It is that time of year, the verbal equinox is upon us, let’s go, springtime hockey is almost here. Welcome to the Battle of Ontario, as we at Last Word On Hockey bring you a Saturday edition of NHL Predictions, featuring the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators. And it is interesting to think that the hard-nosed, passionate Stanley Cup Playoff style of hockey has already begun. Ottawa cannot afford to give points away. Find out our thoughts with analysis, statistics, and key storylines as we do our best to guess the outcome, next.
NHL Predictions, with Maple Leafs and Senators
Season Series: This is the third of four meetings, with another game scheduled for Ottawa in mid-April. Toronto won 7-5, and then Ottawa downed them 5-2, in the two games in Toronto so far in 2025-26.
Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to Watch: SN, CBC, TVAS2
Location: The Spectacular Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata, Ontario.
Credit Image: © Daniel Lea/Cal Sport Media
Even though these two teams are in much different situations, the Sens cannot take the Leafs lightly. Ottawa enters play battling for their Stanley Cup Playoff lives. In contrast, the Leafs have shifted priorities after a disappointing season. They have an outside chance at an NHL Draft Lottery win, at this point (MoneyPuck has them at 6.7% for the first pick, exactly, that is the seventh highest precentage). However, Ottawa needs to be weary to not take Toronto lightly. Both sides always gets up for this classic rivalry. Plus, chaos and calamity, like Toronto’s season, is a great recipe to counteract the staunch defensive structure that head coach Travis Green has his team playing.
Ottawa needs to figure out how to maximize their results. Many of their analytic metrics have been superior this season (expected goal percentage at 5v5 is 53.35%), yet, they haven’t always seen it show up in the win column. They tend to have problems finishing offensively. And they have been prone to suspect goaltending throughout the campaign.
Toronto has a team save percentage of .894, while Ottawa’s sits at .872. In terms of goals-for, Ottawa is ninth with 3.32 goals-per-60-minutes, opposed to Toronto at 16th at 3.12. Furthermore, Ottawa comes in on a 12-3-2 stretch. So, they have playing well for a long time.
https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm
Statistically, the Senators Should Have the Edge Over the Leafs
Even on this great run of goaltending since late January they have had, they don’t have a great save percentage. With great overall shot suppression, it can cause the goalie to get out of rhythm within games. Or having a lot of puck control, lets the opposition sit back, and wait to counter on transition off turnovers. These are the type of things that have burned the Sens this year. Ottawa is ninth in most shots-for at 28.8, and amazingly first in shots-allowed with 24.2. Conversely, Toronto is 22nd with 27.3 in shots for, and 32nd at 32.2, in terms of most shots-allowed-per-game.
So the key for the Sens is to stick with it, and to keep building offensive confidence, up and down the lineup. Just as much as they need goals on the top end from Shane Pinto and Drake Batherson, they need Michael Amadio and Warren Foegele being rewarded for their efforts. Foegele has shown to be a great acquisition for the Sens since the trade deadline. His speed, and ability to take pucks to the net have proven invaluable. In the seven games since being acquired from the Los Angeles Kings, Foegele has three goals and a helper to show, on the scoresheet.
Meanwhile for the Leafs, despite the poor season overall, they still have their offensive star power. Guys like William Nylander and Matthew Knies, can and will strike at anytime. They are one-two in Leaf scoring, and have combined for 120 points in 2025-26. These are the type of players that Ottawa needs to ensure don’t get passed their fence they are able to put up for most games, given their team defensive posture.
The Story for the Leafs
It is true for the Leafs, like they are currently missing Auston Matthews, but to consider the amount of talent the Leafs have missed year-over-year. Not having the high-end skill of Mitch Marner ended up being a bigger factor than management expected. Chris Tanev has only played 11 games, that has hurt their bottom-line. Even Nylander has missed a bit of time. Furthermore, Brandon Carlo hasn’t performed up to expectations. So, it has all added up in Toronto. Then, it shifted somewhat for general manager Brad Treliving in trying to pivot from contender to seller, to acquire assets in the form of prospects and loading up for next year.
Moving on from Bobby McMann was a major statement. For the stars still here, it says they believe in them. It will be interesting to see how the Leafs can bounce back next year, back to the type of playoff contender we have been accustomed to with Matthews there.
Toronto Maple Leafs Captain Auston Matthews Undergoes Knee Surgery
The Expected Starters
At this time, the starting goalies are as expected, and will be confirmed as the days goes on. However, given that veteran James Reimer played last time for Ottawa, we think it is hard to imagine their $8 million-plus goaltender Linus Ullmark doesn’t get the call. He is 21-10-7 on the campaign. Meanwhile, Anthony Stolarz is anticipated for the Leafs. He’s 8-9-3 on the season.
However, it is a great time for our disclaimer. Please check social media prior to puck drop, to see definitely who gets the nod, before setting your fantasy roster for the day.
NHL Predictions
Ottawa is trying to move up the standings, and Toronto is just going through the motions. Look for Ottawa to make a statement game, where they are clearly the more competitive team in this year’s edition of the rivalry.
Prediction: Leafs 1 – Senators 4 (in regulation).
Prop Bets
We like John Tavares to find twine for the Buds. In his 17 NHL seasons, including this year, he has scored 19-or-more goals in each campaign. He has 23 this year, to go along with 32 assists. For Ottawa, we have Brady Tkachuk to find a way through, and onto the scoresheet. One more goal gives him 20, and we look for him to pick it up tonight.
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Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
