The real question isn’t really can the Toronto Maple Leafs afford to sign Mitch Marner. It’s what do they have to give up to afford him. The answer is not that much. The Maple Leafs announced the signing of Mitch Marner on the first day of training camp. A six-year deal with an annual cap hit of $10.893 million per season. It was probably more than Kyle Dubas wanted to pay, but the term was also longer than Marner wanted to sign for. All in all, this deal is good for both sides in the long run. In the short term, the Maple Leafs are going to have to be creative with the cap and lucky with fringe players. Both are things they’ve already proven to be adept at.
Can The Toronto Maple Leafs Afford Mitch Marner
The Big Four
It’s not just Marner. The Maple Leafs are very top-heavy at forward. There are two players making even more than Marner. John Tavares makes $11 million a season and Auston Matthews makes $11.634 a season. Add William Nylander‘s $6.96 to that and the Maple Leafs are paying four players about $40.5 million a season. That’s just shade under 50% of the cap spent on four players.
That will only get better as the cap continues to grow. Especially when the current live television and streaming contract with Comcast ends and the NHL is looking to cash in on a new deal. This year and probably next year are going to be interesting for the Maple Leafs, although the difficult part, signing their core, is behind them.
Deals Deals Deals
“We can and we will.” Infamous words from Dubas to Elliotte Freidman after Dubas signed Tavares. Dubas’ plan isn’t a secret. He was always going to throw money at his top players and then look for bargains to fill out the line-up. He’s already hit a couple of home runs doing that. Tyler Ennis is one. He’s banking on another with Jason Spezza.
It will be a revolving door on the Maple Leafs’ fourth line for a couple of years. Maybe the bottom pairing on defence too. As it stands now, the Maple Leafs fourth line would make a combined $2.25 million, if the line is Spezza, Trevor Moore, and Nick Shore. That’s one of many possible lines, all of them will combine to make less than $3 million. Some of those players may even find themselves playing on the third line. A third line of Alexander Kerfoot, Moore, and Kasperi Kapanen would make a combined $7.4 million.
It’s possible the bottom-six combined make less than Mitch Marner. That’s Dubas’ plan. To roll out a cheap bottom-six year after year in order to afford to pay top dollar to the top six. Will it work? Only time will tell.
Long-Term Injured Reserve
Technically $40.5 isn’t 50% of the Maple Leafs’ cap space. One the season starts, Toronto will put Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, Travis Dermott, and Zach Hyman on LTIR. That will allow the Maple Leafs to go over the cap by the amount those players are earning. That’s $13.6 million. Of that number, $10.55 (Horton and Clarkson’s salaries) will stay on LTIR all season. When Hyman returns in late October, the Maple Leafs may need to tinker to remain cap compliant, but until then, they’re compliant.
According to Cap Friendly, they have a cap hit of $94.865 million. Add that $13.6 to the cap ceiling of $81.5, and the Maple Leafs can spend up to $95.1 million. It’s tight, but they fit at the moment. Expect some of the players making near the league minimum to be moved prior to Hyman’s return.
21 Man Roster?
The current cap hit of $94.865 includes 8 defencemen and 13 forwards. While it’s better to have a couple of players on standby, at least one defenceman and forward in the press box, it’s not absolutely necessary. The Maple Leafs have the advantage of having a farm team in the same city as the big club. That allows them to pull players from the farm team quickly (though this can be complicated when either the Leafs or Marlies are playing on the road). They can move them back easily too.
The NHL Salary Cap works day by day. That will allow the Maple Leafs will create cap space by sending players to the Toronto Marlies between NHL games. Expect a lot of that sort of thing this season as the team tries to maximize their space.
The Defence
What about the defence? Won’t someone please think of the defence! It’s not as bad as some may think. The Maple Leafs top four this season is set. Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Tyson Barrie (all excellent defenders) and Cody Ceci. Ceci will likely be replaced by Travis Dermott when Dermott returns from injury. Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren are still long shots to make the team, but if one or both of them do, and that will only happen if they impress, they are both cheap options. Other than Sandin and Liljegren, Dubas has assembled a pile of cheap options with the hope that at least one if not two works out. Among that group are Ben Harpur, Jordan Schmaltz, Justin Holl, and forever a Maple Leaf Martin Marincin.
It’s also a good possibility that Ceci is moved to open up even more space. His current cap hit is $4.5 million. If he doesn’t show the world the problem was the Ottawa Senators and not him, the Maple Leafs will be looking to take his salary off the roster once Dermott returns in November.
Muzzin and Barrie
Perhaps the biggest question is one that won’t be answered until the summer of 2020. Both Muzzin and Barrie will be UFAs after this season. The Maple Leafs won’t be able to re-sign both. Muzzin will be 31 and looking for a long-term deal. Someone will offer it to him. It likely won’t be the Maple Leafs. Barrie, on the other hand, will only be 29. The Maple Leafs may be willing to offer him a competitive contract, one they’ll be able to afford by giving Barrie the money they’re currently giving Muzzin. Plus maybe some of the money they’re giving Ceci.
Then the game of musical chairs starts once again. Can the Toronto Maple Leafs afford this player or that player? Dubas will sign whoever he can and then hit the road to find cheap, quality players to round out the bottom half of his roster. Judging his work will be by only one metric: Stanley Cups won.
Main Photo: TORONTO, ON – APRIL 15: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs warms up prior to action against the Boston Bruins in Game Three of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2019 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on April 15, 2019 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Bruins 3-2. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
