Welcome to NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are happening and gives our predictions for each one, breaking down head-to-head matchups and other factors that may play in. Today we’re looking at the Tampa Bay Lightning against the Calgary Flames. Be sure to check out more NHL predictions every day there’s hockey this 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning (14-10-2) vs Calgary Flames (14-10-5)
Time: 9:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: ESPN+, FDSN SUN, SNW
2023-2024 Head-to-head: Calgary won 2-0
Despite their similar win-loss records, these two teams came into the season with very different expectations. The Flames were entering year two of a rebuild and appeared to be heading for the draft lottery. The Lightning on the other hand were building a cup contender. Through the first quarter of the season, both teams find themselves battling for a Wild Card spot. Let’s take a closer look at tonight’s matchup.
Flames Looking To Keep Pace In Pacific
The Calgary Flames currently sit 5th place in the Pacific Division. They are tied with the Canucks and just one point behind the Oilers, although they’ve played more games than either of the teams they are trailing. If Calgary wants to keep pace in the Pacific and have a chance at the playoffs they’ll need to improve. The Flames biggest concern thus far, has been a lack of offence. The Flames sit 28th in goals for and went 24 straight games without scoring more than three goals until they managed four against Nashville in their last outing.
Calgary is being led offensively by veterans Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri. They are also getting strong contributions from their top two defencemen, Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar. However, Huberdeau leads the Flames with just 19 points in 29 games. This is the lowest point total for any leading scorer of the 32 NHL teams. The main reason Calgary has been able to have some early season success has been their compete level and goaltending. Dustin Wolf and Daniel Vladar have given the Flames above average-goaltending this season. Their ability to keep the puck out of the net has allowed the Flames to stay in games. Calgary will need a strong goaltending performance tonight against Tampa Bay to have any chance of winning.
Tampa Bay To Contend Again
The Tampa Bay Lightning made massive offseason news after they elected not to resign captain and franchise leader in points Steven Stamkos. Instead, the Lightning signed one of the biggest offseason names, Jake Guentzel. Guentzel joined an offence that already featured stars Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, making it one of the best offences in the league. Although Tampa Bay currently sit in a wild card spot, they’ve played the fewest games in the league and they appear to be headed to the playoffs for the 8th straight season.
Tampa Bay is one of the more balanced rosters in the league. With offensive stars up front as we just mentioned, along with a solid defence group led by Norris Trophy winner Victor Headman, and a Vezina-winning goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay continues to be one of the best teams in the league. This season the Lightning have enjoyed larger contributions from Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel who both made Team Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster. The Lightning are building towards the playoffs and their success will likely come down to how well Andrei Vasilevskiy plays when they arrive.
NHL Predictions Lightning and Flames
The Flames have been solid on home ice this season. They currently sport a 10-3-1 record at the Scotiabank Saddledome. They’ve done a good job of shutting down their opponents and capitalizing on their chances to win close games. However, Tampa Bay is just a far more talented team. They have a massive edge on offence, a more experienced defence, and an edge in goaltending when Vasilevskiy is on. In the NHL, anything can happen and Calgary will fight hard, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Flames come out of this game with two points.
Prediction: Lightning Win 5-2
BET365 has the Lightning as favourites and the spread at just 1.5 goals so we’re staying away from the team action and looking at player props.
The Flames are one of the top ten most penalized teams, and with Tampa’s skill on the power play, we expect them to score at least once. We like taking hometown kid Brayden Point to score over 0.5 power play points at +310.
On the Flames, side Jonathan Huberdeau has a five-game point streak going coming into tonight’s action. There’s a good value if he keeps it going. Look at taking Huberdeau to record over 0.5 points at +195
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Main Photo: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
