. If Ottawa does get up to four, they will need a group effort. We think Michael Amadio is one of the lucky recipients and finds his way onto the score sheet, by way of the goal column. For Tampa, Jake Guentzel is hot with six goals in his last eight, look for him to fill the net.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
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