France vs Belgium is a heavyweight matchup of underachieving nations at Euro 2024, while Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal is seeking to avoid a shock defeat against Slovenia in the round of 16. Our panelists offer their predictions.
France vs Belgium (Monday in Dusseldorf)
Steen Kirby: Belgium have been a disaster this Euro 2024 and France haven’t been significantly better, both these teams have a chip on their shoulder at this point with the home fans unhappy in these neighboring nations. France snuck past a good Austria team 1-0 but then failed to defeat the Dutch and Poland, scoring just 2 goals in the group stages, as Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid) and company have been limited, while Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe missed the second game with a broken nose and has been far from his best this tournament. Players like midfielder Adrian Rabiot (Juventus) have offered very little in terms of finishing or moving forward, and both Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele (PSG) haven’t been consistent.
That said, this France side has a lot more top end talent, Belgium under Domenico Todesco was held to a goalless draw against Ukraine, lost to Slovakia and was only convincing at times against the lower ranked Romania. In a group they should have dominated, Belgium looked pedestrian yet again in a major tournament, and Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne hasn’t been able to link up with Romelo Lukaku, Jeremy Doku and other attacking threats. Lois Openda may need to come in for the Red Devils, who are in this stage because Koen Casteels (Wolfsburg) and an underappreciated backline and Everton’s Amadou Onana in the midfield have kept things organized and been good at controlling the run of play and blunting attacks. I expect that backline and midfield to hold up well against France, but can Lukaku, Openda, or someone else finally lift Belgium to a historic victory? It feels like this match could go to penalties or at least extra time. Prediction: France 2 Belgium 1 (after penalties)
Ben Gray: The heavyweight tie of the round comes from Düsseldorf, with these two neighbours paying the price for finishing second in their respective groups.
Many tipped France for glory this summer but, so far, Didier Deschamps’ side have been spectacularly underwhelming, first beating Austria 1-0 courtesy of an own goal, before a very drab goalless draw with Netherlands, lucky to earn a point after VAR disallowed a late Dutch winner.
Then, on Tuesday evening, needing a win to top Group D, les Bleus could only draw with already-eliminated Poland, taking the lead through Kylian Mbappé’s spot-kick, his first-ever Euros goal, only for Dayot Upamecano to give away a spot-kick towards the end, as it ended 1-1.
So, rather than taking on Türkiye in the last 16 and being on the easier side of the draw, France face a very tough potential route to the final, so will they avoid a second successive round of 16 exit at the Euros?
Belgium meantime were even more disappointing during the group stages, commencing their campaign with a shock 1-0 defeat at the hands of Slovakia, before getting off the mark against Romania; Youri Tielemans and Kevin De Bruyne the scorers in a 2-0 victory.
Then, requiring victory to top the section, Domenico Tedesco’s team could only draw 0-0 with Ukraine in Stuttgart, coming perilously close to defeat, a result that would’ve seen them crash out, indebted to goalkeeper Koen Casteels who made a few crucial saves.
Red Devils supporters were not pleased at full time, berating their players following a lifeless display, knowing an exponentially improved performance will be required if they’re to reach the last eight at a third successive Euros.
These two nations have met 75 times since first doing so in 1904, with France winning 26 of these encounters, including both of the last two, prevailing 1-0 in the World Cup semi-finals in 2018 and 3-2 in the Nations League semis three years later, coming from 2-0 down to claim victory in that one in Turin.
Of Belgium’s 30 victories over their neighbours, only four have come since 1966, with les Bleus winning all three previous tournament encounters, these in 1938, 1984 and 2018, a record they’re likely to maintain at Merkur Spiel-Arena, with Portugal or Slovenia awaiting the winners. Prediction: France 2-1 Belgium
Portugal vs Slovenia (Monday in Frankfurt)
Steen: A shock defeat against Georgia in the final match of the group stages is the only mark against Portugal in recent games, this was a Portugal team that had already qualified for this Round of 16 and was resting some players, but Roberto Martinez setup a formation that simply didn’t work and Portugal fell in a 2-0 defeat. That will be the blueprint for Slovenia, a team that needed three draws to reach this stage, the team from the Balkans scored just two goals in three games, Jan Oblak (Atletico Madrid) is really good in goal but they depend on set pieces and good luck to score goals, and that’s probably not enough against Portugal. With Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) and Pepe (Porto) two key veteran leaders for Portugal back in the lineup to lead the midfield and the backline, Portugal should reach the quarterfinals despite Martinez’s questionable performance as manager first for Belgium, and now for Portugal. Prediction: Portugal 2 Slovenia 0
Ben: Will Portugal cruise through to the quarter-finals, or will Deutsche Bank Park witness a Euros upset for the ages?
Having qualified for ten wins out of ten, Roberto Martínez’s team continued this winning streak at this tournament, coming from a goal down to beat Czechia 2-1, before a rather more comfortable 3-0 victory over Türkiye, thereby wrapping up top spot in Group F with a game to spare.
As a result, Martínez made eight changes for Wednesday’s clash with Georgia and this was evident, with A Seleção das Quinas beaten 2-0 at Arena AufSchalke, their first competitive defeat since the World Cup, albeit it has no tangible impact on their progression at this tournament.
With key figures including Pepe, Rúben Dias, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes and others rested and raring to go, most expect the Euro 2016 winners to cruise through this tie in Frankfurt.
Slovenia meantime are making their second Euros appearances, debuting in 2000, holding the unique achievement of having got through to the knockout stages, despite having never won a match at the competition.
This month, Matjaž Kek’s team have drawn all three matches, playing out 1-1s with both Denmark and Serbia, denied victory by a 96th minute equaliser in the latter, before Tuesday’s drab goalless game against England in Köln was enough to see them sneak through in third.
So, at the fourth attempt, Slovenia have reached the last 16 at a major tournament for the first time, still their sole victory at such a competition coming against Algeria in Polokwane during the 2010 World Cup.
Thus, this tie may appear to be a foregone conclusion however, back in March, these two nations met for the very first time and it was Slovenia who ran out 2-0 winners in Ljubljana, with Adam Gnezda Čerin and Timi Max Elšnik the scorers at Stadion Stožice.
That upset will provide the Slovenian supporters in attendance at Waldstadion some hope to cling onto, but Portugal should be far too strong in Frankfurt, setting up a mouthwatering quarter-final date with France or Belgium on Friday. Prediction: Portugal 2-0 Slovenia
Main Photo Credit: IMAGO Images PHOTO SPORTPIX David Catry
